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Bayesian analysis of the local intensity attenuation
Language
English
Status
Published
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issued date
2006
Keywords
Abstract
We present a method that allows us to incorporate additional information from
the historical earthquake felt reports in the probability estimation of local intensity attenuation.
The approach is based on two ideas: a) standard intensity versus epicentral distance
relationships constitute an unnecessary lter between observations and estimates; and b) the
intensity decay process is a ected by many, scarcely known elements; hence intensity decay
should be treated as a random variable as is the macroseismic intensity. The observations
related to earthquakes with their epicenter outside the area concerned, but belonging to homogeneous
zones, are used as prior knowledge of the phenomenon, while the data points of
events inside the area are used to update the estimates through the posterior means of the
quantities involved.
the historical earthquake felt reports in the probability estimation of local intensity attenuation.
The approach is based on two ideas: a) standard intensity versus epicentral distance
relationships constitute an unnecessary lter between observations and estimates; and b) the
intensity decay process is a ected by many, scarcely known elements; hence intensity decay
should be treated as a random variable as is the macroseismic intensity. The observations
related to earthquakes with their epicenter outside the area concerned, but belonging to homogeneous
zones, are used as prior knowledge of the phenomenon, while the data points of
events inside the area are used to update the estimates through the posterior means of the
quantities involved.
References
Read, T.R.C. and Cressie, N.A.C. (1988) Goodness-of- t statistics for discrete multivariate data,
Springer-Verlag, New York.
Rotondi, R. and Zonno, G. (2004) Bayesian analysis of a probability distribution for local intensity
attenuation, Annals of Geophysics, 47, 5, 1521-1540.
Zonno, G., Meroni F., Rotondi R., Petrini V. (1995) Bayesian estimation of the local intensity probability
for seismic hazard assessment, Proceeding of the Fifth International Conference on Seismic
Zonation, Nice, October 17-19, 1995, 1723-1729.
Springer-Verlag, New York.
Rotondi, R. and Zonno, G. (2004) Bayesian analysis of a probability distribution for local intensity
attenuation, Annals of Geophysics, 47, 5, 1521-1540.
Zonno, G., Meroni F., Rotondi R., Petrini V. (1995) Bayesian estimation of the local intensity probability
for seismic hazard assessment, Proceeding of the Fifth International Conference on Seismic
Zonation, Nice, October 17-19, 1995, 1723-1729.
Type
article
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