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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/5374
Authors: | Costa, A.* Dell’Erba, F.* Di Vito, M. A.* Isaia, R.* Macedonio, G.* Orsi, G.* Pfeiffer, T.* |
Title: | Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) | Journal: | Bull Volcanol | Series/Report no.: | /71(2009) | Publisher: | Springer-Verlag | Issue Date: | 2009 | DOI: | 10.1007/s00445-008-0220-3 | Keywords: | Tephra fallout hazard Tephra loading Campi Flegrei caldera |
Subject Classification: | 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.08. Sediments: dating, processes, transport 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods |
Abstract: | Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection– diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA reanalysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m2. These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area. |
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