4 Real-time Estimation of Earthquake Magnitude for Seismic Early Warning

Abstract

A prototype system for earthquake early warning and rapid shake map evaluation is being developed and tested in southern Italy based on a dense, dynamic seismic network (accelerometers + seismometers) under installation in the Apenninic belt region (Irpinia Seismic Network). It can be classified as a regional Earthquake Early Warning System consisting of a broad-based seismic sensor network covering a portion or the entire area which is threatened by the quake's strike. The real time magnitude estimate will take advantage from the high spatial density of the network in the source region and the broad dynamic range of installed instruments. Based on the offline analysis of high quality strong-motion data bases recorded in Italy, several methods are envisaged, using different observed quantities (peak amplitude, dominant frequency, square velocity integral, …) to be measured on seismograms, as a function of time, both on P and early-S wave signals. Results from the analysis of the Italian strong motion database point out the possibility of using low-pass filtered displacement and velocity peak amplitudes measured in time windows lasting less than 3-4 sec after the first P- or S-wave arrivals. These parameters show they are robustly correlated with moment magnitude. The correlation found of 3Hz low-pass filtered PGV and PGD with magnitude is discussed and interpreted in terms of plausible dynamic models of the earthquake rupture process during its initial stage.