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AuthorsCrisci, G.* 
Avolio, M. V.* 
Behncke, B.* 
D'Ambrosio, D.* 
Di Gregorio, S.* 
Lupiano, V.* 
Neri, M.* 
Rongo, R.* 
Spataro, W.* 
TitlePredicting the impact of lava flows at Mount Etna (Italy)
Issue Date2009
Keywordslava flows
hazard evaluation
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous 
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous 
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous 
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks 
05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous 
05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions 
05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous 
05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous 
AbstractForecasting the time, nature and impact of future eruptions is difficult at volcanoes such as Mount Etna, in Italy, where eruptions occur from the summit and on the flanks, affecting areas distant from each other. Nonetheless, the identification and quantification of areas at risk from new eruptions is fundamental for mitigating potential human casualties and material damage. Here, we present new results from the application of a methodology to define flexible high-resolution lava invasion susceptibility maps based on a reliable computational model for simulating lava flows at Etna and on a validation procedure for assessing the correctness of susceptibility mapping in the study area. Furthermore, specific scenarios can be extracted at any time from the simulation database, for land-use and civil defence planning in the long-term, to quantify, in real-time, the impact of an imminent eruption, and to assess the efficiency of protective measures.
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