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Confronto fra stime di pericolosità sismica in Italia
Type
Conference paper
Language
Italian
Obiettivo Specifico
Status
Published
Conference Name
Issued date
June 28, 2009
Conference Location
Bologna, Italy
Abstract
Allo scopo di valutare l’attendibilità delle stime di pericolosità sismica recentemente proposte per l’Italia sulla base
di un approccio standard basato sull’impiego di informazioni geologiche (zone sismogenetiche) e sismologiche
(catalogo sismico epicentrale), viene proposto un confronto con stime di pericolosità effettuate a partire dall’analisi
statistica delle storie sismiche di sito relative alle 1401 località per le quali esistono informazioni circa glie effetti
macrosismici osservati in occasione di almeno dieci terremoti del passato. In particolare, sono stati messi a
confronto i valori dell’accelerazione massima orizzontale del moto del suolo corrispondente ad una probabilità di
eccedenza del 10% in 50 anni dedotti con l’approccio standard, con i valori dell’intensità macrosismica
corrispondente alle stesse probabilità di eccedenza per un tempo di ritorno di 50 anni. Il confronto, effettuato con
una procedura non parametrica che non richiede l’impiego relazioni di conversione empiriche, indica che le
differenze osservate sono fortemente correlate con la geometria delle zone sismotettoniche utilizzate nell’approccio
standard. In particolare, la zonazione sembra incompleta (sembrano esistere zone “nascoste”) e a tratti troppo
grossolana (a causa della scarsità dei dati disponibili) per rappresentare adeguatamente i processi sismogenici attivi
nell’area italiana.
di un approccio standard basato sull’impiego di informazioni geologiche (zone sismogenetiche) e sismologiche
(catalogo sismico epicentrale), viene proposto un confronto con stime di pericolosità effettuate a partire dall’analisi
statistica delle storie sismiche di sito relative alle 1401 località per le quali esistono informazioni circa glie effetti
macrosismici osservati in occasione di almeno dieci terremoti del passato. In particolare, sono stati messi a
confronto i valori dell’accelerazione massima orizzontale del moto del suolo corrispondente ad una probabilità di
eccedenza del 10% in 50 anni dedotti con l’approccio standard, con i valori dell’intensità macrosismica
corrispondente alle stesse probabilità di eccedenza per un tempo di ritorno di 50 anni. Il confronto, effettuato con
una procedura non parametrica che non richiede l’impiego relazioni di conversione empiriche, indica che le
differenze osservate sono fortemente correlate con la geometria delle zone sismotettoniche utilizzate nell’approccio
standard. In particolare, la zonazione sembra incompleta (sembrano esistere zone “nascoste”) e a tratti troppo
grossolana (a causa della scarsità dei dati disponibili) per rappresentare adeguatamente i processi sismogenici attivi
nell’area italiana.
References
Akinci A., Mueller C., Malagnini L. and Lombardi A.
(2004). Seismic hazard estimate in the Alps and
Apennines (Italy) using smoothed historical seismicity
and regionalized predictive ground motion relationships,
Boll. Geofis. Teor. Appl., 45, 285-304.
Albarello D. (2007). Seismic hazard assessment:
management of uncertainty and validation. Atti della
riunione intermedia 2007. Società Italiana di Statistica,
CLEUP, Padova, 351-360.
Albarello D., Azzaro R., Barbano M.S., D’Amico S.,
D’Amico V., Rotondi R., Tuvè T. and Zonno G. (2007).
Valutazioni di pericolosità sismica in termini di
intensità macrosismica utilizzando metodi di sito.
INGV-DPC Project S1, http://esse1.mi.ingv.it/d9.html
Albarello D., Bosi V., Bramerini F., Lucantoni A., Naso G.,
Peruzza L., Rebez A., Sabetta F.and Slejko D. (2000).
Carte di Pericolosità sismica del territorio nazionale.
Quad.Geofis., 12, 1-8.
Albarello D., Camassi R. and Rebez A. (2001). Detection
of Space and Time Heterogeneity in the Completeness
of a Seismic Catalog by a Statistical Approach: An
Application to the Italian Area, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.,
91, 1694-1703.
Albarello D. and Mucciarelli M. (2002). Seismic hazard
estimates from ill-defined macroseismic data at a site,
Pure Appl. Geophys., 159, 6, 1289-1304.
Albarello D., Bramerini F., D’Amico V., Lucantoni A. and
Naso G. (2002). Italian intensity hazard maps: a
comparison of results from different methodologies,
Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl., 43, 249-262.
Albarello D., D’amico V., 2008. Testing probabilistic
seismic hazard estimates by comparison with
observations: an example in Italy. Geophys.J.Int., 175,
1088–1094, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03928.x
Algermissen S.Th., Perkins D.M., Thenhaus P.C., Hanson
S.L., Bender B.L. (1982). Probabilistic estimates of
maximum acceleration and velocity in rock in the
contiguous United States, USGS Open-File Report 82-
1033, 107 pp.
Azzaro R., Barbano M.S., Moroni A., Mucciarelli M. and
Stucchi M. (1999). The seismic history of Catania,
Journal of Seismology, 3, 235-252.
Bakun W.H. (2006). Estimating Locations and Magnitudes
of Earthquakes in Southern California from Modified
Mercalli Intensities, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 96, 1278-
1295.
Bender B. (1983). Maximum likelihood estimation of b
values for magnitude grouped data, Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am., 73, 831-851.
Bender B. and Perkins D.M. (1987). SeisriskIII: a computer
program for seismic hazard estimation. U.S.Geological
Survey, 1772, 1-48.
Carletti F. and Gasperini P. (2003). Lateral variations of
seismic intensity attenuation in Italy, Geoph. J. Int.,
155, 839-856.
Coppersmith K.J. and Youngs R.R. (1986). Capturing
Uncertainty in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessments within Intraplate Environments,
Proceedings of the Third U.S. National Conference on
Earthquake Engineering, August 24-28, 1986,
Charleston, SC, Earthquake Engineering Research
Institute, Berkeley, CA, Vol I, pp 301-312.
Cornell C.A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis,
Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58, 1583-1606.
CPTI Working Group (2004). Catalogo Parametrico dei
Terremoti Italiani, Ed. Compositori, Bologna, Italy, pp.
88, also available at
http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI/home.html
D’Amico V. and Albarello D. (2007). Codice per il calcolo
della pericolosità sismica da dati di sito: SASHA (Site
Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment). INGV-DPC
Project S1, http://esse1.mi.ingv.it/d12.html
D’Amico V. and Albarello D. (2008). SASHA: a computer
program to assess seismic hazard from intensity data,
Seism. Res. Lett., accepted.
D’Amico V., Albarello D. and Mucciarelli M. (2002).
Validation through HVSR measurements of a method
for the quick detection of site amplification from
intensity data: an application to a seismic area in
Northern Italy, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 22, 475-483.
D’Amico V., Albarello D., 2008. SASHA: a computer
program to assess seismic hazard from intensity data.
Seism.Res.Lett., 79, 5, 663-671
Electric Power Research Insititute (1986). Seismic hazard
methodology for the Central and Eastern United States,
EPRI NP-4726.
Faccioli E. and Cauzzi C. (2006). Macroseismic intensities
for seismic scenarios estimated from instrumentally
based correlations, Proc. First European Conference on
Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, paper number
569.
Faenza L., Marzocchi W. and Boschi E. (2003). A nonparametric
hazard model to characterize the spatiotemporal
occurrence of large earthquakes; an
application to the Italian catalogue, Geophys. J. Int.,
155, 521-531.
Frankel A. (1995). Mapping seismic hazard in the central
and eastern United States, Seism. Res. Lett. 66, 8-21.
Galea P., 2007. Seismic history of the Maltese islands and
considerations on seismic risk. Ann. Geophys. 50, 6,
725-740
Gallipoli M.R., Albarello D., Mucciarelli M., Lapenna V.,
Schiattarella M. and Calvano G. (2002). Hints about site
amplification effects comparing macroseismic hazard
estimate with microtremor measurements: the Agri
Valley (Italy) example, Journ. Earthq. Eng., 7, 1, 51-72.
Giardini D. (ed.) (1999). The Global seismic hazard
assessment program (GSHAP) 1992-1999, Ann. Geofis.,
42, 6, 957-1230.
Gómez J.B. and Pacheco A.F. (2004). The minimalist
model of characteristic earthquakes as a useful tool for
description of the recurrence of large earthquakes, Bull.
Seism. Soc. Am., 94, 1960-1967.
Klügel J.-U. (2005). Problems in the application of the
SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake
hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants, Engineering
Geology, 78, 285–307.
Kulkarni R.B., Youngs R.R. and Coppersmith K.J. (1984).
Assessment of the confidence intervals for results of
seismic hazard analysis. Proceedings, 8th World
Conference of Earthquake Engineering, San Francisco,
Vol.1, 263-270.
Lapajne J., Sket Motnikar B. and Zupancic P. (2003).
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Methodology
for Distributed Seismicity, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93,
2502-2515.
Leydecker G., Busche H., Bonjer K.-P., Schmitt T., Kaiser
D., Simeonova S., Solakov D., Ardeleanu L., 2008.
Probabilistic seismic hazard in terms of intensities for
Bulgaria and Romania – updated hazard maps. Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 1431–1439
Magri L., Mucciarelli M. and Albarello D. (1994).
Estimates of site seismicity rates using ill-defined
macroseismic data, Pure Appl. Geoph., 143, 618-632.
Margottini, C., Molin D. and Serva L. (1992). Intensity
versus ground motion: a new approach using Italian
data, Engineering Geology, 33, 1, 45-58.
Meletti C., Galadini F., Valensise G., Stucchi M., Basili R.,
Barba S., Vannucci G. and Boschi E. (2008). A seismic
source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of
the Italian territory, Tectonophysics 450, 85-108.
Monachesi G., Peruzza L., Slejko D. and Stucchi, M.
(1994). Seismic hazard assessment using intensity point
data. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Engin., 13, 219-226.
MPS Working Group (2004). Redazione della mappa di
pericolosità sismica prevista dall’Ordinanza PCM 3274
del 20 marzo 2003. Rapporto conclusivo per il
Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, INGV, Milano-
Roma, April 2004, 65 pp. + 5 appendices,
http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it
Mucciarelli M. (2005). What is a surprise earthquake? The
example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event, Annals
Geoph., 48, 273-278.
Mucciarelli M., Peruzza L. and Caroli P. (2000a). Tuning
of seismic hazard estimates by means of observed site
intensities. Journ. Earthq. Engin., 4, 141-159.
Mucciarelli M., Valensise G., Gallipoli M.R. and Caputo R.
(2000b). Reappraisal of A XVI century earthquake
combining historical, geological and instrumental
information, in V. Castelli (ed.) Proceedings of 1st
Workshop of E.S.C. on Historical Seismology, Macerata
(Italy), 1999.
Mucciarelli M., Albarello D., D’Amico V., 2008.
Comparison of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard estimates
in Italy. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol. 98, No. 6, pp. 2652–
2664, doi: 10.1785/0120080077
Musson R.M.W. (2005). Intensity attenuation in the UK,
Journal of Seismology 9, 73–86.
Musson R.M.W. (2006). Objective validation of seismic
hazard models. Proceedings 13th World conference on
Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, Paper n. 2492
Musson R.M.W., Coppersmith K.J., Bommer J.J.,
Deichmann N., Toro G.R., Bungum H., Cotton F.,
Scherbaum F., Slejko D. and Abrahamson N.A. (2005).
Evaluating hazard results for Switzerland and how not
to do it: A discussion of “Problems in the application of
the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake
hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants” by J-U. Kluegel,
Engineering Geology, 82, 43–55.
Papoulia J., and Slejko D. (1997). Seismic Hazard
Assessment in the Ionian Islands Based on Observed
Macroseismic Intensities, Natural Hazards 14, 179-187.
Pasolini C., Albarello D., Gasperini P., D’Amico V. and
Lolli B. (2008). The attenuation of seismic intensity in
Italy part II: modeling and validation, Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am 98, 692-708.
Slejko D., Peruzza L. and Rebez A. (1998). Seismic hazard
maps of Italy, Ann.Geofis., 41, 183-214.
Stirling M. and Petersen M. (2006). Comparison of the
historical record of earthquake hazard with seismic
hazard models for New Zealand and the Continental
United States. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 96, 6, 1978-1994.
Stucchi M., Camassi R., Rovida A., Locati M., Ercolani E.,
Meletti C., Migliavacca P., Bernardini F. and Azzaro R.
(2007). DBMI04, il database delle osservazioni
macrosismiche dei terremoti italiani utilizzate per la
compilazione del catalogo parametrico CPTI04.
http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/DBMI04/. Quaderni di
Geofisica, INGV, 49, 1-38.
Woo G. (1996). Kernel estimation method for seismic
hazard area source modeling, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 86,
353-362.
(2004). Seismic hazard estimate in the Alps and
Apennines (Italy) using smoothed historical seismicity
and regionalized predictive ground motion relationships,
Boll. Geofis. Teor. Appl., 45, 285-304.
Albarello D. (2007). Seismic hazard assessment:
management of uncertainty and validation. Atti della
riunione intermedia 2007. Società Italiana di Statistica,
CLEUP, Padova, 351-360.
Albarello D., Azzaro R., Barbano M.S., D’Amico S.,
D’Amico V., Rotondi R., Tuvè T. and Zonno G. (2007).
Valutazioni di pericolosità sismica in termini di
intensità macrosismica utilizzando metodi di sito.
INGV-DPC Project S1, http://esse1.mi.ingv.it/d9.html
Albarello D., Bosi V., Bramerini F., Lucantoni A., Naso G.,
Peruzza L., Rebez A., Sabetta F.and Slejko D. (2000).
Carte di Pericolosità sismica del territorio nazionale.
Quad.Geofis., 12, 1-8.
Albarello D., Camassi R. and Rebez A. (2001). Detection
of Space and Time Heterogeneity in the Completeness
of a Seismic Catalog by a Statistical Approach: An
Application to the Italian Area, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.,
91, 1694-1703.
Albarello D. and Mucciarelli M. (2002). Seismic hazard
estimates from ill-defined macroseismic data at a site,
Pure Appl. Geophys., 159, 6, 1289-1304.
Albarello D., Bramerini F., D’Amico V., Lucantoni A. and
Naso G. (2002). Italian intensity hazard maps: a
comparison of results from different methodologies,
Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl., 43, 249-262.
Albarello D., D’amico V., 2008. Testing probabilistic
seismic hazard estimates by comparison with
observations: an example in Italy. Geophys.J.Int., 175,
1088–1094, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03928.x
Algermissen S.Th., Perkins D.M., Thenhaus P.C., Hanson
S.L., Bender B.L. (1982). Probabilistic estimates of
maximum acceleration and velocity in rock in the
contiguous United States, USGS Open-File Report 82-
1033, 107 pp.
Azzaro R., Barbano M.S., Moroni A., Mucciarelli M. and
Stucchi M. (1999). The seismic history of Catania,
Journal of Seismology, 3, 235-252.
Bakun W.H. (2006). Estimating Locations and Magnitudes
of Earthquakes in Southern California from Modified
Mercalli Intensities, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 96, 1278-
1295.
Bender B. (1983). Maximum likelihood estimation of b
values for magnitude grouped data, Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am., 73, 831-851.
Bender B. and Perkins D.M. (1987). SeisriskIII: a computer
program for seismic hazard estimation. U.S.Geological
Survey, 1772, 1-48.
Carletti F. and Gasperini P. (2003). Lateral variations of
seismic intensity attenuation in Italy, Geoph. J. Int.,
155, 839-856.
Coppersmith K.J. and Youngs R.R. (1986). Capturing
Uncertainty in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessments within Intraplate Environments,
Proceedings of the Third U.S. National Conference on
Earthquake Engineering, August 24-28, 1986,
Charleston, SC, Earthquake Engineering Research
Institute, Berkeley, CA, Vol I, pp 301-312.
Cornell C.A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis,
Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58, 1583-1606.
CPTI Working Group (2004). Catalogo Parametrico dei
Terremoti Italiani, Ed. Compositori, Bologna, Italy, pp.
88, also available at
http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI/home.html
D’Amico V. and Albarello D. (2007). Codice per il calcolo
della pericolosità sismica da dati di sito: SASHA (Site
Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment). INGV-DPC
Project S1, http://esse1.mi.ingv.it/d12.html
D’Amico V. and Albarello D. (2008). SASHA: a computer
program to assess seismic hazard from intensity data,
Seism. Res. Lett., accepted.
D’Amico V., Albarello D. and Mucciarelli M. (2002).
Validation through HVSR measurements of a method
for the quick detection of site amplification from
intensity data: an application to a seismic area in
Northern Italy, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 22, 475-483.
D’Amico V., Albarello D., 2008. SASHA: a computer
program to assess seismic hazard from intensity data.
Seism.Res.Lett., 79, 5, 663-671
Electric Power Research Insititute (1986). Seismic hazard
methodology for the Central and Eastern United States,
EPRI NP-4726.
Faccioli E. and Cauzzi C. (2006). Macroseismic intensities
for seismic scenarios estimated from instrumentally
based correlations, Proc. First European Conference on
Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, paper number
569.
Faenza L., Marzocchi W. and Boschi E. (2003). A nonparametric
hazard model to characterize the spatiotemporal
occurrence of large earthquakes; an
application to the Italian catalogue, Geophys. J. Int.,
155, 521-531.
Frankel A. (1995). Mapping seismic hazard in the central
and eastern United States, Seism. Res. Lett. 66, 8-21.
Galea P., 2007. Seismic history of the Maltese islands and
considerations on seismic risk. Ann. Geophys. 50, 6,
725-740
Gallipoli M.R., Albarello D., Mucciarelli M., Lapenna V.,
Schiattarella M. and Calvano G. (2002). Hints about site
amplification effects comparing macroseismic hazard
estimate with microtremor measurements: the Agri
Valley (Italy) example, Journ. Earthq. Eng., 7, 1, 51-72.
Giardini D. (ed.) (1999). The Global seismic hazard
assessment program (GSHAP) 1992-1999, Ann. Geofis.,
42, 6, 957-1230.
Gómez J.B. and Pacheco A.F. (2004). The minimalist
model of characteristic earthquakes as a useful tool for
description of the recurrence of large earthquakes, Bull.
Seism. Soc. Am., 94, 1960-1967.
Klügel J.-U. (2005). Problems in the application of the
SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake
hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants, Engineering
Geology, 78, 285–307.
Kulkarni R.B., Youngs R.R. and Coppersmith K.J. (1984).
Assessment of the confidence intervals for results of
seismic hazard analysis. Proceedings, 8th World
Conference of Earthquake Engineering, San Francisco,
Vol.1, 263-270.
Lapajne J., Sket Motnikar B. and Zupancic P. (2003).
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Methodology
for Distributed Seismicity, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93,
2502-2515.
Leydecker G., Busche H., Bonjer K.-P., Schmitt T., Kaiser
D., Simeonova S., Solakov D., Ardeleanu L., 2008.
Probabilistic seismic hazard in terms of intensities for
Bulgaria and Romania – updated hazard maps. Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 1431–1439
Magri L., Mucciarelli M. and Albarello D. (1994).
Estimates of site seismicity rates using ill-defined
macroseismic data, Pure Appl. Geoph., 143, 618-632.
Margottini, C., Molin D. and Serva L. (1992). Intensity
versus ground motion: a new approach using Italian
data, Engineering Geology, 33, 1, 45-58.
Meletti C., Galadini F., Valensise G., Stucchi M., Basili R.,
Barba S., Vannucci G. and Boschi E. (2008). A seismic
source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of
the Italian territory, Tectonophysics 450, 85-108.
Monachesi G., Peruzza L., Slejko D. and Stucchi, M.
(1994). Seismic hazard assessment using intensity point
data. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Engin., 13, 219-226.
MPS Working Group (2004). Redazione della mappa di
pericolosità sismica prevista dall’Ordinanza PCM 3274
del 20 marzo 2003. Rapporto conclusivo per il
Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, INGV, Milano-
Roma, April 2004, 65 pp. + 5 appendices,
http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it
Mucciarelli M. (2005). What is a surprise earthquake? The
example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event, Annals
Geoph., 48, 273-278.
Mucciarelli M., Peruzza L. and Caroli P. (2000a). Tuning
of seismic hazard estimates by means of observed site
intensities. Journ. Earthq. Engin., 4, 141-159.
Mucciarelli M., Valensise G., Gallipoli M.R. and Caputo R.
(2000b). Reappraisal of A XVI century earthquake
combining historical, geological and instrumental
information, in V. Castelli (ed.) Proceedings of 1st
Workshop of E.S.C. on Historical Seismology, Macerata
(Italy), 1999.
Mucciarelli M., Albarello D., D’Amico V., 2008.
Comparison of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard estimates
in Italy. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol. 98, No. 6, pp. 2652–
2664, doi: 10.1785/0120080077
Musson R.M.W. (2005). Intensity attenuation in the UK,
Journal of Seismology 9, 73–86.
Musson R.M.W. (2006). Objective validation of seismic
hazard models. Proceedings 13th World conference on
Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, Paper n. 2492
Musson R.M.W., Coppersmith K.J., Bommer J.J.,
Deichmann N., Toro G.R., Bungum H., Cotton F.,
Scherbaum F., Slejko D. and Abrahamson N.A. (2005).
Evaluating hazard results for Switzerland and how not
to do it: A discussion of “Problems in the application of
the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake
hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants” by J-U. Kluegel,
Engineering Geology, 82, 43–55.
Papoulia J., and Slejko D. (1997). Seismic Hazard
Assessment in the Ionian Islands Based on Observed
Macroseismic Intensities, Natural Hazards 14, 179-187.
Pasolini C., Albarello D., Gasperini P., D’Amico V. and
Lolli B. (2008). The attenuation of seismic intensity in
Italy part II: modeling and validation, Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am 98, 692-708.
Slejko D., Peruzza L. and Rebez A. (1998). Seismic hazard
maps of Italy, Ann.Geofis., 41, 183-214.
Stirling M. and Petersen M. (2006). Comparison of the
historical record of earthquake hazard with seismic
hazard models for New Zealand and the Continental
United States. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 96, 6, 1978-1994.
Stucchi M., Camassi R., Rovida A., Locati M., Ercolani E.,
Meletti C., Migliavacca P., Bernardini F. and Azzaro R.
(2007). DBMI04, il database delle osservazioni
macrosismiche dei terremoti italiani utilizzate per la
compilazione del catalogo parametrico CPTI04.
http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/DBMI04/. Quaderni di
Geofisica, INGV, 49, 1-38.
Woo G. (1996). Kernel estimation method for seismic
hazard area source modeling, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 86,
353-362.
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