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BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/70 (2008)
Publisher
Springer
Pages (printed)
623-632
Issued date
2008
Last version
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/2789
Keywords
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET_EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET_EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
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