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Suitability of energy cone for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment: validation tests at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy)
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/78(2016)
ISSN
0258-8900
Electronic ISSN
1432-0819
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Pages (printed)
79
Issued date
2016
Abstract
Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are gravitydriven
hot mixtures of gas and volcanic particles which can
propagate at high speed and cover distances up to several tens
of kilometers around a given volcano. Therefore, they pose a
severe hazard to the surroundings of explosive volcanoes able
to produce such phenomena. Despite this threat, probabilistic
volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) of PDCs is still in an
early stage of development. PVHA is rooted in the quantification
of the large uncertainties (aleatory and epistemic)
which characterize volcanic hazard analyses. This quantification
typically requires a big dataset of hazard footprints obtained
from numerical simulations of the physical process. For
PDCs, numerical models range from very sophisticated (not
useful for PVHA because of their very long runtimes) to very
simple models (criticized because of their highly simplified physics). We present here a systematic and robust validation
testing of a simple PDC model, the energy cone (EC), to
unravel whether it can be applied to PVHA of PDCs. Using
past PDC deposits at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei
(Italy), we assess the ability of EC to capture the values and
variability in some relevant variables for hazard assessment,
i.e., area of PDC invasion and maximum runout. In terms of
area of invasion, the highest Jaccard coefficients range from
0.33 to 0.86 which indicates an equal or better performance
compared to other volcanic mass-flow models. The p values
for the observed maximum runouts vary from 0.003 to 0.44.
Finally, the frequencies of PDC arrival computed from the EC
are similar to those determined from the spatial distribution of
past PDC deposits, with high PDC-arrival frequencies over an
∼8-km radius from the crater area at Somma-Vesuvius and
around the Astroni crater at Campi Flegrei. The insights derived
from our validation tests seem to indicate that the EC is a
suitable candidate to compute PVHA of PDCs.
hot mixtures of gas and volcanic particles which can
propagate at high speed and cover distances up to several tens
of kilometers around a given volcano. Therefore, they pose a
severe hazard to the surroundings of explosive volcanoes able
to produce such phenomena. Despite this threat, probabilistic
volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) of PDCs is still in an
early stage of development. PVHA is rooted in the quantification
of the large uncertainties (aleatory and epistemic)
which characterize volcanic hazard analyses. This quantification
typically requires a big dataset of hazard footprints obtained
from numerical simulations of the physical process. For
PDCs, numerical models range from very sophisticated (not
useful for PVHA because of their very long runtimes) to very
simple models (criticized because of their highly simplified physics). We present here a systematic and robust validation
testing of a simple PDC model, the energy cone (EC), to
unravel whether it can be applied to PVHA of PDCs. Using
past PDC deposits at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei
(Italy), we assess the ability of EC to capture the values and
variability in some relevant variables for hazard assessment,
i.e., area of PDC invasion and maximum runout. In terms of
area of invasion, the highest Jaccard coefficients range from
0.33 to 0.86 which indicates an equal or better performance
compared to other volcanic mass-flow models. The p values
for the observed maximum runouts vary from 0.003 to 0.44.
Finally, the frequencies of PDC arrival computed from the EC
are similar to those determined from the spatial distribution of
past PDC deposits, with high PDC-arrival frequencies over an
∼8-km radius from the crater area at Somma-Vesuvius and
around the Astroni crater at Campi Flegrei. The insights derived
from our validation tests seem to indicate that the EC is a
suitable candidate to compute PVHA of PDCs.
References
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computer models to quantify volcanic hazards. Technometrics 51(4)
Bertagnini A, Landi P, Rosi M, Vigliargio A (1998) The Pomici di
Base plinian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius. J Volcanol Geoth
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Bevilacqua A, Isaia R, Neri A, Vitale S, AspinallWP, BissonM, Flandoli
F, Baxter PJ, Bertagnini A, Esposti Ongaro T, Iannuzzi E (2015)
Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with
uncertainty assessment: 1. Vent opening maps. J Geophysi Res:
Solid Earth 120(4):2309–2329
Bonadonna C, Connor CB, Houghton BF, Connor L, Byrne M, Laing A,
Hincks TK (2005) Probabilisticmodeling of tephra dispersal: hazard
assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, New
Zealand. J Geophys Res: SolidEarth (1978–2012), 110(B3).
Brancaccio L, Cinque A, Romano P, Rosskopf C, Russo F, Santangelo N,
Santo A (1991) Geomorphology and Neotectonic evolution of a
sector of the Tyrrenian flank of the Southern Apennines (region of
Naples). Z Geomorph N F 82:47–58
Branney MJ, Kokelaar BP (2002) Pyroclastic density currents and the
sedimentation of ignimbrites. Geological Society of London.
Charbonnier SJ, Connor CB, Connor L, Dixon T, Gertisser R (2011)
Application of field observations and remote sensing to numerical
modeling and hazard assessment of volcanic flows: an example
from Merapi Volcano, Indonesia. In Conference Proceedings—
Remote Sensing, Natural Hazards and Environmental Change,
Eds: J.-C. Thouret, S.C. Liew and A. Gupta, CERAMAC special
issue 3, 35–38.
Cioni R, Bertagnini A, Santacroce R, Andronico D (2008)
Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma-Vesuvius
(Italy): towards a new classification scheme. J Volcanol Geoth
Res 178:331–346
Cioni R, Santacroce R, Sbrana A (1999) Pyroclastic deposits as a guide
for reconstructing the multi-stage evolution of the Somma-Vesuvius
Caldera. B Volcanol 60:207–222
Córdoba G (2007) Dilute particle-laden currents: dynamics and deposit
patterns. Dissertation, University of Bristol.
Costa A,Dell’Erba F, DiVitoMA, Isaia R, Macedonio G, OrsiG, Pfeiffer
T (2009) Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei
caldera (Italy). B Volcanol 71(3):259–273
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Ricciolino P, Tizzani P, Casu F, Lanari R, Manzo M, Martini M,
Sansosti E, Zinno I (2015) Magma injection beneath the urban area
of Naples: a new mechanism for the 2012–2013 volcanic unrest at
Campi Flegrei caldera. Scientific reports 5
Dalbey K, Patra AK, Pitman EB, Bursik MI, Sheridan MF (2008) Input
uncertainty propagation methods and hazard mapping of geophysical
mass flows. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 113(B5):1978–2012
de Vita S, Orsi G, Civetta L, Carandente A, D’Antonio M, Deino A, di
Cesare T, Di Vito MA, Fisher RV, Isaia R, Marotta E, Necco A, Ort
M, Pappalardo L, Piochi M, Southon J (1999) The Agnano-Monte
Spina eruption (4100 years BP) in the restless Campi Flegrei caldera
(Italy). J Volcanol Geoth Res 91:269–301
Deino AL, Orsi G, de Vita S, Piochi M (2004) The age of the Neapolitan
Yellow Tuff caldera-forming eruption (Campi Flegrei caldera—
Italy) assessed by 40Ar/39Ar dating method. J Volcanol Geoth Res
133:157–170
Dellino P, La Volpe L (2000) Structures and grain size distribution in
surge deposits as a tool for modelling the dynamics of dilute pyroclastic
density currents at La Fossa di Vulcano (Aeolian Islands,
Italy). J Volcanol Geoth Res 96(1):57–78
Di Vito MA, Isaia R, Orsi G, Southon J, de Vita S, D’Antonio M,
Pappalardo L, Piochi M (1999) Volcanism and deformation since
12,000 years at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). J Volcanol Geoth
Res 91(2):221–246 Doronzo DM (2012) Two new end members of pyroclastic density currents:
forced convection-dominated and inertia-dominated. J
Volcanol Geoth Res 219:87–91
Doronzo DM, de Tullio MD, Pascazio G, Dellino P, Liu G (2015) On the
interaction between shear dusty currents and buildings in vertical
collapse: theoretical aspects, experimental observations, and 3D numerical
simulation. J Volcanol Geoth Res 302:190–198
Doyle EE, Hogg AJ, Mader HM, Sparks RSJ (2010) A two-layer model
for the evolution and propagation of dense and dilute regions of
pyroclastic currents. J Volcanol Geoth Res 190:365–378
Druitt TH (1998) Pyroclastic density currents. Geol Soc Lond, Spec Publ
145(1):145–182
Dvorak JJ, Berrino G (1991) Recent ground movement and seismic activity
in Campi Flegrei, southern Italy: episodic growth of a resurgent
dome. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 96(B2):2309–2323
Esposti Ongaro T, Neri A, Menconi G, de’Michieli Vitturi M, Marianelli
P, Cavazzoni C, Erbacci G, Baxter PJ (2008) Transient 3D numerical
simulations of column collapse and pyroclastic density current scenarios
at Vesuvius. J Volcanol Geoth Res 178:378–396
Favalli M, Chirico GD, Papale P, Pareschi MT, Boschi E (2009) Lava
flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano, D.R.C. B Volcanol 71:363–374
Fedele FG, Giaccio B, Isaia R, Orsi G (2003) The Campanian Ignimbrite
eruption, Heinrich event 4, and Palaeolithic change in Europe: a
high-resolution investigation. In: Robock, A., Oppenheimer, C.
(eds) Volcanism and the Earth’s atmosphere, AGU Geophysical
Monograph Series, pp 301–325.
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Andronico D (2010) Pyroclastic flow hazard assessment at
Somma–Vesuvius based on the geological record. B Volcanol 72:
1021–1038
Hazlett RW, Buesch D, Anderson JL, Elan R, Scandone R (1991)
Geology, failure conditions, and implications of seismogenic avalanches
of the 1944 eruption atVesuvius, Italy. J Volcanol Geoth Res
47:249–264
Heim A (1882) Der Bergsturz von Elm. Z. Dtsch Geol Ges 34:74–115
Jaccard P (1926) Le coefficient generique et le coefficient de
communaute dans la flore marocaine. Impr. Commerciale.
Kalbfleisch J (1979) Probability and statistical inference, vol Vol. 2.
Springer-Verlag, New York
Komorowski JC, Jenkins S, Baxter PJ, Picquout A, Lavigne F,
Charbonnier S, Gertisser R, Preece K, Cholik N, Budi-Santoso A,
Surono (2013) Paroxysmal dome explosion during theMerapi 2010
eruption: processes and facies relationships of associated highenergy
pyroclastic density currents. J Volcanol Geoth Res 261:
260–294
Malin MC, Sheridan MF (1982) Computer-assisted mapping of pyroclastic
surges. Science 217:637–640
MarzocchiW, Sandri L, Selva J (2010) BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for
long-term volcanic hazard assessment. B Volcanol 72:705–716
MarzocchiW, Taroni M, Selva J (2015) Accounting for epistemic uncertainty
in PSHA: logic tree and ensemble modeling. B Seismol Soc
Am 105(4):2151–2159
Neri A, Bevilacqua A, Esposti Ongaro T, Isaia R, AspinallWP, Bisson M,
Flandoli F, Baxter PJ, Bertagnini A, Ianuzzi E, Orsucci S, Pistolesi
M, Rosi M, Vitale S (2015) Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi
Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 2. Pyroclastic
density current invasion maps. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 120(4):
2330–2349
Orsi G, Di Vito MA, Isaia R (2004) Volcanic hazard assessment at the
restless Campi Flegrei caldera. B Volcanol 66:514–530
Orsi G, Di VitoMA, Selva J,MarzocchiW(2009) Long-term forecast of
eruption style and size at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). Earth Planet
Sc Lett 287:265–276
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(2010) Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki, NZ. Nat Hazards 53:
483–501
Rosi M, Principe C, Vecci R (1993) The 1631 Vesuvius eruption. A
reconstruction based on historical and stratigraphical data. J
Volcanol Geoth Res 58:151–182
Salt JD (2008) The seven habits of highly defective simulation projects.
Journal of Simulation 2(3):155–161
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(2016) Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard
from Neapolitan volcanoes. Scientific reports 6
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multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru). B
Volcanol 76:771–797
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short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra
fallout. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 119(12):8805–8826
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hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera,
Italy. B Volcanol 74:497–510
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eruption of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe. B Volcanol 43-2:
397–402
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pyroclastic flows at Volcan Colima, Mexico. J Volcanol
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the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic fows in
Campi Flegrei (Italy). J Volcanol Geoth Res 116:63–78 Bayarri M, Berger JO, Calder ES, Dalbey K, Lunagomez S, Patra AK,
Pitman EB, Spiller ET, Wolpert RL (2009) Using statistical and
computer models to quantify volcanic hazards. Technometrics 51(4)
Bertagnini A, Landi P, Rosi M, Vigliargio A (1998) The Pomici di
Base plinian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius. J Volcanol Geoth
Res 83:219–239
Bevilacqua A, Isaia R, Neri A, Vitale S, AspinallWP, BissonM, Flandoli
F, Baxter PJ, Bertagnini A, Esposti Ongaro T, Iannuzzi E (2015)
Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with
uncertainty assessment: 1. Vent opening maps. J Geophysi Res:
Solid Earth 120(4):2309–2329
Bonadonna C, Connor CB, Houghton BF, Connor L, Byrne M, Laing A,
Hincks TK (2005) Probabilisticmodeling of tephra dispersal: hazard
assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, New
Zealand. J Geophys Res: SolidEarth (1978–2012), 110(B3).
Brancaccio L, Cinque A, Romano P, Rosskopf C, Russo F, Santangelo N,
Santo A (1991) Geomorphology and Neotectonic evolution of a
sector of the Tyrrenian flank of the Southern Apennines (region of
Naples). Z Geomorph N F 82:47–58
Branney MJ, Kokelaar BP (2002) Pyroclastic density currents and the
sedimentation of ignimbrites. Geological Society of London.
Charbonnier SJ, Connor CB, Connor L, Dixon T, Gertisser R (2011)
Application of field observations and remote sensing to numerical
modeling and hazard assessment of volcanic flows: an example
from Merapi Volcano, Indonesia. In Conference Proceedings—
Remote Sensing, Natural Hazards and Environmental Change,
Eds: J.-C. Thouret, S.C. Liew and A. Gupta, CERAMAC special
issue 3, 35–38.
Cioni R, Bertagnini A, Santacroce R, Andronico D (2008)
Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma-Vesuvius
(Italy): towards a new classification scheme. J Volcanol Geoth
Res 178:331–346
Cioni R, Santacroce R, Sbrana A (1999) Pyroclastic deposits as a guide
for reconstructing the multi-stage evolution of the Somma-Vesuvius
Caldera. B Volcanol 60:207–222
Córdoba G (2007) Dilute particle-laden currents: dynamics and deposit
patterns. Dissertation, University of Bristol.
Costa A,Dell’Erba F, DiVitoMA, Isaia R, Macedonio G, OrsiG, Pfeiffer
T (2009) Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei
caldera (Italy). B Volcanol 71(3):259–273
D’Auria L, Pepe S, Castaldo R, Giudicepietro F, Macedonio G,
Ricciolino P, Tizzani P, Casu F, Lanari R, Manzo M, Martini M,
Sansosti E, Zinno I (2015) Magma injection beneath the urban area
of Naples: a new mechanism for the 2012–2013 volcanic unrest at
Campi Flegrei caldera. Scientific reports 5
Dalbey K, Patra AK, Pitman EB, Bursik MI, Sheridan MF (2008) Input
uncertainty propagation methods and hazard mapping of geophysical
mass flows. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 113(B5):1978–2012
de Vita S, Orsi G, Civetta L, Carandente A, D’Antonio M, Deino A, di
Cesare T, Di Vito MA, Fisher RV, Isaia R, Marotta E, Necco A, Ort
M, Pappalardo L, Piochi M, Southon J (1999) The Agnano-Monte
Spina eruption (4100 years BP) in the restless Campi Flegrei caldera
(Italy). J Volcanol Geoth Res 91:269–301
Deino AL, Orsi G, de Vita S, Piochi M (2004) The age of the Neapolitan
Yellow Tuff caldera-forming eruption (Campi Flegrei caldera—
Italy) assessed by 40Ar/39Ar dating method. J Volcanol Geoth Res
133:157–170
Dellino P, La Volpe L (2000) Structures and grain size distribution in
surge deposits as a tool for modelling the dynamics of dilute pyroclastic
density currents at La Fossa di Vulcano (Aeolian Islands,
Italy). J Volcanol Geoth Res 96(1):57–78
Di Vito MA, Isaia R, Orsi G, Southon J, de Vita S, D’Antonio M,
Pappalardo L, Piochi M (1999) Volcanism and deformation since
12,000 years at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). J Volcanol Geoth
Res 91(2):221–246 Doronzo DM (2012) Two new end members of pyroclastic density currents:
forced convection-dominated and inertia-dominated. J
Volcanol Geoth Res 219:87–91
Doronzo DM, de Tullio MD, Pascazio G, Dellino P, Liu G (2015) On the
interaction between shear dusty currents and buildings in vertical
collapse: theoretical aspects, experimental observations, and 3D numerical
simulation. J Volcanol Geoth Res 302:190–198
Doyle EE, Hogg AJ, Mader HM, Sparks RSJ (2010) A two-layer model
for the evolution and propagation of dense and dilute regions of
pyroclastic currents. J Volcanol Geoth Res 190:365–378
Druitt TH (1998) Pyroclastic density currents. Geol Soc Lond, Spec Publ
145(1):145–182
Dvorak JJ, Berrino G (1991) Recent ground movement and seismic activity
in Campi Flegrei, southern Italy: episodic growth of a resurgent
dome. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 96(B2):2309–2323
Esposti Ongaro T, Neri A, Menconi G, de’Michieli Vitturi M, Marianelli
P, Cavazzoni C, Erbacci G, Baxter PJ (2008) Transient 3D numerical
simulations of column collapse and pyroclastic density current scenarios
at Vesuvius. J Volcanol Geoth Res 178:378–396
Favalli M, Chirico GD, Papale P, Pareschi MT, Boschi E (2009) Lava
flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano, D.R.C. B Volcanol 71:363–374
Fedele FG, Giaccio B, Isaia R, Orsi G (2003) The Campanian Ignimbrite
eruption, Heinrich event 4, and Palaeolithic change in Europe: a
high-resolution investigation. In: Robock, A., Oppenheimer, C.
(eds) Volcanism and the Earth’s atmosphere, AGU Geophysical
Monograph Series, pp 301–325.
Gurioli L, Sulpizio R, Cioni R, Sbrana A, Santacroce R, Luperini W,
Andronico D (2010) Pyroclastic flow hazard assessment at
Somma–Vesuvius based on the geological record. B Volcanol 72:
1021–1038
Hazlett RW, Buesch D, Anderson JL, Elan R, Scandone R (1991)
Geology, failure conditions, and implications of seismogenic avalanches
of the 1944 eruption atVesuvius, Italy. J Volcanol Geoth Res
47:249–264
Heim A (1882) Der Bergsturz von Elm. Z. Dtsch Geol Ges 34:74–115
Jaccard P (1926) Le coefficient generique et le coefficient de
communaute dans la flore marocaine. Impr. Commerciale.
Kalbfleisch J (1979) Probability and statistical inference, vol Vol. 2.
Springer-Verlag, New York
Komorowski JC, Jenkins S, Baxter PJ, Picquout A, Lavigne F,
Charbonnier S, Gertisser R, Preece K, Cholik N, Budi-Santoso A,
Surono (2013) Paroxysmal dome explosion during theMerapi 2010
eruption: processes and facies relationships of associated highenergy
pyroclastic density currents. J Volcanol Geoth Res 261:
260–294
Malin MC, Sheridan MF (1982) Computer-assisted mapping of pyroclastic
surges. Science 217:637–640
MarzocchiW, Sandri L, Selva J (2010) BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for
long-term volcanic hazard assessment. B Volcanol 72:705–716
MarzocchiW, Taroni M, Selva J (2015) Accounting for epistemic uncertainty
in PSHA: logic tree and ensemble modeling. B Seismol Soc
Am 105(4):2151–2159
Neri A, Bevilacqua A, Esposti Ongaro T, Isaia R, AspinallWP, Bisson M,
Flandoli F, Baxter PJ, Bertagnini A, Ianuzzi E, Orsucci S, Pistolesi
M, Rosi M, Vitale S (2015) Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi
Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 2. Pyroclastic
density current invasion maps. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 120(4):
2330–2349
Orsi G, Di Vito MA, Isaia R (2004) Volcanic hazard assessment at the
restless Campi Flegrei caldera. B Volcanol 66:514–530
Orsi G, Di VitoMA, Selva J,MarzocchiW(2009) Long-term forecast of
eruption style and size at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). Earth Planet
Sc Lett 287:265–276
Procter JN, Cronin SJ, Platz T, Patra A, Dalbey K, Sheridan M, Neall V
(2010) Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki, NZ. Nat Hazards 53:
483–501
Rosi M, Principe C, Vecci R (1993) The 1631 Vesuvius eruption. A
reconstruction based on historical and stratigraphical data. J
Volcanol Geoth Res 58:151–182
Salt JD (2008) The seven habits of highly defective simulation projects.
Journal of Simulation 2(3):155–161
Sandri L, Costa A, Selva J, Tonini R, Macedonio G, Folch A, Sulpizio R
(2016) Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard
from Neapolitan volcanoes. Scientific reports 6
Sandri L, Thouret J-C, Constantinescu R, Biass S, Tonini R (2014) Longterm
multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru). B
Volcanol 76:771–797
Selva J, Costa A, Sandri L, MacedonioG, MarzocchiW(2014) Probabilistic
short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra
fallout. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 119(12):8805–8826
Selva J, Orsi G, Di Vito MA, Marzocchi W, Sandri L (2012) Probability
hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera,
Italy. B Volcanol 74:497–510
Sheridan MF (1980) Pyroclastic block flow from the September, 1976,
eruption of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe. B Volcanol 43-2:
397–402
Sheridan MF,Macías JL (1995) Estimation of risk probability for gravitydriven
pyroclastic flows at Volcan Colima, Mexico. J Volcanol
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