BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.