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|Authors: ||Convertito, V.*|
|Title: ||Prediction of response spectra via real-time earthquake measurements|
|Title of journal: ||Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering|
|Issue Date: ||2007|
|Keywords: ||Earthquake early-warning|
Missed and false alarm
|Abstract: ||The development and implementation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS), both in regional or on-site configurations can
help to mitigate the losses due to the occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in densely populated and/or industrialized areas. The
capability of an EEWS to provide real-time estimates of source parameters (location and magnitude) can be used to take some
countermeasures during the earthquake occurrence and before the arriving of the most destructive waves at the site of interest. However,
some critical issues are peculiar of EEWS and need further investigation: (1) the uncertainties on earthquake magnitude and location
estimates based on the measurements of some observed quantities in the very early portion of the recorded signals; (2) the selection of the
most appropriate parameter to be used to predict the ground motion amplitude both in near-and far-source ranges; (3) the use of the
estimates provided by the EEWS for structural engineering and risk mitigation applications.
In the present study, the issues above are discussed using the Campania–Lucania region (Southern Apennines) in Italy, as test-site
area. In this region a prototype system for earthquake early warning, and more generally for seismic alert management, is under
development. The system is based on a dense, wide dynamic accelerometric network deployed in the area where the moderate-to-large
earthquake causative fault systems are located.
The uncertainty analysis is performed through a real-time probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by using two different approaches. The
first is the Bayesian approach that implicitly integrate both the time evolving estimate of earthquake parameters, the probability density
functions and the variability of ground motion propagation providing the most complete information. The second is a classical point
estimate approach which does not account for the probability density function of the magnitude and only uses the average of the
estimates performed at each seismic station.
Both the approaches are applied to two main towns located in the area of interest, Napoli and Avellino, for which a missed and false
alarm analysis is presented by means of a scenario earthquake: an M 7.0 seismic event located at the centre of the seismic network.
Concerning the ground motion prediction, attention is focused on the response spectra as the most appropriate function to
characterize the ground motion for earthquake engineering applications of EEWS.|
|Appears in Collections:||04.06.11. Seismic risk|
04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
Papers Published / Papers in press
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