Inversion of synthetic geodetic data for the 1997 Colfiorito events: clues on the effects of layering, assessment of model parameter PDFs, and model selection criteria

Abstract

The 1997 September-October Umbria-Marche sequence has been extensively studied in the past by analyzing coseismic displacement data (GPS, leveling, SAR). Here we focus on synthetic data representative of the main event of the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence and investigate the effects of a crustal layering proper to the Colfiorito area on surface displacements and inferred source features when inverting coseismic geodetic data without taking into account layering. We compare bootstrapping and NA-Bayes as tools for parameter uncertainty assessment and show how the Akaike Information Criterion can be used to select the model which is most likely to be correct. Since SAR images offer the most complete coverage of the study area, we use synthetic line-ofsight displacement data.