Earthquake shaking scenarios for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon

Abstract

In this study, we simulate and compare ground motion shaking in the city of Lisbon and surrounding counties (metropolitan area of Lisbon (MAL)), using two possible earthquake models: the onshore source area of Lower Tagus Valley, M5.7 and M4.7 and the offshore source area, Marques de Pombal Fault, M7.6, one of the possible source of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake. The stochastic and a new hybrid stochastic-deterministic approach (DSM) are used in order to evaluate the ground shaking and to characterize its spatial variability. Results are presented in terms of response acceleration spectra (PSA) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) with respect to bedrock andsurface. Site effects are evaluated by means of equivalent stochastic non-linear one-dimensional ground responses analysis, performed for a set of stratified soil profile units properly designed to cope with the soil site conditions of MAL region. A sensitive study is carried out using different input parameters and different approaches in order to give the basic information to evaluate the range of uncertainty in seismic scenarios.