Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/3973
AuthorsBarraclogh, D. R.* 
De Santis, A.* 
TitleSome possible evidence for a chaotic geomagnetic field from observational data
Issue DateFeb-1997
Series/Report no.3-4 / 99 (1997)
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/3973
Keywordsgeomagnetic field
chaos
non-linear forecasting approach
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.03. Mantle and Core dynamics 
04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.02. Geomagnetic field variations and reversals 
AbstractThe behaviour of the geomagnetic field as observed almost continuously at three European locations over the last 130 years is investigated by means of a non-linear forecasting approach. The analysis of the data in terms of first-differences (secular variation) of the horizontal magnetic components made in phase space with the simplex technique seems to exclude the pre-eminence of any stochastic or periodic behaviour. The dimensionality of the underlying non-linear process and the corresponding largest positive Lyapunov exponent are estimated. The results give some evidence that the geomagnetic field evolves as a non-linear chaotic system with unpredictable behaviour after times greater than a few years, confirming the common practice of updating global models of the geomagnetic field every 5 years.
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