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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/2591

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Title: Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multi-Model-Ensemble Study
Authors: Collins, M.*
Botzet, M.*
Carril, A. F.*
Drange, H.*
Jouzeau, A.*
Latif, M.*
Masina, S.*
Otteraa, O. H.*
Pohlmann, H.*
Sorteberg, A.*
Sutton, R.*
Terray, L.*
Keywords: Decadal Climate
North Atlantic
Issue Date: 2006
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Title of journal: J. Clim.
Series/Report no.: 7 / 19 (2006)
Abstract: Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere–ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/2591
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3654.1
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press
03.01.03. Global climate models
03.03.03. Interannual-to-decadal ocean variability
03.02.05. Models and Forecasts

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