Relationship between accelerating seismicity and quiescence, two precursors to large earthquakes

Abstract

The Non-Critical Precursory Accelerating Seismicity Theory (PAST) has been proposed recently to explain the formation of accelerating seismicity (increase of the a-value) observed before large earthquakes. In particular, it predicts that precursory accelerating seismicity should occur in the same spatiotemporal window as quiescence. In this first combined study we start by determining the spatiotemporal extent of quiescence observed prior to the 1997Mw= 6Umbria-Marche earthquake, Italy, using the RTL (Region-Time-Length) algorithm. We then show that background events located in that spatiotemporal window form a clear acceleration, as expected by the Non-Critical PAST. This result is a step forward in the understanding of precursory seismicity by relating two of the principal patterns that can precede large earthquakes.