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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4677

Authors: Marzocchi, W.*
Selva, J.*
Sandri, L.*
Editors: Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia
Zollo, A.; Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Università Federico II, Napoli, Italy
Title: Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting: the Bayesian Event Tree approach
Issue Date: 2008
Keywords: Bayesian Event Tree
Probabilistic volcanic hazard
Probabilistic eruption Forecasting
Abstract: The purpose of this report is to discuss in detail the importance and prerogatives of quantitative volcanic hazard assessment and to describe the main features of a Bayesian model designed to achieve this goal. Ideas, models and results come out from the work made in the framework of the INGV-DPC V4 project, and partially from the application of the technique to Campi Flegrei (V3_2) and Vesuvius (V3_4). Here, we examine in depth the practical and philosophical implications of the approach, and report only a brief summary of the technical details that can be found on the cited literature.
Appears in Collections:Book chapters
04.08.08. Volcanic risk

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