A mechanism of midlatitude noontime foE long-term variations inferred from European observations

Abstract

Manually scaled June noontime monthly median foE values at three European stations Rome, Juliusruh, and Slough/Chilton were used to understand the mechanism of foE long-term variations. The 11 year running mean smoothed foE manifests long-term (for some solar cycles) variations with the rising phase at the end of 1960–1985 and the falling phase after 1985. A close relationship (even in details) between (foEave)11y and (R12)11y variations with the correlation coefficient of 0.996 (absolutely significant according to Fisher F criterion) suggests that the Sun is the source of these (foEave)11y long-term variations. After removing solar activity long-term variations the residual (foEave)11y trend is very small (~0.029% per decade) being absolutely insignificant. This means that all (foEave)11y variations are removed with one solar activity index, (R12)11y, i.e., this means that long-term variations are fully controlled by solar activity. Theory of midlatitude daytime E region tells us that long-term variations of solar EUV in two lines λ = 977 Å (CIII) and λ = 1025.7 Å (HLyβ) and X-ray radiation with λ<100 Å (both manifesting the same long-term variations with the rising phase at the end of 1960–1985 and the falling phase after 1985) are responsible for the observed (foEave)11y variations. Therefore, the observed daytime midlatitude foE long-term variations have a natural (not anthropogenic) origin related to long-term variations of solar activity. No peculiarities in relation with the last deep solar minimum in 2008–2009 have been revealed.