Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4977
AuthorsZollo, A.* 
Iannaccone, G.* 
Lancieri, M.* 
Cantore, L.* 
Convertito, V.* 
Emolo, A.* 
Festa, G.* 
Gallovič, F.* 
Martino, C.* 
Satriano, C.* 
Gasparini, P.* 
TitleEarthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
Issue Date27-Feb-2009
Series/Report no./36 (2009)
DOI10.1029/2008GL036689
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/4977
KeywordsSeismic early warning
Southern Italy
Synthetic seismograph
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk 
AbstractWe investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead-Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S-wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.
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