Modelling of the 2001 Lava Flow at Etna Volcano by a Cellular Automata Approach

Abstract

The 2D Cellular Automata model, MAGFLOW, simulates lava flows and an algorithm based on the Monte Carlo approach solves the anisotropic flow direction problem. The model was applied to reproduce a lava flow formed during the 2001 Etna eruption. This eruption provided the opportunity to verify the ability of MAGFLOW to simulate the path of lava flows. made possible due to the availability of the necessary data for both modeling and subsequent validation. MAGFLOW reproduced quite accurately the spread of flow. A good agreement was highlighted between the simulated and observed length on steep slopes, whereas the area covered by the lava flow tends to be overestimated. The major inconsistencies found in the comparison between simulated and observed lava flow due to neglecting the effects of ephemeral vent formation.