Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/5762
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorallTonani, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallPinardi, N.; University of Bologna, Corso di Scienze Ambientali, Ravenna, Italyen
dc.contributor.authorallFratianni, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallPistoia, J.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallDobricic, S.; Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italyen
dc.contributor.authorallPensieri, S.; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche-ISSIA, Genova, Italyen
dc.contributor.authorallde Alfonso, M.; Puertos del Estado, Madrid, Spainen
dc.contributor.authorallNittis, K.; Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Athens, Greeceen
dc.date.accessioned2010-01-21T17:33:18Zen
dc.date.available2010-01-21T17:33:18Zen
dc.date.issued2009-12-07en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/5762en
dc.description.abstractThis paper describes the first evaluation of the quality of the forecast and analyses produced at the basin scale by the Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System (MFS) (http://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/mfs). The system produces short-term ocean forecasts for the following ten days. Analyses are produced weekly using a daily assimilation cycle. The analyses are compared with independent data from buoys, where available, and with the assimilated data before the data are inserted. In this work we have considered 53 ten days forecasts produced from 16 August 2005 to 15 August 2006. The forecast skill is evaluated by means of root mean square error (rmse) differences, bias and anomaly correlations at different depths for temperature and salinity, computing differences between forecast and analysis, analysis and persistence and forecast and persistence. The Skill Score (SS) is defined as the ratio of the rmse of the difference between analysis and forecast and the rmse of the difference between analysis and persistence. The SS shows that at 5 and 30m the forecast is always better than the persistence, but at 300m it can be worse than persistence for the first days of the forecast. This result may be related to flow adjustments introduced by the data assimilation scheme. The monthly variability of SS shows that when the system variability is high, the values of SS are higher, therefore the forecast has higher skill than persistence. We give evidence that the error growth in the surface layers is controlled by the atmospheric forcing inaccuracies, while at depth the forecast error can be interpreted as due to the data insertion procedure. The data, both in situ and satellite, are not homogeneously distributed in the basin; therefore, the quality of the analyses may be different in different areas of the basin.en
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.relation.ispartofOcean Scienceen
dc.relation.ispartofseries/5(2009)en
dc.subjectforecast and analysisen
dc.subjectdaily assimilation cycle.en
dc.titleMediterranean Forecasting System: forecast and analysis assessment through skill scoresen
dc.typearticleen
dc.description.statusPublisheden
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden
dc.description.pagenumber649-660en
dc.identifier.URLwww.ocean-sci.net/5/649/2009/en
dc.subject.INGV03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.05. Operational oceanographyen
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico1.8. Osservazioni di geofisica ambientaleen
dc.description.journalTypeN/A or not JCRen
dc.description.fulltextopenen
dc.contributor.authorTonani, M.en
dc.contributor.authorPinardi, N.en
dc.contributor.authorFratianni, C.en
dc.contributor.authorPistoia, J.en
dc.contributor.authorDobricic, S.en
dc.contributor.authorPensieri, S.en
dc.contributor.authorde Alfonso, M.en
dc.contributor.authorNittis, K.en
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentUniversity of Bologna, Corso di Scienze Ambientali, Ravenna, Italyen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentCentro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italyen
dc.contributor.departmentConsiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche-ISSIA, Genova, Italyen
dc.contributor.departmentPuertos del Estado, Madrid, Spainen
dc.contributor.departmentHellenic Centre for Marine Research, Athens, Greeceen
item.openairetypearticle-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptHellenic Centre for Marine Research, Athens, Greece-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0001-5452-3251-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0003-4765-0775-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-4983-4255-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0001-9410-5425-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-7634-8543-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.classification.parent03. Hydrosphere-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
Appears in Collections:Article published / in press
Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
os-5-649-2009.pdf923.82 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show simple item record

Page view(s) 50

366
checked on Mar 27, 2024

Download(s) 50

177
checked on Mar 27, 2024

Google ScholarTM

Check