Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4132
AuthorsScollo, S.* 
Tarantola, S.* 
Bonadonna, C.* 
Coltelli, M.* 
Saltelli, A.* 
TitleSensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation for tephra dispersal models
Issue Date10-Jun-2008
Series/Report no./113 (2008)
DOI10.1029/2006JB004864
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/4132
Keywordssensitivity analysis; uncertainty estimation; tephra dispersal models; Etna; Ruapehu.
Subject Classification05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis 
AbstractSensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation are crucial to the validation and calibration of numerical models. In this paper we present the application of sensitivity analyses, parameter estimations and Monte-Carlo uncertainty analyses on TEPHRA, an advection-diffusion model for the description of particle dispersion and sedimentation from volcanic plumes. The model and the related sensitivity analysis are tested on two sub-plinian eruptions: the 22 July 1998 eruption of Etna volcano (Italy) and the 17 June 1996 eruption of Ruapehu volcano (New Zealand). Sensitivity analyses are key to (i) constrain crucial eruption parameters (e.g. total erupted mass) (ii) reduce the number of variables by eliminating non-influential parameters (e.g. particle density) and (iii) investigate the interactions among all input parameters (plume height, total grain-size distribution, diffusion coefficient, fall-time threshold and mass-distribution parameter). For the two test cases, we found that the total erupted mass significantly affects the model outputs and, therefore, it can be accurately estimated from field data of the fallout deposit, whereas the particle density can be fixed at its nominal value because it has negligible effects on the model predictions
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Scollo_et_al_2008.pdfarticle671.27 kBAdobe PDFView/Open    Request a copy
Show full item record

Page view(s)

59
checked on May 24, 2017

Download(s)

27
checked on May 24, 2017

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric