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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/5678
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dc.contributor.authorallConsole, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallMurru, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallFalcone, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.date.accessioned2010-01-19T13:55:50Zen
dc.date.available2010-01-19T13:55:50Zen
dc.date.issued2010-01en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/5678en
dc.descriptionThis work aims at the assessment of the occurrence probability of future earthquakes on the Italian territory, conditional to the time elapsed since the last characteristic earthquake on a fault and to the history of the following events on the neighbouring active sources.en
dc.description.abstractThis work aims at the assessment of the occurrence probability of future earthquakes on the Italian territory, conditional to the time elapsed since the last characteristic earthquake on a fault and to the history of the following events on the neighbouring active sources. We start from the estimate of the probability of occurrence in the period 2007–2036 for a characteristic earthquake on geological sources, based on a timedependent renewal model, released in the frame of Project DPC-INGV S2 (2004–2007) “Assessing the seismogenic potential and the probability of strong earthquakes in Italy”. The occurrence rate of a characteristic earthquake is calculated, taking into account both permanent (clock advance) and temporary (rate-and-state) perturbations. The analysis has been carried out on a wide area of Central and Southern Italy, containing 32 seismogenetic sources reported in the DISS 3.0.2 database. The results show that the estimated effect of earthquake interaction in this region is small if compared with the uncertainties affecting the statistical model used for the basic timedependent hazard assessment.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was partially supported for the years 2005–2007 by the Project S2—Assessing the seismogenic potential and the probability of strong earthquakes in Italy (Slejko and Valensise coord.)—S2 Project has benefited from funding provided by the Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri–Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC). Scientific papers funded by DPC do not represent its official opinion and policiesen
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.publisher.nameElsevieren
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Seismologyen
dc.relation.ispartofseries/14 (2010)en
dc.subjectStatic Coulomb stress changesen
dc.subjectBrownian passage timeen
dc.subjectRate-and-stateen
dc.subjectAssessment of the occurrence probabilityen
dc.titlePerturbation of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changesen
dc.typearticleen
dc.description.statusPublisheden
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden
dc.description.pagenumber67-77en
dc.subject.INGV04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probabilityen
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10950-008-9149-4en
dc.relation.referencesBasili R, Valensise G, Vannoli P, Burrato P, Fracassi U, Mariano S, Tiberti MM, Boschi E (2008) The Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3: summarizing 20 years of research on Italy’s earthquake geology. Tectonophysics 453:20–43. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2007.04.014 Bird P (1999) Thin-plate and thin-shell finite-element programs for forward dynamic modeling of plate deformation and faulting. Comput Geosci 25:383–394. doi:10.1016/S0098-3004(98)00142-3 Chiarabba C, Jovane L, Di Stefano R (2005) A new view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings. Tectonophysics 395(3–4):251– 268. http://legacy.ingv.it/CSI. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2004. 09.013 Console R, Murru M, Falcone G, Catalli F (2008) Stress interaction effect on the occurrence probability of characteristic earthquakes in Central Apennines. J Geophys Res 113:B08313. doi:10.1029/2007JB005418 CPTI04 (2004) Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani. http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI04/ Dieterich JH (1994) A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering. J Geophys Res 99:2601–2618. doi:10. 1029/93JB02581 DISS Working Group (2006) Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), Version 3.0.2: a compilation of potential sources for earthquakes larger than M 5.5 in Italy and surrounding areas. http://www.ingv. it/DISS/, © INGV 2005, 2006, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. King GCP, Stein RS, Lin J (1994) Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:935–953. Matthews MV, Ellsworth WL, Reasenberg PA (2002) A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92:2233–2250. doi:10.1785/0120010267 Mc Cann WR, Nishenko SP, Sykes LR, Krause J (1979) Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries. PureAppl Geophys 117:1082–1147. doi:10.1007/BF00876211 Parsons T (2004) Recalculated probability of M≥7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey. J Geophys Res 109:B05304. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667 Parsons T (2005) Significance of stress transfer in timedependent earthquake probability calculations. J Geophys Res 110:B05S02. doi:10.1029/2004JB003190 Peruzza L (2007) Note descrittive sui tempi di ricorrenza e probabilità di terremoto caratteristico nei prossimi 30 anni (dal 2007) associata alle GGsources del DISS v. 3.0.2, In OGS (ed.) Rapporti esterni: 2007/33-OGA 11 RISK, Sgonico, OGS, p. 14. Shimazaki K, Nakata T (1980) Seismic gap hypothesis: ten years later. Geophys Res Lett 7:279–282. doi:10. 1029/GL007i004p00279 Stein R, Barka A, Dieterich J (1997) Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophys J Int 128:594–604. doi:10. 1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x Toda S, Stein R, Reasenberg P, Dieterich J, Yoshida A (1998) Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities. J Geophys Res 103(B10):24,543– 24,565. doi:10.1029/98JB00765 Wessel P, Smith WHF (1998) New improved version of the Generic Mapping Tools released. Eos Trans AGU 79:579. doi:10.1029/98EO00426 Zöller G, Hainzl S (2007) Recurrence time distributions of large earthquakes in a stochastic model for coupled fault systems: the role of fault interaction. Bull Seismol Soc Am 97(5):1679–1687. doi:10.1785/0120060262en
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico3.1. Fisica dei terremotien
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.description.fulltextreserveden
dc.contributor.authorConsole, R.en
dc.contributor.authorMurru, M.en
dc.contributor.authorFalcone, G.en
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
item.openairetypearticle-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.grantfulltextrestricted-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-7385-394X-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-2554-4421-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.classification.parent04. Solid Earth-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
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