Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1320
AuthorsEvison, F.* 
Rhoades, D.* 
TitleThe precursory earthquake swarm in Greece
Issue DateOct-2000
Series/Report no.43/5
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/1320
Keywordsprecursors swarm
seismogenesis
earthquake prediction
Hellenic arc
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics 
05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data 
AbstractThe Hellenic subduction region displays the same precursory swarm phenomenon as has been found in comparable regions of New Zealand and Japan. In the earthquake catalogue of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 10 past sequences of precursory swarms and related major mainshock events have been identified. These correlate, in respect of location, magnitude and time, with the 9 sequences previously identified in New Zealand, and 9 in Japan, bringing the total of sequences to 28, and the totals of related events (allowing for clustering) to 56 precursory swarms and 42 mainshock events. The results add strength to the hypothesis that swarms are long-range predictors of mainshock events. A close similarity between the swarm and aftershock magnitudes in a given sequence is also confirmed in Greece, supporting the proposal that swarms are an integral part of the seismogenic process in subduction regions. Further, the modelling of swarms as part of an overall increase in seismicity, the onset of which marks the onset of seismogenesis, is well illustrated from past sequences in Greece. Formal tests are being carried out in Greece, in parallel with New Zealand and Japan, to ascertain the performance of the hypothesis as a basis for long-range synoptic forecasting.
Appears in Collections:Annals of Geophysics

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