GIS-assisted modelling for debris flow hazard assessment based on the events of May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy: Part I. Maximum run-out

Abstract

Based on the debris flow events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy, this paper presents an approach to simulate debris flow maximum run-out. On the basis of the flow source areas and an average thickness of 1•2 m of the scarps, we estimated debris flow volumes of the order of 104 and 105 m3. Flow mobility ratios (ΔΗ/L) derived from the x, y, z coordinates of the lower-most limit of the source areas (i.e. apex of the alluvial fan) and the distal limit of the flows ranged between 0•27 and 0•09. We performed regression analyses that showed a good correlation between the estimated flow volumes and mobility ratios. This paper presents a methodology for predicting maximum run-out of future debris flow events, based on the developed empirical relationship. We implemented the equation that resulted from the calibration as a set of GIS macros written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and running within ArcGIS. We carried out sensitivity analyses and observed that hazard mapping with this methodology should attempt to delineate hazard zones with a minimum horizontal resolution of 0•4 km. The developed procedure enables the rapid delineation of debris flow maximum extent within reasonable levels of uncertainty, it incorporates sensitivities and it facilitates hazard assessments via graphic user interfaces and with modest computing resources.