Bayesian source inference of the 1993-97 deformation at Mount Etna (Italy) by numerical solutions

Abstract

Deformation data collected at Mount Etna from 1993 to 1997 show that the volcano edifice inflation is accompanied by instability of the eastern flank. We propose a 3D finite element model including lateral variations of material properties and topography. Source parameters of the inflating source are constrained by a direct search followed by an appraisal stage of the sampled solutions. The instability of the eastern flank is here addressed using a kinematic approach consisting in a rigid translation of a prescribed area. Our aim is to evaluate how the inflating source inference is affected by eastern flank sliding. Our results show that when sliding is accounted for, the inferred source location is shifted by ∼ 1 km toward SE and its strength decreased by ∼ 20%.