Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/11265| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.date.accessioned | 2018-03-16T13:27:05Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2018-03-16T13:27:05Z | en |
| dc.date.issued | 2016-03 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/11265 | en |
| dc.description | This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal Internationa ©: 2016 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. | en |
| dc.description.abstract | We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments. | en |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Italian Flagship Project RITMARE, EC FP7 ASTARTE (Grant agreement 603839) and STREST(Grant agreement 603389) projects, Italian FIRB-‘Futuro in Ricerca’ project ‘ByMuR’ (Ref. RBFR0880SR), INGV-DPC Agreement, Annex B2 | en |
| dc.language.iso | English | en |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Geophysical Journal International | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | /205 (2016) | en |
| dc.subject | Probabilistic forecasting | en |
| dc.subject | Tsunamis | en |
| dc.subject | Earthquake interaction | en |
| dc.subject | Europe | en |
| dc.title | Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) | en |
| dc.type | article | en |
| dc.description.status | Published | en |
| dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
| dc.description.pagenumber | 1780–1803 | en |
| dc.identifier.URL | https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/205/3/1780/656379 | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04.07. Tectonophysics | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 05.06. Methods | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 05.08. Risk | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 05.01. Computational geophysics | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04.06. Seismology | en |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1093/gji/ggw107 | en |
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| dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto | en |
| dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Selva, Jacopo | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Tonini, Roberto | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Molinari, Irene | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Tiberti, Mara Monica | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Romano, Fabrizio | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Grezio, Anita | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Melini, Daniele | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Piatanesi, Alessio | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Basili, Roberto | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Lorito, Stefano | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| item.openairetype | article | - |
| item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
| item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
| item.grantfulltext | open | - |
| item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
| item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-6263-6934 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-7617-7206 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-8314-1444 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-2504-853X | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-2725-3596 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-6848-7589 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-5383-2375 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-2863-3662 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-1213-0828 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-1458-2131 | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 05. General | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 05. General | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 05. General | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press | |
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| 22_Selva_etal2016_GJI.pdf | Main article | 13.31 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
| 22_Selva_et_al_AppendixA_figCorr.pdf | Appendix | 4.03 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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