Comparing Patterns of Spatial Relationships for Susceptibility Prediction of Landslide Occurrences

Abstract

This contribution proposes a cautious way of constructing the susceptibility classes obtained from favourability modeling of landslide occurrences. It is based on the ranks of the numerical values obtained by the modelling. Such ranks can be displayed in the form of histograms, cumulative curves, and prediction patterns resembling maps. A number of models have been proposed and in this contribution the following will be compared in terms of their respective rankings for equal area classes: fuzzy set function, empirical likelihood ratio, linear and logistic regression, and Bayesian prediction function. The analyses performed and contrasted exemplify a generalized methodology for comparing predictions that should allow evaluating prediction patterns from any model. Unfortunately, many applications in the scientific literature use methods of characterizing prediction quality that make comparison hard or impossible. A database from a study area in the Mountain Community of Tirano in Valtellina, Lombardy Region, northern Italy, is used to illustrate how the results of the different models and strategies of analysis show the relevance of the properties of the database over those of the models.