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Modeling seismicity rate changes during the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (central Italy) through a rate- and state-dependent model
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/113 (2008)
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Pages (printed)
B11301
Issued date
2008
Abstract
We model the spatial and temporal pattern of seismicity during a sequence of
moderate-magnitude normal faulting earthquakes, which struck in 1997 the
Umbria-Marche sector of Northern Apennines (Italy), by applying the Dieterich (1994)
rate- and state-dependent constitutive approach. The goal is to investigate the rate of earthquake production caused by repeated coseismic stress changes computed through a 3-D elastic dislocation model in a homogeneous half-space. The reference seismicity rate is assumed time independent, and it is estimated by smoothing the seismicity that occurred in the previous decade without declustering. We propose an analytical relation for deriving the stressing rate directly from the reference seismicity rate. This allows us
to perform a tuning of the constitutive parameter As (where A accounts for the direct
effect of friction in the rate- and state-dependent model and s is the effective normal stress) into the Dieterich model through a maximum likelihood method, which yields for this seismic sequence a best fitting value equal to 0.04 MPa. Our computations show that,
although seven out of eight main shocks are located in areas of increased rate of earthquake production, numerous aftershocks are located in seismicity shadows. Our simulations point out that the adopted value of As strongly affects the pattern of both seismicity shadow and areas of enhanced rate of earthquake production. We conclude that solely accounting for static stress changes caused by the main shocks of this seismic sequence is not sufficient to forecast the complex spatial and temporal evolution of seismicity.
moderate-magnitude normal faulting earthquakes, which struck in 1997 the
Umbria-Marche sector of Northern Apennines (Italy), by applying the Dieterich (1994)
rate- and state-dependent constitutive approach. The goal is to investigate the rate of earthquake production caused by repeated coseismic stress changes computed through a 3-D elastic dislocation model in a homogeneous half-space. The reference seismicity rate is assumed time independent, and it is estimated by smoothing the seismicity that occurred in the previous decade without declustering. We propose an analytical relation for deriving the stressing rate directly from the reference seismicity rate. This allows us
to perform a tuning of the constitutive parameter As (where A accounts for the direct
effect of friction in the rate- and state-dependent model and s is the effective normal stress) into the Dieterich model through a maximum likelihood method, which yields for this seismic sequence a best fitting value equal to 0.04 MPa. Our computations show that,
although seven out of eight main shocks are located in areas of increased rate of earthquake production, numerous aftershocks are located in seismicity shadows. Our simulations point out that the adopted value of As strongly affects the pattern of both seismicity shadow and areas of enhanced rate of earthquake production. We conclude that solely accounting for static stress changes caused by the main shocks of this seismic sequence is not sufficient to forecast the complex spatial and temporal evolution of seismicity.
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A first look at the main shocks and aftershocks, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 25, 2861– 2864, doi:10.1029/98GL51842.
Antonioli, A., D. Piccinini, L. Chiaraluce, and M. Cocco (2005), Fluid flow
and seismicity pattern: Evidence from the 1997 Umbria-Marche (central
Italy) seismic sequence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L10311, doi:10.1029/
2004GL022256.
Antonioli, A., M. E. Belardinelli, A. Bizzarri, and K. S. Vogfjord (2006),
Evidence of instantaneous dynamic triggering during the seismic sequence
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doi:10.1029/2005JB003935.
Beeler, N. M., R. W. Simpson, D. A. Lockner, and S. H. Hickman (2000),
Pore fluid pressure, apparent friction and Coulomb failure, J. Geophys.
Res., 105, 25,533– 25,554, doi:10.1029/2000JB900119.
Belardinelli, M., M. Cocco, O. Coutant, and F. Cotton (1999), Redistribution
of dynamic stress during coseismic ruptures: Evidence for fault
interaction and earthquake triggering, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 14,925–
14,945, doi:10.1029/1999JB900094.
Belardinelli, M., A. Bizzarri, and M. Cocco (2003), Earthquake triggering
by static and dynamic stress change, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B3), 2135,
doi:10.1029/2002JB001779.
Chiarabba, C., and A. Amato (2003), Vp and Vp/Vs images in the Mw 6.0
Colfiorito fault region (central Italy): A contribution to the understanding
of seismotectonic and seismogenic process, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B5),
2248, doi:10.1029/2001JB001665.
Chiarabba, C., L. Jovane, and R. Di Stefano (2005), A new view of Italian
seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings, Tectonophysics,
395, 251–268, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2004.09.013.
Chiaraluce, L., W. Elsworth, C. Chiarabba, and M. Cocco (2003), Imaging
the complexity of an active normal fault system: The 1997 Colfiorito
(central Italy) case study, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B6), 2294, doi:10.1029/
2002JB002166.
Chiaraluce, L., et al. (2004), Complex normal faulting in the Apennines
thrust and fold belt: The 1997 seismic sequence in the central Italy, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am., 94, 99– 116, doi:10.1785/0120020052.
Chiodini, G., F. Frondini, C. Cardellini, F. Parello, and L. Peruzzi (2000),
Rate of diffuse carbon dioxide Earth degassing estimated from carbon
balance of regional aquifers: The case of central Apennine, Italy, J.
Geophys. Res., 105, 8423–8434.
Cocco, M., and J. R. Rice (2002), Pore pressure and poroelasticity effects in
Coulomb stress analysis of earthquake interactions, J. Geophys. Res.,
107(B2), 2030, doi:10.1029/2000JB000138.
Cocco, M., C. Nostro, and G. Ekstro¨m (2000), Static stress changes and
fault interaction during the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence, J.
Seismol., 4(4), 501–516, doi:10.1023/A:1026507917308.
Collettini, C., L. Chiaraluce, S. Pucci, M. Barchi, and M. Cocco (2005),
Looking at fault inversion matching structural geology and seismology
data, J. Struct. Geol., 27(5), 937– 942, doi:10.1016/j.jsg.2004.10.016.
Console, R., and F. Catalli (2006), A physical model for aftershocks
triggered by dislocation on a rectangular fault, Ann. Geophys., 49(6),
1259– 1273.
Console, R., and M. Murru (2001), A simple and testable model for earthquake
clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 8699 – 8711, doi:10.1029/
2000JB900269.
Console, R., M. Murru, and A. M. Lombardi (2003), Refining earthquake
clustering models, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B10), 2468, doi:10.1029/
2002JB002130.
Console, R., M. Murru, and F. Catalli (2006), Physical and stochastic
models of earthquake clustering, Tectonophysics, 417, 141–153,
doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2005.05.052.
Deschamps, A., G. Iannaccone, and R. Scarpa (1983), The Umbrian earthquake
(Italy) of 19 September 1979, Ann. Geophys., 2(1), 29– 36.
Dieterich, J. (2000), Earthquake nucleation and its relationship to earthquake
clustering, paper presented at 1st Workshop, Asia Pac. Econ.
Coop. Coop. for Earthquake Simul., Brisbane, Queensland.
Dieterich, J. H. (1992), Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate-and-state
dependent strength, Tectonophysics, 211, 115– 134, doi:10.1016/0040-
1951(92)90055-B.
Dieterich, J. H. (1994), A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production
and its application to earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 2601–
2618, doi:10.1029/93JB02581.
Ekstro¨m, G., A. Morelli, E. Boschi, and A. Dzievonski (1998),Moment tensor
analysis of the central Italy earthquake sequence of September–October
1997, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1971–1974, doi:10.1029/98GL01241.
Felzer, K., T. W. Becker, R. E. Abercrombie, G. Ekstro¨m, and J. R. Rice
(2002), Triggering of the 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake by aftershocks
of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake, J. Geophys. Res.,
107(B9), 2190, doi:10.1029/2001JB000911.
Felzer, K. R., R. E. Abercrombie, and G. Ekstro¨m (2004), A common origin
for aftershocks, foreshocks, and multiplets, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 94,
88– 98, doi:10.1785/0120030069.
Frankel, A. (1995), Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern
United States, Seismol. Res. Lett., 66(4), 8 – 21.
Gasperini, P., and G. Ferrari (2000), Deriving numerical estimates from
descriptive information: The computation of earthquake parameters,
Ann. Geophys., 43(4), 729– 746.
Gomberg, J., N. M. Beeler, and M. L. Blanpied (2000), On rate-state and
Coulomb failure models, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 7857 – 7872,
doi:10.1029/1999JB900438.
Gomberg, J., P. Reasenberg, P. Bodin, and R. Harris (2001), Earthquake
triggering by seismic waves following the Landers and Hector mine
earthquakes, Nature, 411, 462– 466, doi:10.1038/35078053.
Gomberg, J., P. Reasenberg, N. Beeler, M. Cocco, and M. E. Belardinelli
(2005a), A frictional population model of seismicity rate change, J. Geophys.
Res., 110, B05S03, doi:10.1029/2004JB003404.
Gomberg, J., P. Reasenberg, N. Beeler, M. Cocco, and M. E. Belardinelli
(2005b), Time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on population
models, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B05S04, doi:10.1029/2004JB003405.
Gross, S. (2001), A model of tectonic stress state and rate using the 1994
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