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Real-time evolutionary earthquake location for seismic early warning
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/98(2008)
Publisher
Seismological Society of America
Pages (printed)
1482–1494
Issued date
June 2008
Keywords
Abstract
An effective early-warning system must provide probabilistic estimates
of the location and size of a potentially destructive earthquake within a few seconds
after the event is first detected.
In this work we present an evolutionary, real-time location technique based on an
equal differential time (EDT) formulation and a probabilistic approach for describing
the hypocenter estimation. The algorithm, at each timestep, relies on the information
from triggered arrivals and not-yet-triggered stations. With just one recorded arrival,
the hypocentral location is constrained by the Voronoi cell around the first triggering
station constructed using the travel times to the not-yet-triggered stations.With two or
more triggered arrivals, the location is constrained by the intersection of the volume
defined by the Voronoi cells for the remaining, not-yet-triggered stations and the EDT
surfaces between all pairs of triggered arrivals. As time passes and more triggers become
available, the evolutionary location converges to a standard EDT location.
Synthetic tests performed using the geometry of the Irpinia seismic network,
southern Italy (ISNet), and the simulation of an evolutionary location for the 2000
Mw 6:6 Western Tottori, Japan, earthquake indicate that when a dense seismic network
is available, reliable location estimates suitable for early-warning applications
can be achieved after 1–3 sec from the first event detection. A further simulation with
an Mw 6:7 southern Greece earthquake shows that at a regional scale, the real-time
location can provide useful constraints on the earthquake position several seconds
before a non-real-time algorithm. Finally, we show that the robustness of the algorithm
in the presence of outliers can be effectively used to associate phase arrivals coming
from events occurring close in time, and we present a preliminary algorithm for event
detection.
of the location and size of a potentially destructive earthquake within a few seconds
after the event is first detected.
In this work we present an evolutionary, real-time location technique based on an
equal differential time (EDT) formulation and a probabilistic approach for describing
the hypocenter estimation. The algorithm, at each timestep, relies on the information
from triggered arrivals and not-yet-triggered stations. With just one recorded arrival,
the hypocentral location is constrained by the Voronoi cell around the first triggering
station constructed using the travel times to the not-yet-triggered stations.With two or
more triggered arrivals, the location is constrained by the intersection of the volume
defined by the Voronoi cells for the remaining, not-yet-triggered stations and the EDT
surfaces between all pairs of triggered arrivals. As time passes and more triggers become
available, the evolutionary location converges to a standard EDT location.
Synthetic tests performed using the geometry of the Irpinia seismic network,
southern Italy (ISNet), and the simulation of an evolutionary location for the 2000
Mw 6:6 Western Tottori, Japan, earthquake indicate that when a dense seismic network
is available, reliable location estimates suitable for early-warning applications
can be achieved after 1–3 sec from the first event detection. A further simulation with
an Mw 6:7 southern Greece earthquake shows that at a regional scale, the real-time
location can provide useful constraints on the earthquake position several seconds
before a non-real-time algorithm. Finally, we show that the robustness of the algorithm
in the presence of outliers can be effectively used to associate phase arrivals coming
from events occurring close in time, and we present a preliminary algorithm for event
detection.
References
Allen, R. (1982). Automatic phase pickers: their present use and future
prospects, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72, S225–S242.
Allen, R. M., and H. Kanamori (2003). The potential for earthquake early
warning in southern California, Science 300, 786–789.
Amato, A., R. Azzara, C. Chiarabba, G. B. Cimini, M. Cocco, M. Di Bona,
L. Margheriti, S. Mazza, F. Mele, G. Selvaggi, A. Basili, E. Boschi, F.
Courboulex, A. Deschamps, S. Gaffet, G. Bittarelli, L. Chiaraluce, D.
Piccinini, and M. Ripepe (1998). The 1997 Umbria-Marche, Italy,
earthquake sequence: a first look at the main shocks and aftershocks,
Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, no. 15, 2861–2864.
Bernard, P., and A. Zollo (1989). The Irpinia (Italy) 1980 earthquake: detailed
analysis of a complex normal faulting, J. Geophys. Res. 94,
no. B2, 1631–1647.
Briole, P., G. De Natale, P. Gaulon, F. Pingue, and R. Scarpa (1986). Inversion
of geodetic data and seismicity associated with the Friuli earthquake
sequence (1976–1977), Ann. Geophys. 4, 481–492.
Cichowicz, A. (1993). An automatic S-phase picker, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.
83, 180–189.
Cua, G., and T. Heaton (2007). The virtual seismologist (VS) method: a
Bayesian approach to earthquake early warning, in Earthquake Early
Warning Systems, P. Gasparini, G. Manfredi and J. Zschau (Editors),
Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
Dietz, L. (2002). Notes on configuring BINDER_EW: Earthworm’s phase
associator, http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/ew‑doc/ovr/binder
_setup.html (last accessed March 2008).
Font, Y., H. Kao, S. Lallemand, C.-S. Liu, and L.-Y. Chiao (2004). Hypocentral
determination offshore eastern Taiwan using the maximum intersection
method, Geophys. J. Int. 158, 655–675.
Fukuyama, E., W. L. Ellsworth, F. Waldhauser, and A. Kubo (2003). Detailed
fault structure of the 2000 western Tottori, Japan, earthquake
sequence, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 93, 1468–1478.
Heaton, T. H. (1985). A model for a seismic computerized alert network,
Science 228, 987–990.
Horiuchi, S., H. Negishi, K. Abe, A. Kamimura, and Y. Fujinawa (2005). An
automatic processing system for broadcasting earthquake alarms, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am. 95, 708–718.
Husen, S., E. Kissling, N. Deichmann, S. Wiemer, D. Giardini, and M.
Baer (2003). Probabilistic earthquake location in complex threedimensional
velocity models: application to Switzerland, J. Geophys.
Res. 108, no. B2, 2077, doi 10.1029/2002JB001778.
Iervolino, I., V. Convertito, M. Giorgio, G. Manfredi, and A. Zollo (2006).
Real-time risk analysis for hybrid earthquake early warning systems,
J. Earthq. Eng. 10, no. 6, 867–885.
Kanamori, H. (2005). Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation,
Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 33, 195–214.
Lee,W. H. K., and J. M. Espinosa-Aranda (2003). Earthquake early warning
systems: current status and perspectives, in Early Warning Systems for
Natural Disaster Reduction, J. Zscahu and A. N. Kuppers (Editors),
Springer, Berlin, 409–423.
Lomax, A. (2005). A reanalysis of the hypocentral location and related observations
for the great 1906 California earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am. 95, 861–877.
Lomax, A., and A. Curtis (2001). Fast, probabilistic earthquake location in
3D models using Oct-tree importance sampling, Geopys. Res. Abstr. 3,
955.
Lomax, A., J. Virieux, P. Volant, and C. Berge (2000). Probabilistic earthquake
location in 3D and layered models: introduction of a Metropolis-
Gibbs method and comparison with linear locations, in Advances in
Seismic Event Location, C. H. Thurber and N. Rabinowitz (Editors),
Kluwer, Amsterdam, 101–134.
Magotra, N., N. Ahmed, and E. Chael (1987). Seismic event detection
and source location using single station (three-component) data, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am. 77, 958–971.
Milne, J. (1886). Earthquakes and Other Earth Movements, Appelton, New
York, 361 pp.
Podvin, P., and I. Lecomte (1991). Finite difference computations of traveltimes
in very contrasted velocity models: a massively parallel approach
and its associated tools, Geophys. J. Int. 105, 271–284.
Rydelek, P., and J. Pujol (2004). Real-time seismic warning with a 2-station
subarray, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 94, 1546–1550.
Tarantola, A., and B. Vallette (1982). Inverse problems=quest for information,
J. Geophys. 50, 159–170.
Weber, E., V. Convertito, G. Iannaccone, A. Zollo, A. Bobbio, L. Cantore,
M. Corciulo, M. Di Crosta, L. Elia, C. Martino, A. Romeo, and C.
Satriano (2007). An advanced seismic network in the Southern Apennines
(Italy) for seismicity investigations and experimentation with
earthquake early warning, Seism. Res. Lett. 78, no. 6, 622–634, doi
10.1785/gssrl.78.6.622.
Weisstein, E. W. (1999). Voronoi polygon, in MathWorld: A Wolfram Web
Resource, http://mathworld.wolfram.com/VoronoiPolygon.html (last
accessed March 2008).
Withers, M., R. Aster, C. Young, J. Beiriger, M. Harris, S. Moore, and J.
Trujillo (1998). A comparison of select trigger algorithms for automated
global seismic phase and event detection, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am. 88, 95–106.
Zhou, H. (1994). Rapid 3-D hypocentral determination using a master station
method, J. Geophys. Res. 99, 15,439–15,455.
Zollo, A., M. Lancieri, and S. Nielsen (2006). Earthquake magnitude estimation
from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong
motion records, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L233112, doi 10.1029/
2006GL027795.
prospects, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72, S225–S242.
Allen, R. M., and H. Kanamori (2003). The potential for earthquake early
warning in southern California, Science 300, 786–789.
Amato, A., R. Azzara, C. Chiarabba, G. B. Cimini, M. Cocco, M. Di Bona,
L. Margheriti, S. Mazza, F. Mele, G. Selvaggi, A. Basili, E. Boschi, F.
Courboulex, A. Deschamps, S. Gaffet, G. Bittarelli, L. Chiaraluce, D.
Piccinini, and M. Ripepe (1998). The 1997 Umbria-Marche, Italy,
earthquake sequence: a first look at the main shocks and aftershocks,
Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, no. 15, 2861–2864.
Bernard, P., and A. Zollo (1989). The Irpinia (Italy) 1980 earthquake: detailed
analysis of a complex normal faulting, J. Geophys. Res. 94,
no. B2, 1631–1647.
Briole, P., G. De Natale, P. Gaulon, F. Pingue, and R. Scarpa (1986). Inversion
of geodetic data and seismicity associated with the Friuli earthquake
sequence (1976–1977), Ann. Geophys. 4, 481–492.
Cichowicz, A. (1993). An automatic S-phase picker, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.
83, 180–189.
Cua, G., and T. Heaton (2007). The virtual seismologist (VS) method: a
Bayesian approach to earthquake early warning, in Earthquake Early
Warning Systems, P. Gasparini, G. Manfredi and J. Zschau (Editors),
Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
Dietz, L. (2002). Notes on configuring BINDER_EW: Earthworm’s phase
associator, http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/ew‑doc/ovr/binder
_setup.html (last accessed March 2008).
Font, Y., H. Kao, S. Lallemand, C.-S. Liu, and L.-Y. Chiao (2004). Hypocentral
determination offshore eastern Taiwan using the maximum intersection
method, Geophys. J. Int. 158, 655–675.
Fukuyama, E., W. L. Ellsworth, F. Waldhauser, and A. Kubo (2003). Detailed
fault structure of the 2000 western Tottori, Japan, earthquake
sequence, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 93, 1468–1478.
Heaton, T. H. (1985). A model for a seismic computerized alert network,
Science 228, 987–990.
Horiuchi, S., H. Negishi, K. Abe, A. Kamimura, and Y. Fujinawa (2005). An
automatic processing system for broadcasting earthquake alarms, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am. 95, 708–718.
Husen, S., E. Kissling, N. Deichmann, S. Wiemer, D. Giardini, and M.
Baer (2003). Probabilistic earthquake location in complex threedimensional
velocity models: application to Switzerland, J. Geophys.
Res. 108, no. B2, 2077, doi 10.1029/2002JB001778.
Iervolino, I., V. Convertito, M. Giorgio, G. Manfredi, and A. Zollo (2006).
Real-time risk analysis for hybrid earthquake early warning systems,
J. Earthq. Eng. 10, no. 6, 867–885.
Kanamori, H. (2005). Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation,
Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 33, 195–214.
Lee,W. H. K., and J. M. Espinosa-Aranda (2003). Earthquake early warning
systems: current status and perspectives, in Early Warning Systems for
Natural Disaster Reduction, J. Zscahu and A. N. Kuppers (Editors),
Springer, Berlin, 409–423.
Lomax, A. (2005). A reanalysis of the hypocentral location and related observations
for the great 1906 California earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am. 95, 861–877.
Lomax, A., and A. Curtis (2001). Fast, probabilistic earthquake location in
3D models using Oct-tree importance sampling, Geopys. Res. Abstr. 3,
955.
Lomax, A., J. Virieux, P. Volant, and C. Berge (2000). Probabilistic earthquake
location in 3D and layered models: introduction of a Metropolis-
Gibbs method and comparison with linear locations, in Advances in
Seismic Event Location, C. H. Thurber and N. Rabinowitz (Editors),
Kluwer, Amsterdam, 101–134.
Magotra, N., N. Ahmed, and E. Chael (1987). Seismic event detection
and source location using single station (three-component) data, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am. 77, 958–971.
Milne, J. (1886). Earthquakes and Other Earth Movements, Appelton, New
York, 361 pp.
Podvin, P., and I. Lecomte (1991). Finite difference computations of traveltimes
in very contrasted velocity models: a massively parallel approach
and its associated tools, Geophys. J. Int. 105, 271–284.
Rydelek, P., and J. Pujol (2004). Real-time seismic warning with a 2-station
subarray, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 94, 1546–1550.
Tarantola, A., and B. Vallette (1982). Inverse problems=quest for information,
J. Geophys. 50, 159–170.
Weber, E., V. Convertito, G. Iannaccone, A. Zollo, A. Bobbio, L. Cantore,
M. Corciulo, M. Di Crosta, L. Elia, C. Martino, A. Romeo, and C.
Satriano (2007). An advanced seismic network in the Southern Apennines
(Italy) for seismicity investigations and experimentation with
earthquake early warning, Seism. Res. Lett. 78, no. 6, 622–634, doi
10.1785/gssrl.78.6.622.
Weisstein, E. W. (1999). Voronoi polygon, in MathWorld: A Wolfram Web
Resource, http://mathworld.wolfram.com/VoronoiPolygon.html (last
accessed March 2008).
Withers, M., R. Aster, C. Young, J. Beiriger, M. Harris, S. Moore, and J.
Trujillo (1998). A comparison of select trigger algorithms for automated
global seismic phase and event detection, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am. 88, 95–106.
Zhou, H. (1994). Rapid 3-D hypocentral determination using a master station
method, J. Geophys. Res. 99, 15,439–15,455.
Zollo, A., M. Lancieri, and S. Nielsen (2006). Earthquake magnitude estimation
from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong
motion records, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L233112, doi 10.1029/
2006GL027795.
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