Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1085
AuthorsCasarotti, E.* 
Selva, J.* 
TitleForecasting the effects of the Andaman Islands - Sumatra megathrust earthquakes (Dec. 2004 and Mar. 2005) on volcanoes in the surrounding area
Issue Date2006
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/1085
KeywordsEarthquake-volcano interaction, stastical model, stress field,
stress field
Statistical model
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability 
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology 
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis 
AbstractThe Andaman Islands - Sumatra earthquake (Mw = 9.3, Dec. 2004) and the subsequent Sumatra earthquake (Mw = 8.7, Mar. 2005) represent one of most energetic sequence of earthquakes ever recorded. Since both events occurred in a strongly active volcanic region, their exceptionally strong stress perturbation gives the opportunity to understand the effects of stress perturbations on volcanic systems. Here, we set the rules for a forward test of the causal relationship between stress perturbation and subsequent volcanic eruptions, by means of the comparison of the spatio-temporal distribution of the eruptions which follow the earthquakes with the co- and the post-seismic stress field due to the earthquakes. In practice, we forecast that the volcanic activity of the next 30 years will be significantly promoted by the stress perturbation; thus, we define the rules for an objective test of such an hypothesis. Given the extremely high values of stress perturbation due to this sequence of earthquakes, the results of our test will definitively provide a reliable evaluation of the possible statistical impact of earthquake-eruption interaction on long-term volcanic hazard assessments.
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