Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/2789
AuthorsMarzocchi, W.* 
Sandri, L.* 
Selva, J.* 
TitleBET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting
Issue Date2007
DOI10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/2789
KeywordsEruption forecasting
Long- and short-term volcanic hazard
Bayesian inference
Event tree
Fuzzy sets
MESIMEX
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 
AbstractThe main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
fulltext.pdf395.42 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
text_press.pdf2.32 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
esm.pdf1.69 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show full item record

Page view(s)

79
Last Week
0
Last month
checked on Jun 26, 2017

Download(s)

267
checked on Jun 26, 2017

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric