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Statistical analysis of intermittent volcanic tremor associated with the September 1989 summit explosive eruptions at Mount Etna, Sicily
Language
English
Status
Published
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Publisher
Elsevier
Issued date
February 2003
Abstract
The pattern of volcanic tremor accompanyingthe 1989 September eruption at the south-east summit crater of
Mount Etna is studied. In specific, sixteen episodes of lava fountaining, which occurred in the first phase of the
eruption, are analysed. Their periodic behaviour, also evidenced by autocorrelation, allows us to define the related
tremor amplitude increases as intermittent volcanic tremor episodes. Focusingon the regular intermittent behaviour
found for both lava fountains and intermittent volcanic tremors, we tried an a posteriori forecast using simple
statistical methods based on linear regression and the Student’ t-test. We performed the retrospective statistical
forecast, and found that several eruptions would have been successfully forecast. In order to focus on the source
mechanism of tremor linked to lava fountains, we investigated the relationship between volcanic and seismic
parameters. A mechanism based on a shallow magma batch ‘regularly’ refilled from depth is suggested.
Mount Etna is studied. In specific, sixteen episodes of lava fountaining, which occurred in the first phase of the
eruption, are analysed. Their periodic behaviour, also evidenced by autocorrelation, allows us to define the related
tremor amplitude increases as intermittent volcanic tremor episodes. Focusingon the regular intermittent behaviour
found for both lava fountains and intermittent volcanic tremors, we tried an a posteriori forecast using simple
statistical methods based on linear regression and the Student’ t-test. We performed the retrospective statistical
forecast, and found that several eruptions would have been successfully forecast. In order to focus on the source
mechanism of tremor linked to lava fountains, we investigated the relationship between volcanic and seismic
parameters. A mechanism based on a shallow magma batch ‘regularly’ refilled from depth is suggested.
Type
article
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