Bayesian source inference of the 1993–1997 deformation atMount Etna (Italy) by numerical solutions

Abstract

Deformation data collected at Mount Etna from 1993 to 1997 show that the inflation of the volcano edifice is accompanied by instability of the eastern flank. We propose a 3-D finite element model including topography and lateral variations of elastic constants. Source parameters of the inflating source are constrained by a direct search followed by an appraisal stage of the sampled solutions. The instability of the eastern flank is addressed using a kinematic approach, consisting of a rigid-body translation over a prescribed area. The aim is to evaluate how source parameters are affected by sliding of the eastern flank. When sliding is accounted for, the inferred source location shifts ∼1 km SE and its strength decreases by ∼20 per cent.