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Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
3/178(2008)
Publisher
Elsevier
Pages (printed)
397-415
Issued date
2008
Abstract
Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and
organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this
basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field
data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of
risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence
had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a
Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of
detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of
volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The
Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to
quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach,
exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions
for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert
elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative
approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and
elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each
of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards
right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its
parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and
mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new
information becomes available
organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this
basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field
data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of
risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence
had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a
Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of
detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of
volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The
Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to
quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach,
exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions
for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert
elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative
approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and
elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each
of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards
right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its
parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and
mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new
information becomes available
References
Acocella, V., Porreca, M., Neri, M., Massimi, E., Mattei, M., 2006. Propagation of dikes at
Vesuvio (Italy) and the effect of Mt. Somma. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L08301.
doi:10.1029/2005GL025590.
Andronico, D., Cioni, R., 2002. Contrasting styles of Mount Vesuvius activity in the
period between the Avellino and Pompeii Plinian eruptions, and some implications
for assessment of future hazards. Bull. Volcanol. 64, 372–391.
Arrighi, S., Principe, C., Rosi, M., 2001. Violent strombolian and subplinian eruptions at
Vesuvius during post-1631 activity. Bull. Volcanol. 63, 126–150.
Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard
and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M., Coles, S.G., Connor, C.B.,
Connor, L.J. (Eds.), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf
of IAVCEI, pp. 15–30.
Aspinall,W.P., Loughlin, S.C., Michael, F.V., Miller, A.D., Norton, G.E., Rowley, K.C., Sparks,
R.S.J., Young, S.R., 2002. The Montserrat Volcano Observatory: its evolution,
organisation, role and activities. In: Druitt, T.H., Kokelaar, B.P. (Eds.), The Eruption
of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Memoir no. 21.
Geological Society, London, pp. 71–92.
Barsotti, S., Neri, A., Scire, J., 2008. VOL-CALPUFF model for atmospheric ash dispersal: 1.
Approach and physical formulation. J. Geophys. Res. 113. doi:10.1029/2006JB004623.
Baxter, P.J., Boyle, R., Cole, P., Neri, A., Spence, R.S., Zuccaro, G., 2005. The impacts of
pyroclastic surges on buildings at the eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano,
Montserrat. Bull. Volcanol. 67, 292–313.
Baxter, P.J., Aspinall,W.P., Neri, A., Zuccaro, G., Spence, R.S., Cioni, R., Woo, G., 2008-this
issue. Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based
approach, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.
Bertagnini, A., Landi, P., Santacroce, R., Sbrana, A., 1998. The Pomici di Base Plinian
eruption of Somma Vesuvius. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 83, 219–239.
Bertagnini, A., Cioni, R., Guidoboni, E., Rosi, M., Neri, A., Boschi, E., 2006. Eruption
early warning at Vesuvius: The A.D. 1631 lesson. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L18317.
doi:10.1029/2006GL027297.
Bisson, M., Pareschi, M.T., Zanchetta, G., Sulpizio, R., Santacroce, R., 2006. Volcaniclastic
debris flow occurrences in the Campania Region (southern Italy) and their relation
to Holocene–Late Pleistocene pyroclastic fall deposits: implications for large scale
hazard mapping. Bull. Volcanol. 70 (2), 157–167.
Cioni, R., 2000. Volatile content and degassing processes in the AD 79 magma chamber
at Vesuvius (Italy). Contrib. Mineral. Petrol. 140 (1), 40–54.
Cioni, R., Santacroce, R., Sbrana, A., 1999. Pyroclastic deposits as a guide for
reconstructing the multi-stage evolution of the Somma–Vesuvius caldera. Bull.
Volcanol. 60, 207–222.
Cioni, R., Longo, A., Macedonio, G., Santacroce, R., Sbrana, A., Sulpizio, R., Andronico, D.,
2003. Assessing pyroclastic fall hazard through field data and numerical simulations:
example from Vesuvius. J. Geophys. Res. 108, 2063. doi:10.1029/2002JB002251.
Cioni,R.,Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., and Andronico, D., 2008-this issue. Explosive activity
and eruption scenarios at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): Towards a new classification
scheme. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.04.024.
Cooke, R.M., 1991. Experts in Uncertainty. Oxford University Press. 321 pp.
Cooke, R.M., Solomatine, D., 1992. EXCALIBR integrated system for processing expert
judgements version 3.0, user's manual. Directorate-General XII. Delft University of
Technology, Delft.
Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for
transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241, 634–647.
De 'Michieli Vitturi, M., Esposti Ongaro, T., Neri, A., 2007. A Lagrangian model for
ballistics. Proceeding of the IUGG 2007 Conference, Perugia July 2007.
DPC, 1995. Pianificazione Nazionale d'Emergenza dell'Area Vesuviana. Dipartimento
della Protezione Civile, Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Rome. 157 pp. (in
Italian).
DPC, 2001. Proposta di aggiornamento della Pianificazione Nazionale d'Emergenza
dell'Area Vesuviana. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Presidenza del Consiglio
dei Ministri, Rome. 55 pp. (in Italian).
Esposti Ongaro, T., Cavazzoni, C., Erbacci, G., Neri, A., Salvetti, M.V., 2007. A parallel
multiphase flow code for the 3D simulation of explosive volcanic eruptions. Parallel
Comput. 33 (7–8), 541–560.
Esposti Ongaro, T., Clarke, A., Neri, A., Voight, B., Widiwijayanti, C., 2008. Fluid-dynamics
of the 1997 boxing day lateral blast of Soufriere Hills volcano (Montserrat, WI). J.
Geophys. Res 113, B03211.
Esposti Ongaro, T., Neri, A., Menconi, G., De'Michieli Vitturi, M., Marianelli, P., Cavazzoni,
C., Erbacci, G., and Baxter, P.J. Transient 3D numerical simulations of column
collapse and pyroclastic density current scenarios at Vesuvius. J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., this issue.
Favalli, M., Pareschi, M.T., Zanchetta, G., 2006. Simulation of syn-eruptive floods in the
circumvesuvian plain (Southern Italy). Bull. Volcanol. 6, 349–362.
Guidoboni, E., 2004. Analysis of three coeval Treatises on the 1631 Vesuvius eruption,
finalised to the evidence of the precursors: Gregorio Carafa, Giovan Battista
Mascolo, Salvatore Varonius, internal report, D2.4 of the EC Project: explosive
eruption risk and decision support for EU population threatened by volcanoes,
EXPLORIS, contract no. CT-EVR1-2002-40026, INGV Pisaavailable at http://www.
sga-storiageo.it/vesuvius_precursors_1631.pdf2004.
Guidoboni, E., 2008-this issue. Vesuvius: An historical approach to the 1631 Vesuvius
eruption – “Cold data” from the analysis of three contemporary treatises.
J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.
Hincks, T.K. 2007. Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard and Risk Assessment. Unpublished Ph.
D. thesis, Bristol University, UK, 234pp.
Lirer, L., Pescatore, T., Booth, B., Walker, G.P.L., 1973. Two Plinian pumice-fall deposits
from Somma–Vesuvius, Italy. Geol. Soc. Amer. Bull. 84, 759–772.
Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash
fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31, 837–845.
Macedonio, G., Costa, A., and Folch, A., 2008-this issue. Ash fallout scenarios at
Vesuvius: Numerical simulations and implications for hazard assessment. J.
Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., this issue.
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Gasparini, P., Newhall, C., Boschi, E., 2004. Quantifying
probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius.
J. Geophys. Res. 109, B11201. doi:10.1029/2004JB003155.
Marzocchi,W., Neri, A., Newhall, C.G., Papale, P., 2007. Probabilistic volcanic hazard and
risk assessment. Eos Tran. AGU 88 (32), 318.
Marzocchi,W., Sandri, L., Selva, J., 2008. BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and shortterm
eruption forecasting. Bull. Volcanol 70, 623–632.
Milia, A., Torrente, M.M., Zuppetta, A., 2003. Offshore debris avalanches at Somma–
Vesuvius volcano (Italy): implications for hazard evaluation. J. Geol. Soc. (Lond.)
160, 309–317.
Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation
of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108,
2202. doi:10.1029/2001JB000508.
Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Menconi, G., De, 'Michieli Vitturi, M., Cavazzoni, C., Erbacci,
G., Baxter, P.J., 2007. 4D simulation of explosive eruption dynamics at Vesuvius.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L04309. doi:10.1029/2006GL028597.
Newhall, C.G., Hoblitt, R.P., 2002. Constructing event trees for volcanic crises. Bull.
Volcanol 64, 3–20.
Papale, P., 2001. The dynamics of magma flow in volcanic conduits with variable
fragmentation efficiency and non-equilibrium pumice degassing. J. Geophys. Res.
106, 11043–11065.
Papale, P., Longo, A., 2008-this issue. Vent conditions for expected eruptions at
Vesuvius. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.05.012.
Pareschi, M.T., Santacroce, R., Favalli, M., Giannini, F., Bisson, M., Meriggi, A., Cavarra, L.,
2000. Un GIS per il Vesuvio. Felici Editori, Pisa.
Rolandi, G., Barrella, A.M., Borrelli, A., 1993. The 1631 eruption of Vesuvius. J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res. 58, 183–201.
Rolandi, G., Bellucci, F., Cortini, M., 2004. A new model for the formation of the Somma
Caldera. Mineral. Petrol. 80, 27–44. doi:10.1007/s00710-003-0018-0.
Rosi,M., Principe, C., Vecci, R.,1993. The 1631 eruption of Vesuvius reconstructed from the
review of chronicles and study of deposits. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 58, 151–182.
Santacroce, R., 1987. Somma Vesuvius. Quaderni de La Ricerca Scientifica, vol. 17. Cons.
Naz. delle Ric., Rome. 251 pp.
Scandone, R., Giacomelli, L., Gasparini, P., 1993. Mt. Vesuvius: 2000 years of volcanological
observations. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 58, 5–26.
Sigurdsson, H., Carey, S., Cornell, W., Pescatore, T., 1985. The eruption of Vesuvius in AD
79. Natl. Geogr. Res. 1, 332–387.
Simkin, T., 1993. Terrestrial volcanism in space and time. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 21,
427–452.
Sparks, R.S.J., Aspinall, W.P., 2004. Volcanic activity: frontiers and challenges in
forecasting prediction and risk assessment. In: Sparks, R.S.J., Hawkesworth, C.J.
(Eds.), The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. . Geophysical
Monograph, vol. 19. IUGG, pp. 359–373.
Spence, R.S., Kelman, I., Baxter, P.J., Zuccaro, G., Petrazzuoli, S., 2005a. Residential
building and occupant vulnerability to tephra fall. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 5,
477–494.
Spence, R.S., Kelman, I., Calogero, E., Toyos, G., Baxter, P.J., Komorowski, J.C., 2005b.
Modelling expected physical impacts and human casualties from explosive volcanic
eruptions. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 5, 1003–1015.
Ventura, G., Vilardo, G., Bruno, P.P., 1999. The role of flank failure in modifying the
shallow plumbing system of volcanoes: an example from Somma–Vesuvius, Italy.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 3681–3684.
Woo, G.,1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London.
292 pp.
Zuccaro,G., Cacace, F., Spence,R.S., andBaxter, P.J., 2008-this issue. Impact of explosive eruption
scenarios at Vesuvius, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.01.0005.
Vesuvio (Italy) and the effect of Mt. Somma. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L08301.
doi:10.1029/2005GL025590.
Andronico, D., Cioni, R., 2002. Contrasting styles of Mount Vesuvius activity in the
period between the Avellino and Pompeii Plinian eruptions, and some implications
for assessment of future hazards. Bull. Volcanol. 64, 372–391.
Arrighi, S., Principe, C., Rosi, M., 2001. Violent strombolian and subplinian eruptions at
Vesuvius during post-1631 activity. Bull. Volcanol. 63, 126–150.
Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard
and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M., Coles, S.G., Connor, C.B.,
Connor, L.J. (Eds.), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf
of IAVCEI, pp. 15–30.
Aspinall,W.P., Loughlin, S.C., Michael, F.V., Miller, A.D., Norton, G.E., Rowley, K.C., Sparks,
R.S.J., Young, S.R., 2002. The Montserrat Volcano Observatory: its evolution,
organisation, role and activities. In: Druitt, T.H., Kokelaar, B.P. (Eds.), The Eruption
of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Memoir no. 21.
Geological Society, London, pp. 71–92.
Barsotti, S., Neri, A., Scire, J., 2008. VOL-CALPUFF model for atmospheric ash dispersal: 1.
Approach and physical formulation. J. Geophys. Res. 113. doi:10.1029/2006JB004623.
Baxter, P.J., Boyle, R., Cole, P., Neri, A., Spence, R.S., Zuccaro, G., 2005. The impacts of
pyroclastic surges on buildings at the eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano,
Montserrat. Bull. Volcanol. 67, 292–313.
Baxter, P.J., Aspinall,W.P., Neri, A., Zuccaro, G., Spence, R.S., Cioni, R., Woo, G., 2008-this
issue. Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based
approach, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.
Bertagnini, A., Landi, P., Santacroce, R., Sbrana, A., 1998. The Pomici di Base Plinian
eruption of Somma Vesuvius. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 83, 219–239.
Bertagnini, A., Cioni, R., Guidoboni, E., Rosi, M., Neri, A., Boschi, E., 2006. Eruption
early warning at Vesuvius: The A.D. 1631 lesson. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L18317.
doi:10.1029/2006GL027297.
Bisson, M., Pareschi, M.T., Zanchetta, G., Sulpizio, R., Santacroce, R., 2006. Volcaniclastic
debris flow occurrences in the Campania Region (southern Italy) and their relation
to Holocene–Late Pleistocene pyroclastic fall deposits: implications for large scale
hazard mapping. Bull. Volcanol. 70 (2), 157–167.
Cioni, R., 2000. Volatile content and degassing processes in the AD 79 magma chamber
at Vesuvius (Italy). Contrib. Mineral. Petrol. 140 (1), 40–54.
Cioni, R., Santacroce, R., Sbrana, A., 1999. Pyroclastic deposits as a guide for
reconstructing the multi-stage evolution of the Somma–Vesuvius caldera. Bull.
Volcanol. 60, 207–222.
Cioni, R., Longo, A., Macedonio, G., Santacroce, R., Sbrana, A., Sulpizio, R., Andronico, D.,
2003. Assessing pyroclastic fall hazard through field data and numerical simulations:
example from Vesuvius. J. Geophys. Res. 108, 2063. doi:10.1029/2002JB002251.
Cioni,R.,Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., and Andronico, D., 2008-this issue. Explosive activity
and eruption scenarios at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): Towards a new classification
scheme. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.04.024.
Cooke, R.M., 1991. Experts in Uncertainty. Oxford University Press. 321 pp.
Cooke, R.M., Solomatine, D., 1992. EXCALIBR integrated system for processing expert
judgements version 3.0, user's manual. Directorate-General XII. Delft University of
Technology, Delft.
Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for
transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241, 634–647.
De 'Michieli Vitturi, M., Esposti Ongaro, T., Neri, A., 2007. A Lagrangian model for
ballistics. Proceeding of the IUGG 2007 Conference, Perugia July 2007.
DPC, 1995. Pianificazione Nazionale d'Emergenza dell'Area Vesuviana. Dipartimento
della Protezione Civile, Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Rome. 157 pp. (in
Italian).
DPC, 2001. Proposta di aggiornamento della Pianificazione Nazionale d'Emergenza
dell'Area Vesuviana. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Presidenza del Consiglio
dei Ministri, Rome. 55 pp. (in Italian).
Esposti Ongaro, T., Cavazzoni, C., Erbacci, G., Neri, A., Salvetti, M.V., 2007. A parallel
multiphase flow code for the 3D simulation of explosive volcanic eruptions. Parallel
Comput. 33 (7–8), 541–560.
Esposti Ongaro, T., Clarke, A., Neri, A., Voight, B., Widiwijayanti, C., 2008. Fluid-dynamics
of the 1997 boxing day lateral blast of Soufriere Hills volcano (Montserrat, WI). J.
Geophys. Res 113, B03211.
Esposti Ongaro, T., Neri, A., Menconi, G., De'Michieli Vitturi, M., Marianelli, P., Cavazzoni,
C., Erbacci, G., and Baxter, P.J. Transient 3D numerical simulations of column
collapse and pyroclastic density current scenarios at Vesuvius. J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., this issue.
Favalli, M., Pareschi, M.T., Zanchetta, G., 2006. Simulation of syn-eruptive floods in the
circumvesuvian plain (Southern Italy). Bull. Volcanol. 6, 349–362.
Guidoboni, E., 2004. Analysis of three coeval Treatises on the 1631 Vesuvius eruption,
finalised to the evidence of the precursors: Gregorio Carafa, Giovan Battista
Mascolo, Salvatore Varonius, internal report, D2.4 of the EC Project: explosive
eruption risk and decision support for EU population threatened by volcanoes,
EXPLORIS, contract no. CT-EVR1-2002-40026, INGV Pisaavailable at http://www.
sga-storiageo.it/vesuvius_precursors_1631.pdf2004.
Guidoboni, E., 2008-this issue. Vesuvius: An historical approach to the 1631 Vesuvius
eruption – “Cold data” from the analysis of three contemporary treatises.
J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.
Hincks, T.K. 2007. Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard and Risk Assessment. Unpublished Ph.
D. thesis, Bristol University, UK, 234pp.
Lirer, L., Pescatore, T., Booth, B., Walker, G.P.L., 1973. Two Plinian pumice-fall deposits
from Somma–Vesuvius, Italy. Geol. Soc. Amer. Bull. 84, 759–772.
Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash
fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31, 837–845.
Macedonio, G., Costa, A., and Folch, A., 2008-this issue. Ash fallout scenarios at
Vesuvius: Numerical simulations and implications for hazard assessment. J.
Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., this issue.
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Gasparini, P., Newhall, C., Boschi, E., 2004. Quantifying
probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius.
J. Geophys. Res. 109, B11201. doi:10.1029/2004JB003155.
Marzocchi,W., Neri, A., Newhall, C.G., Papale, P., 2007. Probabilistic volcanic hazard and
risk assessment. Eos Tran. AGU 88 (32), 318.
Marzocchi,W., Sandri, L., Selva, J., 2008. BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and shortterm
eruption forecasting. Bull. Volcanol 70, 623–632.
Milia, A., Torrente, M.M., Zuppetta, A., 2003. Offshore debris avalanches at Somma–
Vesuvius volcano (Italy): implications for hazard evaluation. J. Geol. Soc. (Lond.)
160, 309–317.
Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation
of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108,
2202. doi:10.1029/2001JB000508.
Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Menconi, G., De, 'Michieli Vitturi, M., Cavazzoni, C., Erbacci,
G., Baxter, P.J., 2007. 4D simulation of explosive eruption dynamics at Vesuvius.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L04309. doi:10.1029/2006GL028597.
Newhall, C.G., Hoblitt, R.P., 2002. Constructing event trees for volcanic crises. Bull.
Volcanol 64, 3–20.
Papale, P., 2001. The dynamics of magma flow in volcanic conduits with variable
fragmentation efficiency and non-equilibrium pumice degassing. J. Geophys. Res.
106, 11043–11065.
Papale, P., Longo, A., 2008-this issue. Vent conditions for expected eruptions at
Vesuvius. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.05.012.
Pareschi, M.T., Santacroce, R., Favalli, M., Giannini, F., Bisson, M., Meriggi, A., Cavarra, L.,
2000. Un GIS per il Vesuvio. Felici Editori, Pisa.
Rolandi, G., Barrella, A.M., Borrelli, A., 1993. The 1631 eruption of Vesuvius. J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res. 58, 183–201.
Rolandi, G., Bellucci, F., Cortini, M., 2004. A new model for the formation of the Somma
Caldera. Mineral. Petrol. 80, 27–44. doi:10.1007/s00710-003-0018-0.
Rosi,M., Principe, C., Vecci, R.,1993. The 1631 eruption of Vesuvius reconstructed from the
review of chronicles and study of deposits. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 58, 151–182.
Santacroce, R., 1987. Somma Vesuvius. Quaderni de La Ricerca Scientifica, vol. 17. Cons.
Naz. delle Ric., Rome. 251 pp.
Scandone, R., Giacomelli, L., Gasparini, P., 1993. Mt. Vesuvius: 2000 years of volcanological
observations. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 58, 5–26.
Sigurdsson, H., Carey, S., Cornell, W., Pescatore, T., 1985. The eruption of Vesuvius in AD
79. Natl. Geogr. Res. 1, 332–387.
Simkin, T., 1993. Terrestrial volcanism in space and time. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 21,
427–452.
Sparks, R.S.J., Aspinall, W.P., 2004. Volcanic activity: frontiers and challenges in
forecasting prediction and risk assessment. In: Sparks, R.S.J., Hawkesworth, C.J.
(Eds.), The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics. . Geophysical
Monograph, vol. 19. IUGG, pp. 359–373.
Spence, R.S., Kelman, I., Baxter, P.J., Zuccaro, G., Petrazzuoli, S., 2005a. Residential
building and occupant vulnerability to tephra fall. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 5,
477–494.
Spence, R.S., Kelman, I., Calogero, E., Toyos, G., Baxter, P.J., Komorowski, J.C., 2005b.
Modelling expected physical impacts and human casualties from explosive volcanic
eruptions. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 5, 1003–1015.
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