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Earthquake Disaster Scenario Prediction and Loss Modelling for Urban Areas
Author(s)
Spence, R.
UCAM Cambridge
So, E.
UCAM Cambridge
Carvalho, A.
LNEC Lisbona
Campos Costa, A.
LNEC Lisbona
Coelho, E.
LNEC Lisbona
Pitilakis, K.
AUTH Thessaloniki
Anastasiadis, A.
AUTH Thessaloniki
Kakderi, K.
AUTH Thessaloniki
Alexoudi, M.
AUTH Thessaloniki
Ansal, A.
KOERI Istanbul
Erdic, M.
KOERI Istanbul
Tonuk, G.
KOERI Istanbul
Demircioglu, M.
KOERI Istanbul
Sponsors
LessLoss - Risk Mitigation for Earthquakes and Landslides, SP10 "Earthquake Scenarios, Loss Modelling and Mitigation for Urban Areas" (coord. R.Spence). EC Project -Sixth Framework Programme. Priority 1.1.6.3 - Global Change and Ecosystems, Project No.:GOCE-CT-2003-505488
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
Status
Published
Peer review journal
Yes
Issued date
July 2007
Alternative Location
Series/Report No.
LESSLOSS report
2007/07
Abstract
The overall aim of Sub-Project 10 (Earthquake disaster scenario predictions and loss modelling for urban areas) has been to create a tool, based on state-of-the-art loss modelling software, to provide strong, quantified statements about the benefits of a range of possible mitigation actions, in order to support decision-making by urban authorities for seismic risk mitigation strategies. A further larger aim has been to contribute to a seismic risk mitigation policy for future implementation at European level. Among the European cities for which loss estimation studies have been carried out are Istanbul, Lisbon and Thessaloniki, and tools, using GIS mapping, have been developed by research teams in each of these cities; these were made available for further development to examine mitigation strategies within SP10. Related research studies – on ground motion estimation, on the assessment of human casualties, and on the evaluation of uncertainty have been carried out by other research teams across Europe which includes INGV, UCAM and USUR respectively. In all three of the cities, a common general approach to loss modelling has been adopted which includes representing the earthquake hazard as a set of alternative ground motion scenarios (typically those with an expected recurrence periods of 50 and 500 years), and applying the ground motion over a target area of known population and building stock. Losses have then been estimated for this target area in terms of levels of building damage and human casualties expected both in the existing state of the target area, and after certain selected potential mitigation actions have been carried out. This has been done in each case using building stock classifications and vulnerability data specific to the particular city concerned. In each case the scope of the proposed mitigation action has been described, and its expected benefit in terms of reduced losses and human casualties has been determined with some preliminary assessment of uncertainty.
Type
report
File(s)
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Name
Report7.pdf
Description
Deliverable report
Size
18.92 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
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