Earth-prints repository, logo   Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
 
|earth-prints home page | roma library | bologna library | catania library | milano library | napoli library | palermo library

Earth-prints >
Affiliation >
INGV >
Papers Published / Papers in press >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/3855

Share this record with your favourite social network:     Del.icio.us     Citeulike     Connotea
Facebook     Stumble it!     reddit    
Title: A local ionospheric model for forecasting the critical frequency of the F2 layer during disturbed geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions
Authors: Pietrella, M.*
Perrone, L.*
Keywords: Ionosphere
Ionosphere-Magnetosphere interactions
Ionospheric disturbances
Modeling and forecasting
Issue Date: 2008
Publisher: EGU - Copernicus Publications
Title of journal: Annales Geophysicae
Series/Report no.: / 26 (2008)
Abstract: An ionospheric forecasting empirical local model over Rome (IFELMOR) has been developed to predict the state of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) during geomagnetic storms and disturbed ionospheric conditions. Hourly measurements of foF2 obtained at the Rome observatory, hourly quiet-time values of foF2 (foF2QT), and the hourly time-weighted accumulation series derived from the geomagnetic planetary index ap (ap(tau)), were considered during the period January 1976–December 2003. Under the assumption that the ionospheric disturbance index log(foF2/foF2QT) is correlated to the integrated geomagnetic index ap(tau), statistically significant regression coefficients are obtained for different months and for different ranges of ap(tau) and used as input to calculate the short-term ionospheric forecasting of foF2. The empirical storm-time ionospheric correction model (STORM) was used to make comparisons with the IFELMOR model. A few comparisons between STORM’s performance, IFELMOR’s performance, the median measurements and the foF2QT values, were made for significant geomagnetic storm events (ap>150) occurring from 2000 to 2003. The results provided by IFELMOR are satisfactory, in particular, for periods characterized by high geomagnetic activity and very disturbed ionospheric conditions.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/3855
URL: http://www.ann-geophys.net/26/323/2008/
Appears in Collections:01.02.03. Forecasts
Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:

File Description SizeFormat
angeo-26-323-2008.pdf889.04KbAdobe PDFView/Open
  • Araujo-Pradere, E. A., Fuller-Rowell, T. J., and Codrescu, M.
  • V.: STORM: an empirical storm-time ionospheric correction
  • model:1. Model description, Radio Sci., 37(5), 1070,
  • doi:10.1029/2001RS002467, 2002.
  • Belehaki, A., Moraitis, G., and Tsagouri, I.: On the derivation of
  • an hourly local index to define the normal ionosphere, Annali di
  • Geofisica, 43(1), 189–203, 2000.
  • Bilitza, D.: IRI 2000, Radio Sci., 36(2), 261–276,
  • doi:10.1029/2000RS002432, 2001.
  • Bradley, P.: PRIME (Prediction and Retrospective Ionospheric
  • Modelling over Europe), Cost Action 238, Final Report, Rutherford
  • Appleton Laboratory, Chilton Didcot, UK, 1999.
  • Buonsanto, M. J.: Ionospheric Storms – A review, Space Sci. Rev.,
  • 88, 563–601, 1999.
  • Burns, A. G. and Killen, T. L.:. The equatorial neutral thermospheric
  • response to geomagnetic forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
  • 19, 977–980, 1992.
  • Cander, Lj. R. and Mihajlovic, S. J.: Forecasting ionospheric structure
  • during the great geomagnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res.,
  • 103(A1), 391–398, doi:10.1029/97JA02418, 1998.
  • Cander, Lj. R., Milosavljevic, M. M., Stankovic, S. S., and Tomasevic,
  • S.: Ionospheric forecasting technique by artificial neural
  • network, Electronics Lett., 34(16), 1573–1574, 1998.
  • Comite Consultatif International des Radio Communications
  • (CCIR): Atlas of ionospheric characteristics, Rep 340-6, Geneva,
  • 1991.
  • Cooper, J., Barbatsi, K., Gulyaeva, T. L., et al.: PRIME Catalogue
  • of undisturbed days No. 1 in proceedings of COST 238 Workshop,
  • Universitat Graz, Austria, Part 1, 1993.
  • Fuller-Rowell, T. J., Codrescu, M. V., Roble, R. G., and Richmond,
  • A. D.: How does the thermosphere and ionosphere react to a geomagnetic
  • storm?, in: Magnetic Storms, edited by: Tsurutani, B.
  • T., Gonzales, W. D., Kamide, Y., and Arballo, J. K., Geophysical
  • Monograph 98, American Geophysical Union, Washington,
  • D.C., 1997.
  • Hanbaba, R.: Improved quality of services ionospheric telecommunication
  • systems planning and operation, Cost Action 251, Final
  • Report, Published by Space Research Centre, Warsaw, Poland,
  • 1999.
  • Hocke, K. and Schlegel, K.: A review of atmospheric gravity waves
  • and travelling ionospheric disturbances: 1982–1995, Ann. Geophys.,
  • 14, 917–940, 1996,
  • http://www.ann-geophys.net/14/917/1996/.
  • International Telecommunication Union (ITU): ITU-R reference
  • ionospheric characteristics and methods for basic MUF, operational
  • MUF and ray-paths predictions, Recommendation ITU-R
  • P. 1239, Geneva, 1997.
  • IPS-Radio and Space Services: ASAPS Introductory Booklet,
  • available for download at http://www.ips.gov.au/Products and
  • Services/1/1/2., undated, last accessed March 2006.
  • Jones, W. B. and Gallet, R. M.: Representation of diurnal and geographical
  • variation of ionospheric data by numerical methods,
  • Telecommun. J., 29, 129–149, 1962.
  • Joselyn, J. A.: Geomagnetic activity forecasting; the state of the art,
  • Rev. Geophys., 33, 383–401, 1995.
  • Kouris, S. S. and Fotiadis, D. N.: Ionospheric variability: a comparative
  • statistical study, Adv. Space Res., 29, 977–985, 2002.
  • Kozin, I. D., Kozin, V. I., and Fedulina, I. N.: On a choice of the
  • ionospheric disturbance indices, Geomagn. Aeron., 35(1), 111–
  • 112, 1995.
  • Mendillo, M.: A study of the relationship between geomagnetic
  • storms and ionospheric disturbances at mid-latitudes, Planet.
  • Space Sci., 21, 349–358, 1973.
  • Muhtarov, P. and Kutiev, I.: Autocorrelation method for temporal
  • interpolation and short-term prediction of ionospheric data, Radio
  • Sci., 34(2), 459–464, 1999.
  • Oyeyemi, E. O., Poole, A. W. V., and McKinnell, L. A.: On
  • the global short-term forecasting of the ionospheric critical frequency
  • foF2 up to 5 hours in advance using neural networks,
  • Radio Sci., 40(6), RS6012, doi:10.1029/2004RS003239, 2005.
  • Perrone, L., De Franceschi, G., and Gulyaeva, T. L.: The timeweighted
  • magnetic indices ap( ), PC( ), AE( ) and their correlation
  • to the southern high latitude ionosphere, Phys. Chem. Earth (C), 26(5), 331–334, 2001.
  • Pietrella, M., Bianchi. C., and Scotto, C.: Electronic density contours
  • and gravity waves, Il Nuovo Cimento, 20 C(4), 609–612,
  • 1997.
  • Pietrella, M. and Perrone, L.: Istantaneous Space Weighted Ionospheric
  • Regional Model for instantaneous mapping of the critical
  • frequency of the F2 layer in the European region, Radio Sci.,
  • 40(1), RS1005, doi:10.1029/2003RS003008, 2005.
  • Pr¨olss, G. W.: Ionospheric F region storms, in: Handbook of atmospheric
  • electrodynamics, 2, edited by: Volland, H., CRC Press,
  • Boca Raton, 195–248, 1995.
  • Pr¨olss, G.W.: Magnetic storm associated perturbations of the upper
  • atmosphere, in: Magnetic Storms, Geophysical Monograph 98,
  • edited by: Tsurutani, B. T., Gonzales, W. D., Kamide, Y., and
  • Arballo, J. K., American Geophysical Union ,Washington, D.C.,
  • 1997.
  • Richmond, A. D. and Matsushita, S.: Thermospheric response to a
  • magnetic substorm, J. Geophys. Res., 80, 2839–2850, 1975.
  • Rishbeth, H., Fuller-Rowell, T. J., and Rees, D.: Diffusive equilibrium
  • and vertical motion in the thermosphere during a severe
  • magnetic storm: a computational study, Planet. Space Sci., 35,
  • 1157–1165, 1987.
  • Roble, R. G., Richmond, A. D., Oliver, W. L., and Harper, R. M.:
  • Ionospheric effects of the gravity wave launched by the September
  • 18, 1974, Sudden Commencement, J. Geophys. Res., 83,
  • 999–1009, 1978.
  • Stewart, F. G.: ICEPAC-Technical Manual, available for download
  • at http://www.greg-hand.com/manuals/icepac tech manual.
  • pdf, undated.
  • Testud, J.: Gravity waves generated during magnetic substorm, J.
  • Atmos. Terr. Sci., 32, 1793–1805, 1970.
  • Titheridge, J. E.: Non periodic irregularities in the ionosphere, J.
  • Geophys. Res., 76, 6955–6960, 1971.
  • Thomson, A.W. P., Clark, T. D. G., and Kerridge, D. J.: Forecasting
  • ap in the short-term using time series analysis, in Proceedings of
  • the 1992 Solar-Terr. Predictions Workshop, 3, 269, 1993.
  • Thomson, A. W. P.: Neural networks and non-linear prediction of
  • geomagnetic activity, in: Proceedings of the 1993 International
  • Workshop on Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar Terrestrial
  • Physics, 133, 1993.
  • Wrenn, G. L.: Time-Weighted accumulations ap( ) and Kp( ), J.
  • Geophys. Res., 92, 10 125–10 129, 1987.
  • Wrenn, G. L., Rodger, A. S., and Rishbeth, H.: Geomagnetic storms
  • in Antarctic F region.. I. Diurnal and seasonal patterns in main
  • phase effects, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 49, 901–913, 1987.
  • Wrenn, G. L. and Rodger, A. S.: Geomagnetic modification of the
  • mid-latitude ionosphere: toward a strategy for the improved forecasting
  • of foF2, Radio Sci., 24(1), 99–111, 1989.
  • Zolesi, B. and Cander, Lj. R.: Advances in regional ionospheric
  • mapping over Europe, Ann. Geofis., 41(5–6), 827–842, 1998.
  • Zolesi, B., Belehaki, A., Tsagouri, I., and Cander, Lj. R.:
  • Real-time updating of the Simplified Ionospheric Regional
  • Model for operational applications, Radio Sci., 39(2), RS2011,
  • doi:10.1029/2003RS002936, 2004.
  • Zolesi, B., Fontana, G., Perrone, L., et al.: A new campaign for
  • oblique-incidence ionospheric sounding over Europe and its data
  • application, J. Atmos. Solar Terr. Phys., in press, 2007.

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

 

Valid XHTML 1.0! ICT Support, development & maintenance are provided by theAePIC team @CILEA.Powered onDSpace Software. Feedback