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Some reasoning on the improvement of the ETAS modeling at the occurrence of the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
fast trak 5/59(2016)
Issued date
2016
Subjects
Abstract
This study presents an application of the ETAS model to the first 20 days of the 2016 Central Italy
sequence. Despite of the provisional nature of data, the model is able to describe the occurrence rate, but
for the first hours after the mainshock occurrence. A sensitivity analysis of the model to two uncertainty
sources, the model parameters and the occurrence history, shows that the second has a main role in
controlling the performance of the ETAS model. Previous results, together with the clear inability of ETAS
to forecast the occurrence of a sequence before its starting time, give important suggestions about possible
improvements.
sequence. Despite of the provisional nature of data, the model is able to describe the occurrence rate, but
for the first hours after the mainshock occurrence. A sensitivity analysis of the model to two uncertainty
sources, the model parameters and the occurrence history, shows that the second has a main role in
controlling the performance of the ETAS model. Previous results, together with the clear inability of ETAS
to forecast the occurrence of a sequence before its starting time, give important suggestions about possible
improvements.
Type
article
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7202-17425-1-PB-2.pdf
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Format
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