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Uncertainty analysis for seismic hazard in Northern and Central Italy
Author(s)
Issued date
December 2005
Issue/vol(year)
6/48 (2005)
Language
English
Abstract
In this study we examine uncertainty and parametric sensitivity of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and 1-Hz
Spectral Acceleration (1-Hz SA) in probabilistic seismic hazard maps (10% probability of exceedance in 50
years) of Northern and Central Italy. The uncertainty in hazard is estimated using a Monte Carlo approach to
randomly sample a logic tree that has three input-variables branch points representing alternative values for bvalue,
maximum magnitude (Mmax) and attenuation relationships. Uncertainty is expressed in terms of 95% confidence
band and Coefficient Of Variation (COV). The overall variability of ground motions and their sensitivity
to each parameter of the logic tree are investigated. The largest values of the overall 95% confidence band
are around 0.15 g for PGA in the Friuli and Northern Apennines regions and around 0.35 g for 1-Hz SA in the
Central Apennines. The sensitivity analysis shows that the largest contributor to seismic hazard variability is uncertainty
in the choice of ground-motion attenuation relationships, especially in the Friuli Region (∼0.10 g) for
PGA and in the Friuli and Central Apennines regions (∼0.15 g) for 1-Hz SA. This is followed by the variability
of the b-value: its main contribution is evident in the Friuli and Central Apennines regions for both 1-Hz SA
(∼0.15 g) and PGA (∼0.10 g). We observe that the contribution of Mmax to seismic hazard variability is negligible,
at least for 10% exceedance in 50-years hazard. The overall COV map for PGA shows that the uncertainty
in the hazard is larger in the Friuli and Northern Apennine regions, around 20-30%, than the Central Apennines
and Northwestern Italy, around 10-20%. The overall uncertainty is larger for the 1-Hz SA map and reaches 50-
60% in the Central Apennines and Western Alps.
Spectral Acceleration (1-Hz SA) in probabilistic seismic hazard maps (10% probability of exceedance in 50
years) of Northern and Central Italy. The uncertainty in hazard is estimated using a Monte Carlo approach to
randomly sample a logic tree that has three input-variables branch points representing alternative values for bvalue,
maximum magnitude (Mmax) and attenuation relationships. Uncertainty is expressed in terms of 95% confidence
band and Coefficient Of Variation (COV). The overall variability of ground motions and their sensitivity
to each parameter of the logic tree are investigated. The largest values of the overall 95% confidence band
are around 0.15 g for PGA in the Friuli and Northern Apennines regions and around 0.35 g for 1-Hz SA in the
Central Apennines. The sensitivity analysis shows that the largest contributor to seismic hazard variability is uncertainty
in the choice of ground-motion attenuation relationships, especially in the Friuli Region (∼0.10 g) for
PGA and in the Friuli and Central Apennines regions (∼0.15 g) for 1-Hz SA. This is followed by the variability
of the b-value: its main contribution is evident in the Friuli and Central Apennines regions for both 1-Hz SA
(∼0.15 g) and PGA (∼0.10 g). We observe that the contribution of Mmax to seismic hazard variability is negligible,
at least for 10% exceedance in 50-years hazard. The overall COV map for PGA shows that the uncertainty
in the hazard is larger in the Friuli and Northern Apennine regions, around 20-30%, than the Central Apennines
and Northwestern Italy, around 10-20%. The overall uncertainty is larger for the 1-Hz SA map and reaches 50-
60% in the Central Apennines and Western Alps.
References
AKINCI, A., C. MUELLER, L. MALAGNINI and A.M. LOMBARDI
(2004): A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment
for the Alps and Apennines (Italy) using historical seismicity
and new predictive ground-motion relationships,
Boll. Geofis. Teor. Appl., 45 (4), 285-304.
ALBARELLO, D., V. BOSI, F. BRAMERINI, A. LUCANTONI, G.
NASO, L. PERUZZA, F. REBEZ, F. SABETTA and D. SLEJKO
(2000): Pericolosità sismica del territorio nazionale:
carte di consenso GNDT e SSN, in Le Ricerche
de GNDT nel Campo della Pericolosità Sismica (1996-
1999), a cura di F. GALADINI, C. MELETTI and A. REBEZ,
265-273.
AMBRASEYS, N.N., K.A. SIMPSON and J.J. BOMMER (1996): Prediction of horizontal response spectra in Europe,
Earth Eng. Struct. Dyn., 25, 371-400.
BENDER, B. (1983): Maximum likelihood estimation of bvalues
for magnitude grouped data, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am., 73 (3), 831-851.
BENDER, B.K. and D.M. PERKINS (1993): Treatment of parameter
uncertainty and variability for a single seismic
hazard map, Earthquake Spectra, 9, 165-195.
BUILDING SEISMIC SAFETY COUNCIL (1997): NEHRP Recommended
Provision for Seismic Regulations for New
Buildings and Other Structures (Washington, D.C.).
CAMASSI, R., P. ALBINI, V. CASTELLI, C. MIRTO, D. MOLIN
and M. STUCCHI (2002): Valutazioni di completezza dei
dati di intensità: alcuni risultati di un approccio di tipo
storico, in XXXI Convegno Nazionale del Gruppo
Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, 19-21 November
2002, Roma (Italy), Riassunti, 122-124.
CONSOLE, R. and M. MURRU (2001): A simple and testable
model for earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 106
(B5), 8699-8711.
CRAMER, C.H. (2001): A seismic hazard uncertainty analysis
for the New Madrid seismic zone, Eng. Geol., 62,
251-266.
CRAMER, C.H., M.D. PETERSEN and M.S. REICHLE (1996): A
Monte Carlo approach in estimating uncertainty for a
seismic hazard assessment of Los Angeles, Ventura and
Orange Counties, California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,
86 (6), 1681-1691.
CRAMER, C.H., R.L. WHEELER and C.S. MUELLER (2002):
Uncertainty analysis for seismic hazard in the Southern
Illinois Basin, Seismol. Res. Lett., 73 (5), 792-805.
FRANKEL, A. (1995): Mapping seismic hazard in the Central
and Eastern United States, Seismol. Res. Lett., 66 (4),
8-21.
GRUPPO DI LAVORO CPTI (1999): Catalogo Parametrico dei
Terremoti Italiani (ING, GNDT, SGA, SSN), (Ed.
Compositori, Bologna), pp. 92.
GUTENBERG, B. and C.F. RICHTER (1949): Seismicity of the
Earth and Associated Phenomena (Princeton University
Press, Princeton).
MALAGNINI, L., R.B. HERRMANN and M. DI BONA (2000):
Ground-motion scaling in the Apennines (Italy), Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am., 90, 1062-1081.
MALAGNINI, L., A. AKINCI, R.B. HERRMANN, N.A. PINO and
L. SCOGNAMIGLIO (2002): Characteristic of the groundmotion
in Northeastern Italy, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,
92 (6), 2186-2204.
MCGUIRE, R.K. (1977): Effects of uncertainty in seismicity
on estimates of seismic hazard for the east coast of the
United States, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 67, 827-848.
MCGUIRE, R.K and K.M. SHEDLOCK (1981): Statistical Uncertainty
in seismic hazard evaluations in the United
States, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 71, 1287-1308.
MELETTI, C., E. PATACCA and P. SCANDONE (2000): Construction
of a seismotectonics model: the case of Italy,
Pure Appl. Geophys., 157, 11-35.
MONTONE, P., S.PONDRELLI, A. AMATO and S. PIERDOMINICI
(2003): An improved stress map of Italy and Central
Mediterranean, in EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly
2003, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 5, 10362.
MORASCA, P., L. MALAGNINI, A. AKINCI, D. SPALLAROSSA
and R. HERRMANN (2004): Ground-Motion Scaling in
the Western Alps, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (submitted).
PETERSEN, M.D., C.H. CRAMER, W.A. BRYANT, M.S. REICHLE
and T.R. TOPPOZADA (1996): Preliminary seismic
hazard assessment for Los Angeles, Ventura and Orange
Counties, California, effected by the January 17
1994 Northridge earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,
86, S247-S261.
REITER, L. (1990): Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and
Insights (Columbia University, New York), pp. 253.
ROMEO, A., A. PACIELLO and D. RINALDIS (2000): Seismic
hazard maps of Italy including site effects, Soil Dyn.
Earthquake Eng., 20, 85-92.
SABETTA, F. and A. PUGLIESE (1996): Estimation of response
spectra and simulation of nonstationary earthquake
ground-motions, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 86 (2),
337-352.
SLEIKO, D., L. PERUZZA and A. REBEZ (1998): Seismic hazard
maps of Italy, Ann. Geofis., 41 (2), 183-214.
WONG, I.G. and S.S. OLIG (1998): Seismic hazards in the
basin and range province: perspectives from probabilistic
analyses, in Western States Seismic Policy
Council Proceedings, Basin and Range Province Seismic
Hazards Summit, edited by W.R. LUND, Utah Geol.
Surv. Misc. Publ. 98-2, 110-127.
WORKING GROUP (2004): Redazione della Mappa di Pericolosità
Sismica Prevista dall’Ordinanza PCM 3274
del 20 Marzo 2003 (on line: http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.
it/ documenti/rapporto_conclusivo.pdf).
YOUNGS, R.R., F.H. SWAN, M.S. POWER, D.P. SCWARTZ and
R.K. GREEN (1987): Probabilistic analysis of earthquake
ground shaking hazard along the Wasatch Front,
Utah, in Assessment of Regional Earthquake Hazard
and Risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah, edited by P.L.
GOR and W.W. HAYS, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rep.
87-585, vol. 2, M1-M110.
(2004): A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment
for the Alps and Apennines (Italy) using historical seismicity
and new predictive ground-motion relationships,
Boll. Geofis. Teor. Appl., 45 (4), 285-304.
ALBARELLO, D., V. BOSI, F. BRAMERINI, A. LUCANTONI, G.
NASO, L. PERUZZA, F. REBEZ, F. SABETTA and D. SLEJKO
(2000): Pericolosità sismica del territorio nazionale:
carte di consenso GNDT e SSN, in Le Ricerche
de GNDT nel Campo della Pericolosità Sismica (1996-
1999), a cura di F. GALADINI, C. MELETTI and A. REBEZ,
265-273.
AMBRASEYS, N.N., K.A. SIMPSON and J.J. BOMMER (1996): Prediction of horizontal response spectra in Europe,
Earth Eng. Struct. Dyn., 25, 371-400.
BENDER, B. (1983): Maximum likelihood estimation of bvalues
for magnitude grouped data, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am., 73 (3), 831-851.
BENDER, B.K. and D.M. PERKINS (1993): Treatment of parameter
uncertainty and variability for a single seismic
hazard map, Earthquake Spectra, 9, 165-195.
BUILDING SEISMIC SAFETY COUNCIL (1997): NEHRP Recommended
Provision for Seismic Regulations for New
Buildings and Other Structures (Washington, D.C.).
CAMASSI, R., P. ALBINI, V. CASTELLI, C. MIRTO, D. MOLIN
and M. STUCCHI (2002): Valutazioni di completezza dei
dati di intensità: alcuni risultati di un approccio di tipo
storico, in XXXI Convegno Nazionale del Gruppo
Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, 19-21 November
2002, Roma (Italy), Riassunti, 122-124.
CONSOLE, R. and M. MURRU (2001): A simple and testable
model for earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 106
(B5), 8699-8711.
CRAMER, C.H. (2001): A seismic hazard uncertainty analysis
for the New Madrid seismic zone, Eng. Geol., 62,
251-266.
CRAMER, C.H., M.D. PETERSEN and M.S. REICHLE (1996): A
Monte Carlo approach in estimating uncertainty for a
seismic hazard assessment of Los Angeles, Ventura and
Orange Counties, California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,
86 (6), 1681-1691.
CRAMER, C.H., R.L. WHEELER and C.S. MUELLER (2002):
Uncertainty analysis for seismic hazard in the Southern
Illinois Basin, Seismol. Res. Lett., 73 (5), 792-805.
FRANKEL, A. (1995): Mapping seismic hazard in the Central
and Eastern United States, Seismol. Res. Lett., 66 (4),
8-21.
GRUPPO DI LAVORO CPTI (1999): Catalogo Parametrico dei
Terremoti Italiani (ING, GNDT, SGA, SSN), (Ed.
Compositori, Bologna), pp. 92.
GUTENBERG, B. and C.F. RICHTER (1949): Seismicity of the
Earth and Associated Phenomena (Princeton University
Press, Princeton).
MALAGNINI, L., R.B. HERRMANN and M. DI BONA (2000):
Ground-motion scaling in the Apennines (Italy), Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am., 90, 1062-1081.
MALAGNINI, L., A. AKINCI, R.B. HERRMANN, N.A. PINO and
L. SCOGNAMIGLIO (2002): Characteristic of the groundmotion
in Northeastern Italy, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,
92 (6), 2186-2204.
MCGUIRE, R.K. (1977): Effects of uncertainty in seismicity
on estimates of seismic hazard for the east coast of the
United States, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 67, 827-848.
MCGUIRE, R.K and K.M. SHEDLOCK (1981): Statistical Uncertainty
in seismic hazard evaluations in the United
States, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 71, 1287-1308.
MELETTI, C., E. PATACCA and P. SCANDONE (2000): Construction
of a seismotectonics model: the case of Italy,
Pure Appl. Geophys., 157, 11-35.
MONTONE, P., S.PONDRELLI, A. AMATO and S. PIERDOMINICI
(2003): An improved stress map of Italy and Central
Mediterranean, in EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly
2003, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 5, 10362.
MORASCA, P., L. MALAGNINI, A. AKINCI, D. SPALLAROSSA
and R. HERRMANN (2004): Ground-Motion Scaling in
the Western Alps, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (submitted).
PETERSEN, M.D., C.H. CRAMER, W.A. BRYANT, M.S. REICHLE
and T.R. TOPPOZADA (1996): Preliminary seismic
hazard assessment for Los Angeles, Ventura and Orange
Counties, California, effected by the January 17
1994 Northridge earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,
86, S247-S261.
REITER, L. (1990): Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and
Insights (Columbia University, New York), pp. 253.
ROMEO, A., A. PACIELLO and D. RINALDIS (2000): Seismic
hazard maps of Italy including site effects, Soil Dyn.
Earthquake Eng., 20, 85-92.
SABETTA, F. and A. PUGLIESE (1996): Estimation of response
spectra and simulation of nonstationary earthquake
ground-motions, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 86 (2),
337-352.
SLEIKO, D., L. PERUZZA and A. REBEZ (1998): Seismic hazard
maps of Italy, Ann. Geofis., 41 (2), 183-214.
WONG, I.G. and S.S. OLIG (1998): Seismic hazards in the
basin and range province: perspectives from probabilistic
analyses, in Western States Seismic Policy
Council Proceedings, Basin and Range Province Seismic
Hazards Summit, edited by W.R. LUND, Utah Geol.
Surv. Misc. Publ. 98-2, 110-127.
WORKING GROUP (2004): Redazione della Mappa di Pericolosità
Sismica Prevista dall’Ordinanza PCM 3274
del 20 Marzo 2003 (on line: http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.
it/ documenti/rapporto_conclusivo.pdf).
YOUNGS, R.R., F.H. SWAN, M.S. POWER, D.P. SCWARTZ and
R.K. GREEN (1987): Probabilistic analysis of earthquake
ground shaking hazard along the Wasatch Front,
Utah, in Assessment of Regional Earthquake Hazard
and Risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah, edited by P.L.
GOR and W.W. HAYS, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rep.
87-585, vol. 2, M1-M110.
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