Options
Ground motion predictions from empirical attenuation relationships versus recorded data: the case of the 1997-98 Umbria-Marche (Central Italy) strong motion data-set
Author(s)
Language
English
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
3 / 96 (2006)
Publisher
Seismological Society of America
Pages (printed)
984-1002
Issued date
2006
Keywords
Abstract
We evaluate the goodness of fit of attenuation relations commonly used
for the Italian national territory (Sabetta and Pugliese, 1996) by using the maximum
likelihood approaches of Spudich et al. (1999) and Scherbaum et al. (2004). According
to the classification scheme proposed by Scherbaum et al. (2004), the Sabetta
and Pugliese (1996) relationships show consistent discrepancies between the predicted
and the observed peak ground acceleration (PGA) at rock sites in the Umbria-
Marche region, central Italy; however, at soft sites the agreement between observations
and prediction is satisfactory. The bias of the residuals, computed with the
Sabetta and Pugliese (1996) models for PGA, peak ground velocity, (PGV) and pseudovelocity
response spectrum (PSV) (for Ml 4–6 and epicentral distances up to
100 km) is negative. This means that on the average, the predictions overestimate
the observations, but the overestimation decreases with increasing magnitude. Then,
we present regional predictive relations (UMA05) for maximum horizontal PGA,
PGV, and 5%-damped PSV, derived from the strong-motion data recorded in the
Umbria-Marche area and classified as to four site categories. The UMA05 attenuation
relationships for rock sites are
log10 (PGA) 2.487 0.534Ml 1.280 log10 (R2 3.942)0.5 0.268
log10 (PGV) 1.803 0.687Ml 1.150 log10 (R2 2.742)0.5 0.300
and
log10 (PGA) 2.500 0.544Ml 1.284 log10 Rh 0.292
log10 (PGV) 1.752 0.685Ml 1.167 log10 Rh 0.297,
where PGA is measured in fraction of g and PGV in centimeters per second, Ml is
the local magnitude in the range 4–6, R is the epicentral distance in the range 1–100
km, and Rh is the hypocentral distance in kilometers. We used the random effect
model (Brillinger and Priesler, 1985; Abrahamson and Youngs, 1992; Joyner and
Boore, 1993; Joyner and Boore, 1994) to estimate the component of variance related
to the earthquake-to-earthquake, station-to-station, and record-to-record variability,
and to quantify the benefit of introducing a site classification in the attenuation model
to reduce the variance. The introduction of the site classification in the attenuation
model allows a reduction of the station-to-station component of variability (from
0.19 to 0.14 for PGA, and from 0.21 to 0.18 for PGV). We also found that the recordto-
record component represents the largest contribution to the model uncertainty.
for the Italian national territory (Sabetta and Pugliese, 1996) by using the maximum
likelihood approaches of Spudich et al. (1999) and Scherbaum et al. (2004). According
to the classification scheme proposed by Scherbaum et al. (2004), the Sabetta
and Pugliese (1996) relationships show consistent discrepancies between the predicted
and the observed peak ground acceleration (PGA) at rock sites in the Umbria-
Marche region, central Italy; however, at soft sites the agreement between observations
and prediction is satisfactory. The bias of the residuals, computed with the
Sabetta and Pugliese (1996) models for PGA, peak ground velocity, (PGV) and pseudovelocity
response spectrum (PSV) (for Ml 4–6 and epicentral distances up to
100 km) is negative. This means that on the average, the predictions overestimate
the observations, but the overestimation decreases with increasing magnitude. Then,
we present regional predictive relations (UMA05) for maximum horizontal PGA,
PGV, and 5%-damped PSV, derived from the strong-motion data recorded in the
Umbria-Marche area and classified as to four site categories. The UMA05 attenuation
relationships for rock sites are
log10 (PGA) 2.487 0.534Ml 1.280 log10 (R2 3.942)0.5 0.268
log10 (PGV) 1.803 0.687Ml 1.150 log10 (R2 2.742)0.5 0.300
and
log10 (PGA) 2.500 0.544Ml 1.284 log10 Rh 0.292
log10 (PGV) 1.752 0.685Ml 1.167 log10 Rh 0.297,
where PGA is measured in fraction of g and PGV in centimeters per second, Ml is
the local magnitude in the range 4–6, R is the epicentral distance in the range 1–100
km, and Rh is the hypocentral distance in kilometers. We used the random effect
model (Brillinger and Priesler, 1985; Abrahamson and Youngs, 1992; Joyner and
Boore, 1993; Joyner and Boore, 1994) to estimate the component of variance related
to the earthquake-to-earthquake, station-to-station, and record-to-record variability,
and to quantify the benefit of introducing a site classification in the attenuation model
to reduce the variance. The introduction of the site classification in the attenuation
model allows a reduction of the station-to-station component of variability (from
0.19 to 0.14 for PGA, and from 0.21 to 0.18 for PGV). We also found that the recordto-
record component represents the largest contribution to the model uncertainty.
References
Abrahamson, N. A., and R. R. Youngs (1992). A stable algorithm for regression
analyses using the random effects model, Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am. 82, 505–510.
Ambraseys, N. N., J. Douglas, S. K. Sarma, and P. M. Smit (2005). Equations
for estimation of strong ground motions from shallow crustal
earthquakes using data from Europe and Middle East: horizontal peak
ground acceleration and spectral acceleration, Bull. Earthquake Eng.
3, 1–53.
Bommer, J. J., and F. Scherbaum (2005). Capturing and limiting groundmotion
uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment, in Future Directions
of Strong Motion Instrumentation, P. Gulkan and J. G. Anderson (Editors),
Kluwer Academic, 25–40.
Bommer, J. J., J. Douglas, and F. O. Strasser (2003). Style-of-faulting in
ground motion prediction equations, Bull. Earthquake Eng. 1, 171–
203.
Bommer, J. J., F. Scherbaum, F. Cotton, H. Bungun, and F. Sabetta (2004).
Discussion on “Uncertainty of strong-motion and seismic hazard” by
R. Sigbjo¨rnsson and N. N. Ambraseys, Bull. Earthquake Eng. 2, 261–
267.
Boore, D. M. (2003). Prediction of ground motion using the stochastic
approach method, Pure Appl. Geophys. 160, 635–676.
Brillinger, D. R., and H. K. Preisler (1985). Further analysis of the Joyner-
Boore attenuation data. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 75, no. 2, 611–614.
Brune, D. M. (1970). Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves
from earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 75, 4997–5009.
Campbell, K. W. (2002). Strong-motion attenuation relations, in International
Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, Vol.
81B, International Association of Seismology & Physics of the
Earth’s Interior, Committee on Education, 1003–1012.
Capuano, P., A. Zollo, A. Emolo, S. Marcucci, and G. Milana (2000).
Rupture mechanism and source parameters of Umbria-Marche mainshocks
from strong motion data, J. Seism. 4, 463–478.
Castro, R. R., F. Pacor, D. Bindi, G. Franceschina, and L. Luzi (2004). Site
response of strong motion stations in the Umbria region, central Italy,
Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 94, 576–590.
Cattaneo, M., P. Augliera, G. De Luca, A. Gorini, A. Govoni, S. Marcucci,
A. Michelini, G. Monachesi, D. Spallarossa, and L. Trojani, and
XGUMS (2000). The Umbria-Marche (Italy) earthquake sequence:
analysis of the data recorede by the local and temporary networks, J.
Seism. 4, 401–414.
Chen, Y-H., and C.-C. P. Tsai (2002). A new method for estimation of the
attenuation relationship with variance component, Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am. 92, 1984–1991.
Chiaraluce, L., A. Amato, M. Cocco, C. Chiarabba, G. Selvaggi, M. Di
Bona, D. Piccinini, A. Deschamps, L. Margheriti, F. Courboulex, and
M. Ripepe (2004). Complex normal faulting in the Apennines thrustand-
fold belt: the 1997 seismic sequence in central Italy, Bull. Seism.
Soc. Am. 94, 99–116.
Comite´ Europe´en de Normalisation (CEN) (2002). EN 1998, Eurocode 8,
Design Provisions for the earthquake resistance of structures: seismic
Actions and general requirements of structures, CEN/TC 250, Draft,
May 2002.
Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am. 58, 1583–1606.
Deschamps, A., G. Iannaccone, and R. Scarpa (1984). The Umbrian earthquake
(Italy) of 19 September 1979, Ann. Geophys. 2, 29–36.
Douglas, J. (2003). Earthquake ground motion estimation using strongmotion
records: a review of equations for the estimation of peak
ground acceleration and response spectral ordinates. Earth-Sci. Rev.
61, 43–104.
Douglas, J., and P. M. Smit (2001). How accurate can strong ground motion
attenuation relations be? Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 91, 1917–1923.
Frisenda, M., M. Massa, D. Spallarossa, G. Ferretti, and C. Eva (2005).
Attenuation relationship for low magnitude earthquakes using standard
seismometric records. J. Earthquake Eng. 9, 23–40.
Haessler, H., R. Gaulon, L. River, R. Console, M. Frogneaux, G. Gasparini,
L. Martel, G. Patau, M. Siciliano, and A. Cisternas (1988). The Perugia
(Italy) earthquake of 29 April 1984: a microearthquake survey.
Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 78, 1948–1964.
Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica a Vulcanologia (INGV) (2004). INGV
Seismic Bulletin, www.ingv.it/ roma/reti/rms/bolletino/. (last received
March 2006).
Joyner, W. B., and D. M. Boore (1993). Methods for regression analysis
of strong-motion data. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 83, 469–487.
Joyner, W. B., and D. M. Boore (1994). Errata: methods for regression
analysis of strong-motion data, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 84, 955–956.
Lay, T., and T. C. Wallace (1995). Modern Global Seismology, Academic
Press, New York, pp. 521.
Luzi, L., D. Bindi, G. Franceschina, F. Pacor, and R. R. Castro (2005).
Geotechnical Site Characterisation in the Umbria Marche Area and
Evaluation of Earthquake Site-Response. Pure Appl. Geoph. 162,
2133–2161.
Morelli, A., G. Ekstro¨m, and M. Olivieri (2000). Source properties of the
1997–98 central Italy earthquake from inversion of long-period and
broadband seismograms, J. Seism. 4, 365–375.
Paige, C. C., and M. A. Saunders (1982). An algorithm for sparse linear
equations and sparse least squares, ACM Trans. Math. Software 8,
43–71.
Rovelli, A., L. Scognamiglio, F. Marra, and A. Caserta (2001). Edgediffracted
1-sec surface waves observed in a small-size intramountain
basin (Colfiorito, central Italy), Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 91, 1851–1866.
Sabetta, F., and A. Pugliese (1987). Attenuation of peak horizontal acceleration
and velocity from Italian strong-motion records, Bull. Seism.
Soc. Am. 77, 1491–1511.
Sabetta, F., and A. Pugliese (1996). Estimation of response spectra and
simulation of nonstationary earthquake ground motion, Bull. Seism.
Soc. Am. 86, 337–352.
Scherbaum, F., F. Cotton, and P. Smit (2004). On the use of response
spectral-reference data for the selection and ranking of ground-motion
models for seismic-hazard analysis in regions of moderate seismicity:
the case of rock motion, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 94, 2164–2185.
Searle, S. R. (1971). Linear Models, Wiley, New York.
Sigbjo¨rnsson, R., and N. N. Ambraseys (2003). Uncertainty of strongmotion
and seismic hazard, Bull. Earthquake Eng. 1, 321–347.
Spudich, P., W. B. Joyner, A. G. Lindh, D. M. Boore, B. M. Margaris, and
J. B. Fletcher, (1999). SEA99: a revised ground motion prediction
relation for use in extensional tectonic regimes, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.
89, 1156–1170.
Servizio Sismico Nazionale (SSN) Monitoring System Group (2002). The
Strong Motion Records of the Umbria-Marche Sequence (September
1997–June 1998), CD-ROM.
analyses using the random effects model, Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am. 82, 505–510.
Ambraseys, N. N., J. Douglas, S. K. Sarma, and P. M. Smit (2005). Equations
for estimation of strong ground motions from shallow crustal
earthquakes using data from Europe and Middle East: horizontal peak
ground acceleration and spectral acceleration, Bull. Earthquake Eng.
3, 1–53.
Bommer, J. J., and F. Scherbaum (2005). Capturing and limiting groundmotion
uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment, in Future Directions
of Strong Motion Instrumentation, P. Gulkan and J. G. Anderson (Editors),
Kluwer Academic, 25–40.
Bommer, J. J., J. Douglas, and F. O. Strasser (2003). Style-of-faulting in
ground motion prediction equations, Bull. Earthquake Eng. 1, 171–
203.
Bommer, J. J., F. Scherbaum, F. Cotton, H. Bungun, and F. Sabetta (2004).
Discussion on “Uncertainty of strong-motion and seismic hazard” by
R. Sigbjo¨rnsson and N. N. Ambraseys, Bull. Earthquake Eng. 2, 261–
267.
Boore, D. M. (2003). Prediction of ground motion using the stochastic
approach method, Pure Appl. Geophys. 160, 635–676.
Brillinger, D. R., and H. K. Preisler (1985). Further analysis of the Joyner-
Boore attenuation data. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 75, no. 2, 611–614.
Brune, D. M. (1970). Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves
from earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 75, 4997–5009.
Campbell, K. W. (2002). Strong-motion attenuation relations, in International
Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, Vol.
81B, International Association of Seismology & Physics of the
Earth’s Interior, Committee on Education, 1003–1012.
Capuano, P., A. Zollo, A. Emolo, S. Marcucci, and G. Milana (2000).
Rupture mechanism and source parameters of Umbria-Marche mainshocks
from strong motion data, J. Seism. 4, 463–478.
Castro, R. R., F. Pacor, D. Bindi, G. Franceschina, and L. Luzi (2004). Site
response of strong motion stations in the Umbria region, central Italy,
Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 94, 576–590.
Cattaneo, M., P. Augliera, G. De Luca, A. Gorini, A. Govoni, S. Marcucci,
A. Michelini, G. Monachesi, D. Spallarossa, and L. Trojani, and
XGUMS (2000). The Umbria-Marche (Italy) earthquake sequence:
analysis of the data recorede by the local and temporary networks, J.
Seism. 4, 401–414.
Chen, Y-H., and C.-C. P. Tsai (2002). A new method for estimation of the
attenuation relationship with variance component, Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am. 92, 1984–1991.
Chiaraluce, L., A. Amato, M. Cocco, C. Chiarabba, G. Selvaggi, M. Di
Bona, D. Piccinini, A. Deschamps, L. Margheriti, F. Courboulex, and
M. Ripepe (2004). Complex normal faulting in the Apennines thrustand-
fold belt: the 1997 seismic sequence in central Italy, Bull. Seism.
Soc. Am. 94, 99–116.
Comite´ Europe´en de Normalisation (CEN) (2002). EN 1998, Eurocode 8,
Design Provisions for the earthquake resistance of structures: seismic
Actions and general requirements of structures, CEN/TC 250, Draft,
May 2002.
Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am. 58, 1583–1606.
Deschamps, A., G. Iannaccone, and R. Scarpa (1984). The Umbrian earthquake
(Italy) of 19 September 1979, Ann. Geophys. 2, 29–36.
Douglas, J. (2003). Earthquake ground motion estimation using strongmotion
records: a review of equations for the estimation of peak
ground acceleration and response spectral ordinates. Earth-Sci. Rev.
61, 43–104.
Douglas, J., and P. M. Smit (2001). How accurate can strong ground motion
attenuation relations be? Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 91, 1917–1923.
Frisenda, M., M. Massa, D. Spallarossa, G. Ferretti, and C. Eva (2005).
Attenuation relationship for low magnitude earthquakes using standard
seismometric records. J. Earthquake Eng. 9, 23–40.
Haessler, H., R. Gaulon, L. River, R. Console, M. Frogneaux, G. Gasparini,
L. Martel, G. Patau, M. Siciliano, and A. Cisternas (1988). The Perugia
(Italy) earthquake of 29 April 1984: a microearthquake survey.
Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 78, 1948–1964.
Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica a Vulcanologia (INGV) (2004). INGV
Seismic Bulletin, www.ingv.it/ roma/reti/rms/bolletino/. (last received
March 2006).
Joyner, W. B., and D. M. Boore (1993). Methods for regression analysis
of strong-motion data. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 83, 469–487.
Joyner, W. B., and D. M. Boore (1994). Errata: methods for regression
analysis of strong-motion data, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 84, 955–956.
Lay, T., and T. C. Wallace (1995). Modern Global Seismology, Academic
Press, New York, pp. 521.
Luzi, L., D. Bindi, G. Franceschina, F. Pacor, and R. R. Castro (2005).
Geotechnical Site Characterisation in the Umbria Marche Area and
Evaluation of Earthquake Site-Response. Pure Appl. Geoph. 162,
2133–2161.
Morelli, A., G. Ekstro¨m, and M. Olivieri (2000). Source properties of the
1997–98 central Italy earthquake from inversion of long-period and
broadband seismograms, J. Seism. 4, 365–375.
Paige, C. C., and M. A. Saunders (1982). An algorithm for sparse linear
equations and sparse least squares, ACM Trans. Math. Software 8,
43–71.
Rovelli, A., L. Scognamiglio, F. Marra, and A. Caserta (2001). Edgediffracted
1-sec surface waves observed in a small-size intramountain
basin (Colfiorito, central Italy), Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 91, 1851–1866.
Sabetta, F., and A. Pugliese (1987). Attenuation of peak horizontal acceleration
and velocity from Italian strong-motion records, Bull. Seism.
Soc. Am. 77, 1491–1511.
Sabetta, F., and A. Pugliese (1996). Estimation of response spectra and
simulation of nonstationary earthquake ground motion, Bull. Seism.
Soc. Am. 86, 337–352.
Scherbaum, F., F. Cotton, and P. Smit (2004). On the use of response
spectral-reference data for the selection and ranking of ground-motion
models for seismic-hazard analysis in regions of moderate seismicity:
the case of rock motion, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 94, 2164–2185.
Searle, S. R. (1971). Linear Models, Wiley, New York.
Sigbjo¨rnsson, R., and N. N. Ambraseys (2003). Uncertainty of strongmotion
and seismic hazard, Bull. Earthquake Eng. 1, 321–347.
Spudich, P., W. B. Joyner, A. G. Lindh, D. M. Boore, B. M. Margaris, and
J. B. Fletcher, (1999). SEA99: a revised ground motion prediction
relation for use in extensional tectonic regimes, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.
89, 1156–1170.
Servizio Sismico Nazionale (SSN) Monitoring System Group (2002). The
Strong Motion Records of the Umbria-Marche Sequence (September
1997–June 1998), CD-ROM.
Type
article
File(s)
No Thumbnail Available
Name
747.pdf
Size
528.92 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
d1e7da76613bf73e5742a2886762c173