Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1419
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.authorall | Peçi, V.; Seismological Institute, Tirana, Albania | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Maeda, K.; Seismology and Volcanology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Matsumura, K.; Seismology and Volcanology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Irikura, K.; Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto, Japan | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2006-07-26T12:53:13Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2006-07-26T12:53:13Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 1999-10 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1419 | en |
dc.description.abstract | We investigate some characteristics of foreshock activity of moderate and large earthquakes which occurred in the present century in Albania and the surrounding area. Using a prediction algorithm, based on possible foreshocks, we obtained a probabilistic relation between possible foreshocks and mainshocks. From documentary and instrumental data for the period 1901-1994 for the area between 39.0°- 43.0°N and 18.5°-21.5°E we evaluated the probability of the occurrence of mainshocks immediately after their possible foreshocks. The result shows that the probability that mainshocks with magnitude M ³ 6.0 are preceded by a foreshock with magnitude M ³ 4.4, distance £ about 50 km and time £ 10 days is 38% (6/16). The probability that one earthquake with M ³ 4.4 will be followed by a larger earthquake with M ³ 6.0 within about 50 km and 10 days is 1.3% (6/468), but the probability increases to 33% (1/3) if 7 earthquakes with M ³ 4.4 occur within about 50 km and 10 days. From instrumental data for the period 1971-1994, the probability that mainshocks with M ³ 5.0 are preceded by a foreshock with magnitude M ³ 4.0 is 33% (5/15). The probability that one earthquake with M ³ 4.0 will be followed by a larger earthquake with M ³ 5.0 within about 50 km and 10 days is 1.9% (5/262), but the probability increase to 5.6% (1/18) if 3 earthquakes with M ³ 4.0 occur within about 50 km and 10 days. We also found a regional variation of foreshock activity with activity decreasing from the Vlora-Elbasani-Dibra transversal seismic belt to the Ionian-Adriatic seismic zone to the interior part of Albania seismic zone. | en |
dc.format.extent | 3146826 bytes | en |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 5/42 (1999) | en |
dc.subject | Probability estimation of foreshock activity | en |
dc.title | Foreshock activity and its probabilistic relation to earthquake occurrence in Albania and the surrounding area | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | open | en |
dc.contributor.author | Peçi, V. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Maeda, K. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Matsumura, K. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Irikura, K. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Seismological Institute, Tirana, Albania | en |
dc.contributor.department | Seismology and Volcanology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan | en |
dc.contributor.department | Seismology and Volcanology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan | en |
dc.contributor.department | Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto, Japan | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Seismological Institute, Tirana, Albania | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Seismology and Volcanology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Seismology and Volcanology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
Appears in Collections: | Annals of Geophysics |
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05 peci.pdf | 3.07 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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