Australian paleoseismology: towards a better basis for seismic hazard estimation

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses in Australia rely fundamentally on the assumption that earthquakes recorded in the past are indicative of where earthquakes will occur in the future. No attempt has yet been made to assess the potential contribution that data from active fault sources might make to the modelling process, despite successful incorporation of such data into United States and New Zealand hazard maps in recent years. In this paper we review the limited history of paleoseismological investigation in Australia and discuss the potential contribution of active fault source data towards improving our understanding of intraplate seismicity. The availability and suitability of Australian active fault source data for incorporation into future probabilistic hazard models is assessed, and appropriate methodologies for achieving this proposed.