Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/11597
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.date.accessioned | 2018-03-30T09:26:56Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2018-03-30T09:26:56Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2015 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/11597 | en |
dc.description.abstract | Campi Flegrei (CF) is an example of an active caldera containing densely populated settlements at very high risk of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). We present here an innovative method for assessing background spatial PDC hazard in a caldera setting with probabilistic invasion maps conditional on the occurrence of an explosive event. The method encompasses the probabilistic assessment of potential vent opening positions, derived in the companion paper, combined with inferences about the spatial density distribution of PDC invasion areas from a simplified flow model, informed by reconstruction of deposits from eruptions in the last 15 ka. The flow model describes the PDC kinematics and accounts for main effects of topography on flow propagation. Structured expert elicitation is used to incorporate certain sources of epistemic uncertainty, and a Monte Carlo approach is adopted to produce a set of probabilistic hazard maps for the whole CF area. Our findings show that, in case of eruption, almost the entire caldera is exposed to invasion with a mean probability of at least 5%, with peaks greater than 50% in some central areas. Some areas outside the caldera are also exposed to this danger, with mean probabilities of invasion of the order of 5–10%. Our analysis suggests that these probability estimates have location-specific uncertainties which can be substantial. The results prove to be robust with respect to alternative elicitation models and allow the influence on hazard mapping of different sources of uncertainty, and of theoretical and numerical assumptions, to be quantified. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /120 (2015) | en |
dc.subject | Probabilistic invasion maps | en |
dc.subject | volcanic hazard | en |
dc.subject | Campi Flegrei | en |
dc.subject | uncertainty assessment | en |
dc.title | Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 2. Pyroclastic density current invasion maps | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 2330-2349 | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/2014JB011776 | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.contributor.author | Neri, Augusto | en |
dc.contributor.author | Bevilacqua, A. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso | en |
dc.contributor.author | Isaia, Roberto | en |
dc.contributor.author | Aspinall, W. P. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Bisson, Marina | en |
dc.contributor.author | Flandoli, F. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Baxter, P. J. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Bertagnini, Antonella | en |
dc.contributor.author | Iannuzzi, Enrico | en |
dc.contributor.author | Orsucci, S. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Pistolesi, M. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Rosi, Mauro | en |
dc.contributor.author | Vitale, S. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Aspinall & Associates, Beaconsfield, Buckinghamshire, UK | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Università Federico II di Napoli | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-3536-3624 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-0724-2593 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-6663-5311 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-7277-2358 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-6014-6042 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-7104-9210 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-4075-2242 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-5096-3708 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Nerietal_JGR2015.pdf | 4.45 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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