http://hdl.handle.net/2122/295 Mon, 20 May 2013 22:37:11 GMT 2013-05-20T22:37:11Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8574 Title: Rapporto sulle attività geofisiche, oceanografiche e di campionamento durante la crociera PANSTR12 con Nave Aretusa: Isole Eolie (Stromboli, Panarea, Salina) (2012-06-30 - 2012-07-14) Authors: Dialti, L.; Marina Militare Italiana; De Lucia, A.; Marina Militare Italiana; Marziani, F.; Marina Militare Italiana; Niccolini, A.; Marina Militare Italiana; Zeppetella, A.; Marina Militare Italiana; Di Fava, M.; Marina Militare Italiana; Guideri, M.; Istituto Idrografico della Marina; Carmisciano, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Cocchi, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Miccini, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Bortoluzzi, G.; CNR-ISMAR; Aliani, S.; CNR-ISMAR Abstract: All’interno della collaborazione Coordinamento Nazionale per la Geofisica Marina (CO.NA.GEM.), che riunisce i vari Istituti e organizzazioni tecnico-scientifiche italiani, si è svolta la campagna denominata PANSTR12, realizzata con Nave Aretusa della Marina Militare Italiana (MMI). PANSTR12 ha avuto come obbiettivi principali la caratterizzazione morfologica e geofisica della porzione sommersa della Sciara del Fuoco, Isola di Stromboli e la ripetizione di rilievi multibeam e magnetometrici dell’area degli isolotti di Panarea realizzati a partire dal 2002, nell’ottica di permettere analisi e valutazioni sul percorso evolutivo dei fenomeni legati all’eruzione gassosa, anche in relazione all’assetto tettonico e geodinamico dell’arco vulcanico delle Eolie. La campagna PANSTR12 è stata realizzata attraverso una proficua collaborazione tra l’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), gli Istituti di Scienze Marine (ISMAR) di Bologna (ISMAR-BO) e di La Spezia (ISMAR-SP), entrambi del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), e l’Istituto Idrografico della Marina (IIM). Mon, 31 Dec 2012 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8574 2012-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8392 Title: Assessment of the impact caused by natural disasters: simplified procedures and open problems Authors: Petrucci, Olga; CNR-IRPI Editors: Tiefenbacher, J.P. Abstract: A natural hazard is a geophysical, atmospheric or hydrological event (e.g., earthquake, landslide, tsunami, windstorm, flood or drought) that has the potential to cause harm or loss, while a natural disaster is the occurrence of an extreme hazard event that impacts on communities causing damage, disruption and casualties, and leaving the affected communities unable to function normally without outside assistance (Twig, 2007). The definition of natural disaster impact (NDI) can change according to both the aim of the study and the scientist assessing it. It can be defined as constituting the direct, indirect and intangible losses caused on environment and society by a natural disaster (Swiss Re, 1998). Direct losses include physical effects such as destruction and changes that reduce the functionality of an individual or structure. Damages to people (death/injury), buildings, their contents, and vehicles are included, as are clean-up and disposal costs. Indirect losses affect society by disrupting or damaging utility services and local businesses. Loss of revenue; increase in cost; expenses connected to the provision of assistance, lodging, and drinking water; and costs associated with the need to drive longer distances because of blocked roads are included. Intangible losses include psychological impairments caused by both direct and intangible losses that individuals personally suffer during the disaster. The Natural Disaster Impact Assessment (NDIA) is crucial in helping individuals to estimate replacement costs and to conduct cost-benefit analyses in allotting resources to prevent and mitigate the consequences of damage (UNEP-ECLAC, 2000). A general NDIA procedure has not yet been developed; several approaches are available in literature and their applicability depends on the accessibility of damage data. Possible end users of NDIA include the following (Lindell & Prater, 2003): 1. Governments, with an interest in estimating direct losses to report to taxpayers and to identify segments of the community that have been (or might be) disproportionately affected 2. Community leaders, who may need to use loss data after a disaster strikes to determine if external assistance is necessary and, if so, how much. 3. Planners, who can develop damage predictions to assess the effects of alternative hazard adjustments. Knowing both the expected losses and the extent to which those losses could be reduced makes it possible to implement cost-effective mitigation strategies. 4. Insurers, who need data on the maximum losses in their portfolios to guarantee their solvency or even to undertake additional measures to alleviate the risk that they would face in case of a disaster (i.e., the use of catastrophe bonds which are risk-linked securities that transfer a specified set of risks from a sponsor to investors) (Noy & Nualsri, 2011). Data availability and reliability, especially for old events, represent constraints in the NDIA context because of several issues of very different type: 1. Data availability, for current events, depends on the time at which data gathering started. It is impossible to decide a priori when data have to be gathered: it primarily depends on the type of phenomenon causing the disaster and its magnitude, and secondly on the scope of the assessment (for example, the assessment should not be unnecessarily delayed as there is an urgent need to elicit support from the international community) (ECLAC, 2003). 2. Long-term losses must sometimes be determined over a period of years. Slow landslides, for example, can cause damage over long periods. Intangible damage like disaster-related stress also requires years to be detected (Bland et al., 1996). 3. In most countries, there are no agencies responsible for gathering damage data. Damage caused by severest events can be mined from international databases, while data on less severe events can be obtained by means of specific historical studies. 4. Data on property damage can depreciate the value of property, thus they would not be available or not completely reliable (Highland, 2003). 5. For some type of disasters, as landslides or floods, the costs of damages to structures such as roads are often merged with maintenance costs and are therefore not labelled as damage. In addition, when heavy rains trigger both landslides and floods (Petrucci and Polemio, 2009), it is difficult to separate landslide damage from flood damage. 6. Developing countries have an incentive to exaggerate damage to receive higher amounts of international assistance; thus, in these cases, data may not be entirely reliable (Toya & Skidmore, 2007). This chapter starts with a panoramic of the different approaches reported in the literature to assess the impact of natural disasters, and then presents some simplified approaches to perform a relative and comparative assessment of the impact caused by phenomena as landslides and floods triggered by heavy rainfall during events defined as Damaging Hydrogeological Events. Finally, some indices to assess the relative impact of landslides are presented. Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8392 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8307 Title: How do volcanic rift zones relate to flank instability? Evidence from collapsing rifts at Etna Authors: Ruch, J.; Dipartimento Scienze Geologiche, Università Roma Tre, Roma, Italy; Pepe, S.; National Research Council (CNR), Istituto per il Rilevamento Elettromagnetico dell'Ambiente (IREA), Napoli, Italy; Casu, F.; National Research Council (CNR), Istituto per il Rilevamento Elettromagnetico dell'Ambiente (IREA), Napoli, Italy; Acocella, V.; Dipartimento Scienze Geologiche, Università Roma Tre, Roma, Italy; Neri, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Solaro, G.; National Research Council (CNR), Istituto per il Rilevamento Elettromagnetico dell'Ambiente (IREA), Napoli, Italy; Sansosti, E.; National Research Council (CNR), Istituto per il Rilevamento Elettromagnetico dell'Ambiente (IREA), Napoli, Italy Abstract: Volcanic rift zones, characterized by repeated dike emplacements, are expected to delimit the upper portion of unstable flanks at basaltic edifices. We use nearly two decades of InSAR observations excluding wintertime acquisitions, to analyze the relationships between rift zones, dike emplacement and flank instability at Etna. The results highlight a general eastward shift of the volcano summit, including the northeast and south rifts. This steadystate eastward movement (1-2 cm/yr) is interrupted or even reversed during transient dike injections. Detailed analysis of the northeast rift shows that only during phases of dike injection, as in 2002, does the rift transiently becomes the upper border of the unstable flank. The flank's steady-state eastward movement is inferred to result from the interplay between magmatic activity, asymmetric topographic unbuttressing, and east-dipping detachment geometry at its base. This study documents the first evidence of steady-state volcano rift instability interrupted by transient dike injection at basaltic edifices. Tue, 18 Sep 2012 22:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8307 2012-09-18T22:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8153 Title: Urban Disaster-Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources Authors: Zonno, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia; Azzaro, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Bianco, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia; Cusano, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia; D'Amico, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; D’Amico, V.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia; Falsaperla, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Galluzzo, D.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia; Langer, H.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Meroni, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia; Musacchio, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione AC, Roma, Italia; Nave, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia; Sansivero, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia; Scarfì, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Rotondi, R.; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche – Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche, Italy; Brambilla, C.; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche – Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche, Italy; Varini, E.; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche – Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche, Italy; Oliveira, C. S.; Instituto Superior Tecnico, Portugal; Ferreira, M. A.; Instituto Superior Tecnico, Portugal; Lopes, M.; Instituto Superior Tecnico, Portugal; Mota de Sá, F.; Instituto Superior Tecnico, Portugal; Nunes, J. C.; Instituto Superior Tecnico, Portugal; Carvalho, A.; Laboratorio Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Portugal; Sousa, M. L.; Laboratorio Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Portugal; Raposo, S.; Laboratorio Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Portugal; Garcia-Fernandez, M.; Agencia Estatal Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Spain; Beltran, A.; Agencia Estatal Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Spain; Jenni, J.; Agencia Estatal Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Spain; Jimenez, M. J.; Agencia Estatal Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Spain; Sigbjornsson, R.; Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, Iceland; Bernhardsdottir, A.; Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, Iceland; Olafsson, S.; Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, Iceland; Rupakhety, R.; Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, Iceland; Sigurdsson, S. U.; Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, Iceland; Thorvaldsdottir, S.; Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, Iceland; Albarello, D.; University of Siena, Italy Abstract: This contribution presents the general framework of the European project UPStrat-MAFA "Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources" and its ongoing activities. A unique probabilistic procedure is being used for seismic hazard evaluation, using both macroseismic fields and characteristics of fault sources for the analysis of data from volcanic and tectonic areas: Mt. Etna, Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy), Azores Islands (Portugal), South Iceland (Iceland), Alicante-Murcia (Spain), and mainland and offshore Portugal. An improvement of urban scale vulnerability information on building and network systems (typologies, schools, strategic buildings, lifelines, and others) is proposed in the form of a global Disruption Index, with the objective to provide a systematic way of measuring earthquake impact in urbanized areas considered as complex networks. Disaster prevention strategies are considered based on an education information system, another effective component of the disaster risk reduction given by long-term activities. Sun, 23 Sep 2012 22:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8153 2012-09-23T22:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8145 Title: Geoethics: the responsibility of geoscientists in making society more aware of natural hazards Authors: Peppoloni, Silvia; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione AC, Roma, Italia; Matteucci, Ruggero; Sapienza Università di Roma; Piacente, Sandra; Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Wasowski, Janusz; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica - Bari Abstract: The damage due to geological hazards, with frequent loss of human lives, is not entirely avoidable, but can be greatly reduced through the correct land use that respects the natural processes, through prevention and mitigation efforts, through an effective and correct information to the population. Often not responsible behaviors by politicians, as well as the need for heavy investments and the lack of information make difficult the solution of problems and slow the path to a proper management of the environment, the only way to provide a significant mitigation of damages of the geological disasters. In many countries (including Italy) the importance of the Geoscientists’s role is not yet sufficiently recognized, despite it is evident the necessity of a greater attention to geological problems by policy makers and public opinion, as well as a more adequate information about natural risks to the society. The commitment to ensure prevention and mitigation of geological hazards must be considered an ethical value and duty for those who possess the appropriate knowledge and skills. Within the above context, Geoscientists have a key role to play as experts in analyzing and managing the territory’s vulnerability: they must take responsibility to share and communicate their knowledge more effectively with all private and public stakeholders involved, paying attention to providing balanced information about risks and addressing inevitable uncertainties in natural hazard mapping, assessment, warning, and forecasting. But Geoscientists need to be more aware of their ethical responsibility, of their social duty to serve the society, care about and protect territory, and to facilitate the desirable shift from a culture of emergency to a culture of prevention. The search for balance between short-term economic issues and wider social impacts from natural hazards is an increasingly urgent need. Geoethics must be central to society’s responses to natural hazard threats. Sat, 31 Mar 2012 22:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8145 2012-03-31T22:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8109 Title: Geological events during the Holocene: an overview for Northern Europe and the Mediterranean Authors: Peppoloni, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione AC, Roma, Italia; Di Capua, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione AC, Roma, Italia Abstract: The Holocene is the most recent geological epoch spanning from about 11700 years ago to the present day. The most important human civilizations appeared during the Holocene. From the Holocene onwards, environmental changes, and the hazards associated with them, became extremely important for their impact on historical events, in some cases blending with humanity’s vicissitudes and influencing the rise and decline of civilizations. This paper summarises the geological and climatic conditions of Northern Europe during the Holocene and tries to determine whether or not they support the hypothesis formulated by Felice Vinci (Vinci, 2003) about the migration of Baltic populations towards the Mediterranean in the Bronze Age at the end of the “climatic optimum” (Houghton et al., 1990; Rohling & De Rijk, 1999). This study presents data on glacio-eustatic changes and on isostatic uplift together with information on probable tsunamis that occurred in the North Atlantic, North Sea, Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea. Moreover, some data on catastrophic events that affected the Mediterranean region are reported, because these catastrophes could have favoured the settlement of “people coming from the sea” that took advantage of the demographic and socio-economic weakening of indigenous populations (Driessen, 2002). The paper aims to provide geological and palaeogeographic constraints to the hypotheses formulated by Felice Vinci on the migration of Scandinavians towards the Mediterranean. The data analysed have been collected from the available scientific literature (see references). The amount of information available for each geological phenomenon is vast and sometimes theories developed from the same data are in conflict. The comparison between the Mediterranean and the Baltic areas (one of which could have been the theatre of the Homeric events) will be useful to find evidence of geological phenomena within the Homeric texts, giving useful indications to better understand where the poems are set or at least to provide interesting discussion points related to Felice Vinci’s hypothesis (Vinci 2003). Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8109 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8102 Title: A pilot GIS database of active faults of Mt. Etna (Sicily): A tool for integrated hazard evaluation Authors: Barreca, G.; Università degli Studi di Catania, Dipartimento di Scienze Biologiche, Geologiche ed Ambientali, Sez. Scienze della Terra, Italy; Bonforte, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Neri, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia Abstract: A pilot GIS-based system has been implemented for the assessment and analysis of hazard related to active faults affecting the eastern and southern flanks of Mt. Etna. The system structure was developed in ArcGis® environment and consists of different thematic datasets that include spatially-referenced arc-features and associated database. Arc-type features, georeferenced into WGS84 Ellipsoid UTM zone 33 Projection, represent the five main fault systems that develop in the analysed region. The backbone of the GIS-based system is constituted by the large amount of information which was collected from the literature and then stored and properly geocoded in a digital database. This consists of thirty five alpha-numeric fields which include all fault parameters available from literature such us location, kinematics, landform, slip rate, etc. Although the system has been implemented according to the most common procedures used by GIS developer, the architecture and content of the database represent a pilot backbone for digital storing of fault parameters, providing a powerful tool in modelling hazard related to the active tectonics of Mt. Etna. The database collects, organises and shares all scientific currently available information about the active faults of the volcano. Furthermore, thanks to the strong effort spent on defining the fields of the database, the structure proposed in this paper is open to the collection of further data coming from future improvements in the knowledge of the fault systems. By layering additional user-specific geographic information and managing the proposed database (topological querying) a great diversity of hazard and vulnerability maps can be produced by the user. This is a proposal of a backbone for a comprehensive geographical database of fault systems, universally applicable to other sites. Mon, 31 Dec 2012 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8102 2012-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8101 Title: Evidence for a recent change in the shallow plumbing system of Mt. Etna (Italy): Gas geochemistry and structural data during 2001–2005 Authors: Giammanco, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Neri, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Salerno, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Caltabiano, T.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Burton, M. R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia; Longo, V.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia Abstract: We analyzed crater SO2 fluxes from Mt Etna, together with soil CO2 effluxes from the volcano's flanks, in the period from 2001 to 2005. Between the 2001 and 2002–2003 eruptions, persistently low values of both parameters suggest that no new gas-rich magma was accumulating at shallow depth (b5 km) within Etna's central conduit, whereas very high SO2 sin-eruptive fluxes during the two eruptions indicated sudden decompression of an un-degassed magma rising along newly-formed eccentric conduits. In November 2003, soil CO2 data indicate migration of gas-rich magma from deep (>10 km) to shallow (b5 km) portions of the feeding conduits, preceded by an increase in crater SO2 fluxes. A similar behavior was observed also during and after the following 2004–2005 eruption. This degassing style matches a period of increased structural instability of the volcanic edifice caused by acceleration of spreading that affected both its eastern and southern flanks. Spreading could have triggered progressively deeper depressurization in the central conduit, inducing release of the more soluble gas (SO2) first, and then of CO2, contrary to what was observed before the 2001 eruption. This suggests that the edifice has depressurized, promoting ascent of fresh-magma and increasing permeability favouring release of CO2 flux. By integrating geochemical and structural data, previous degassing models developed at Mt. Etna have been updated to advance the understanding of eruptive events that occurred in recent years. Mon, 31 Dec 2012 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8101 2012-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8084 Title: Applicability of the Decision Matrix of North Eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System to the Italian tsunamis Authors: Tinti, S.; Dipartimento di Fisica, Settore di Geofisica, Universit`a di Bologna, Bologna, Italy; Graziani, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Brizuela, B.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Maramai, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Gallazzi, S.; Dipartimento di Fisica, Settore di Geofisica, Universit`a di Bologna, Bologna, Italy Abstract: After the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami catastrophe, UNESCO through the IOC (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission) sponsored the establishment of Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICG) with the aim to devise and implement Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) in all the oceans exposed to tsunamis, in addition to the one already in operation in the Pacific (PTWS). In this context, since 2005 efforts started for the establishment of TWSs in the Indian Ocean (IOTWS), in the Caribbean area (CARIBE EWS) and in the North Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAMTWS). In this paper we focus on a specific tool that was first introduced in the PTWS routine operations, i.e. the Decision Matrix (DM). This is an easy-to-use table establishing a link between the main parameters of an earthquake and the possible ensuing tsunami in order to make quick decision on the type of alert bulletins that a Tsunami Warning Center launches to its recipients. In the process of implementation of a regional TWS for the NEAM area, two distinct DMs were recently proposed by the ICG/NEAMTWS, one for the Atlantic and the other for the entire Mediterranean area. This work applies the Mediterranean NEAMTWS DM to the earthquakes recorded in Italy and compares the action predicted by the DM vs. the action that should be appropriate in view of the observed tsunami characteristics with the aim to establish how good the performance of the Italian TWS will be when it uses the DM for future events. To this purpose, we make use of the parametric catalogue of the Italian earthquakes (CPTI04) compiled in 2004 and the most recent compilation of the Italian tsunami, based on the Italian Tsunami Catalogue of 2004 and the subsequent revisions. In order to better compare the TWS actions we have identified four different kinds of action coding them from 0 to 3 according to the tsunami severity and have further considered three different distance ranges where these actions apply, that is local, regional and basin-wide, that refer to the distance of the message recipients from the tsunami source. The result of our analysis is that the actions prescribed by the DM are adequate only in 45%-55% of the cases, overestimations are about 37% and underestimations are the rest. As a whole, the predictive ability of the DM is not satisfactory, which implies that recipients have the difficult task to manage bulletins carrying a great deal of uncertainty and on the other hand also suggests that strategies to improve the DM or to go beyond the DM need to be found. Thu, 29 Mar 2012 22:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8084 2012-03-29T22:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8079 Title: Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) Authors: Cappello, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Neri, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Acocella, V.; Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, Università RomaTre, Rome, Italy; Gallo, G.; Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica, Università di Catania, Catania, Italy; Vicari, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Del Negro, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia Abstract: We produce a spatial probability map of vent opening (susceptibility map) at Etna, using a statistical analysis of structural features of flank eruptions of the last 2 ky. We exploit a detailed knowledge of the volcano structures, including the modalities of shallow magma transfer deriving from dike and dike-fed fissure eruptions analysis on historical eruptions. Assuming the location of future vents will have the same causal factors as the past eruptions, we converted the geological and structural data in distinct and weighted probability density functions, which were included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to obtain the susceptibility map. The highest probability of new eruptive vents opening falls within a N-S aligned area passing through the Summit Craters down to about 2,000 ma.s.l. on the southern flank. Other zones of high probability follow the North-East, East-North-East, West, and South Rifts, the latter reaching low altitudes (∼400 m). Less susceptible areas are found around the faults cutting the upper portions of Etna, including the western portion of the Pernicana fault and the northern extent of the Ragalna fault. This structuralbased susceptibility map is a crucial step in forecasting lava flow hazards at Etna, providing a support tool for decision makers. Sat, 01 Sep 2012 22:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8079 2012-09-01T22:00:00Z