Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/2789
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.authorall | Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Sandri, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Selva, J.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2007-11-12T09:02:07Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2007-11-12T09:02:07Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2007 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/2789 | en |
dc.description.abstract | The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.publisher.name | Springer | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Bulletin of Volcanology | en |
dc.subject | Eruption forecasting | en |
dc.subject | Long- and short-term volcanic hazard | en |
dc.subject | Bayesian inference | en |
dc.subject | Event tree | en |
dc.subject | Fuzzy sets | en |
dc.subject | MESIMEX | en |
dc.title | BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | on line first | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | partially_open | en |
dc.contributor.author | Marzocchi, W. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Sandri, L. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Selva, J. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-9114-1516 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-3254-2336 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-6263-6934 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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File | Description | Size | Format | Existing users please Login |
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fulltext.pdf | 395.42 kB | Adobe PDF | ||
text_press.pdf | 2.32 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open | |
esm.pdf | 1.69 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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