http://hdl.handle.net/2122/161 Mon, 20 May 2013 20:54:40 GMT 2013-05-20T20:54:40Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8698 Title: Influence of volcanic activity on the quality of water collected in roof water catchment systems at Stromboli Island (Italy) Authors: Madonia, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Palermo, Palermo, Italia; Cangemi, M.; Dip. DiSTeM, Università di Palermo; Bellomo, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Palermo, Palermo, Italia; D'Alessandro, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Palermo, Palermo, Italia Abstract: With the aim of detailing the interaction between volcanic emissions and water harvesting by Roof Water Catchment Systems (RWCSs), the present work illustrates the results of a study carried out at Stromboli Island, a small but densely populated active volcanic area in the South of Italy. Concentrations of major and trace elements determined in RWCS waters and sediments revealed clear clues of a contamination with gases and suspended particles of volcanic origin, even if the values of those contaminants considered by the World Health Organization as dangerous for human health are always belowtheMaximumAdmitted Concentration (MAC). In particular, cistern water showed a composition similar to local coastal rainwater, with dissolved ions related not only to sea aerosol but also to volcanic gases and ash leaching,with a secondary enrichment in Ca ions due to the interactionwith the limewashed surfaces of both roofs and cisternwalls. The simulation of the potential increase in dissolved chemical species due to volcanic ash deposition on the water catchment surfaces indicates the possible exceedance of the MAC for several species. The symptoms of fluorosis affecting elderly people who were young at the time of the 1930–40 volcanic crisis is a clue of a possible volcanogenic fluorine contamination. On the other way, the simulation of the digestion process on solid volcanogenic particulate ingested with drinkingwater highlighted a potential dramatic increase (orders of magnitudes) of dangerous element concentrations in stomach fluids above theirMACs. Despite the evidence of potential health risks induced by volcanic activity, no anamnesic evidence of related pathologies has been found among Stromboli population. This apparent discrepancy is solved taking into account the positive feedback among the good practice in maintaining clean conditions in the harvested waters and the prevalent fallout of volcanogenic ashes away from the main inhabited areas, favoured by the morphological setting of the island and its wind regime. Mon, 31 Dec 2012 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8698 2012-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8676 Title: Intermediate-field hydrogeological response induced by L'Aquila earthquake: the Acque Albule hydrothermal system (Central Italy) Authors: La Vigna, F.; Università degli Studi Roma Tre; Carucci, V.; Università degli Sudi dell'Aquila; Mariani, I.; Università degli Studi Roma Tre; Minelli, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Pascale, F.; Università degli Studi Roma Tre; Mattei, M.; Università degli Studi Roma Tre; Mazza, R.; Università degli Studi Roma Tre; Tallini, M.; Università degli Sudi dell'Aquila Abstract: The intermediate-field hydrological response to the 6th April 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) has been studied using groundwater level data that were recorded by six piezometers in the Acque Albule Basin (Tivoli travertine quarry area) and in the Cornicolani Mountains (Pozzo del Merro shaft). The hydrogeological setting of the Tivoli area is characterised by two superimposed aquifers: a deep aquifer in carbonate and a shallow aquifer in travertine. At the time of the L’Aquila earthquake, the groundwater level at five piezometers located in the travertine quarry area began to decrease, while the water level slightly increased in the Pozzo del Merro karst lake that is located in the carbonate aquifer. To explain these variations, a possible conceptual model is proposed that assumes that ground - water-level variations are caused by a change in aquifer permeability principally due to the dynamic stress associated with the passing of the earthquake’s seismic waves. Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8676 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8650 Title: Different types of sediment gravity flows detected in the Var submarine canyon (northwestern Mediterranean Sea) Authors: Khripounoff, A.; Ifremer; Crassous, P.; Ifremer; Lo Bue, N.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Dennielou, B.; Ifremer; Silva Jacinto, R.; Ifremer Abstract: Current velocities and vertical sediment fluxes in the Var submarine canyon were assessed at three stations respectively at 800 m, 1200 m and 1800 m depth, using moorings deployed for 4 months during winter 2008–2009. During this period, we observed three major sediment gravity flows, all characterized by sudden increases in current velocity that lasted 2–5 h and by downward particle fluxes. Each gravity flow, described using a high frequency current meter and two Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (75 and 300 kHz ADCP) showed distinctive features. The first event, triggered during a flood of the Var River, was determined to be a hyperpycnal current with a large vertical extent (>100 m high) and relatively low velocity (40 cm s 1). The second event, observed after a Var River flood, was more energetic with a maximum horizontal current peak of 60 cm s 1 but with a low vertical extent (30 m high). This event was considered to be a turbidity landslide. The third was the result of a local canyon wall failure. It was characterized by a speed of >85 cm s 1. These peaks of current speed were associated with large clouds of material that transported sediment along the canyon and reached up to 200 g m 2 d 1 of sediment (>1 g m 2 d 1 of organic carbon). Our measurements in the Var canyon show the important role of gravity flows transporting particulate matter to the deep-sea floor. These large inputs of sediment and organic carbon may have a significant impact on deep-sea carbon storage in the Mediterranean Sea. Tue, 18 Sep 2012 22:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8650 2012-09-18T22:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8581 Title: Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective Authors: Alessandri, A.; ENEA; Fogli, P. G.; CMCC; Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Zeng, N.; University of Mariland Abstract: Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C). We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout the 21C. Two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of the hydrological cycle in the middle and end- 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves a larger increase in global precipitation in the last decades of the 21C. Our energy/water budget analysis shows that this behavior is ultimately due to a bifurcation in the Bowen ratio change between the two scenarios. This work warns that mitigation policies that promote aerosol abatement, may lead to an unexpected stronger intensification of the hydrological cycle and associated changes that may last for decades after global warming is effectively mitigated. On the other hand, it is also suggested that predictable components of the radiative forcing by aerosols may have the potential to effectively contribute to the decadal-scale predictability of changes in the hydrological strength. Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8581 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8459 Title: NEMO-SN1 (Western Ionian Sea, off Eastern Sicily): Example of architecture of a cabled observatory Authors: Favali, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Azzarone, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Badiali, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia; Beranzoli, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Cianchini, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Qamili, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; De Caro, M.G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; De Santis, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Doumaz, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia; Embriaco, D.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Falcone, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Giovanetti, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Lo Bue, N.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Marinaro, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Monna, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Montuori, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Sgroi, T.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Vinci, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia; NEMO Collaboration, NEMO Collaboration; INFN - Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Italy; Chierici, F.; CNR-ISMAR - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto delle Scienze Marine; Pignagnoli, L.; CNR-ISMAR - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto delle Scienze Marine; Zitellini, N.; CNR-ISMAR - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto delle Scienze Marine; Bruni, F.; Tecnomare S.p.A, Italy; Gasparoni, F.; Tecnomare S.p.A, Italy Abstract: NEMO-SN1, located in the central Mediterranean Sea, Western Ionian Sea, off Eastern Sicily Island (Southern Italy) at 2100 m water depth, 25 km from the harbour of the city of Catania, is a prototype of a cabled deep-sea multiparameter observatory and the first operating with real-time data transmission in Europe since 2005. NEMO-SN1 is also the first-established node of EMSO (European Multidisciplinary Seafloor Observatory, http://emso-eu.org), one of the incoming European large-scale research infrastructure included since 2006 in the Roadmap of the ESFRI (European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures, http://cordis.europa.eu/esfri/roadmap.htm), which will specifically address long-term monitoring of environmental processes related to Marine Ecosystems, Climate Change and Geo-hazards. NEMO-SN1 has been deployed and developed over the last decade thanks to Italian resources and to the EC project ESONET-NoE (European Seas Observatory NETwork - Network of Excellence, 2007-2011) that funded the LIDO-DM (Listening to the Deep Ocean - Demonstration Mission) and a technological interoperability test (http://www.esonet-emso.org/esonet-noe/). NEMO-SN1 is performing geophysical and environmental long-term monitoring by acquiring seismological, geomagnetic, gravimetric, accelerometric, physico-oceanographic, hydro-acoustic, bioacoustic measurements specifically related to earthquakes and tsunamis generation and ambient noise characterisation in term of marine mammal sounds, environmental and anthropogenic sources. A further main feature of NEMO-SN1 is to be an important test-site for the construction of KM3NeT (Kilometre-Cube Underwater Neutrino Telescope, http://www.km3net.org/), another large-scale research infrastructure included in the ESFRI Roadmap constituted by a large volume neutrino telescope. The description of the observatory and the most recent data acquired will be presented and framed in the general objectives of EMSO. Mon, 04 Apr 2011 22:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8459 2011-04-04T22:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8386 Title: Tracking bottom waters in the Southern Adriatic Sea applying seismic oceanography techniques Authors: Carniel, S.; CNR-ISMAR; Bergamasco, A.; CNR-ISMAR; Book, J. W.; NRL; Hobbs, R. W.; Univ. of Durham; Sclavo, M.; CNR-ISMAR Abstract: We present the first results from the Seismic Oceanography (SO) cruise ADRIASEISMIC where we successfully imaged thermohaline fine structures in the shallow water environment (50-150 m) of the southern Adriatic Sea during March 2009 using a compact two GI-gun seismic source. The SO observations are complemented with traditional oceanographic and micro-structure measurements and show that SO can operate over almost the entire water column except (in our experimental layout) for the uppermost 50 m. After processing to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio, the seismic reflection data have a vertical resolution of ~10 m and a horizontal resolution of ~100 m and provide a laterally continuous map of significant thermohaline boundaries that cannot be achieved with conventional physical oceanography measurements alone. ADRIASEISMIC specifically targeted structures in shallow waters, namely along the western margin of the southern Adriatic Sea, between the Gargano peninsula and the Bari canyon, and imaged the Northern Adriatic Dense Water (NAdDW), a bounded cold and relatively dense water mass flowing from the northern Adriatic Sea. The seismic data acquired in Bari canyon and offshore of the Gargano promontory show many regions of strongly reflecting shallow structures, and the incorporation of XBTs measurements with these data demonstrate that they can be interpreted in terms of temperature structures and gradients. In the Gargano region several warm water intrusive structures are mapped along with the offshore transitional edge of cold waters of strong NAdDW influence. In Bari Canyon, waters with NAdDW influence are further mapped extending over the shelf and off the slope into a 5 km long tongue extending offshore between depths of 200-300 m. More generally, even though neither cascading nor open-ocean deep convection process appeared to be evident during March 2009, the SO approach was able to map details of thermal features not resolved by even closely spaced XBT measurements. Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8386 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8372 Title: Integrated Numerical Models in Coastal Areas: An Example of Their Application in the North Adriatic Sea Authors: Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro; Tondello, Massimo; Ciavola, Paolo Editors: Oddo, P Abstract: Recent decades have witnessed considerable developments in the field of integrated numerical models used for simulating dynamic processes in coastal areas, that can now provide quantitative support to decision makers for questions such as erosion and coastal vulnerability. Improvements in various theoretical formulations and an on-going increase in computing power (alongside the growing availability of long-term observations and numerical output from meteorological and sea-state models) allow the implementation of high-resolution and long-term applications.However, the efficient use of these numerical tools is a function of their capacity to describe a variety of physical processes that are ‘integrated’ amongst themselves correctly. Indeed, from the air-sea interface to the turbulent mixing of water masses and the water-sediment interaction, integrated numerical modelling has to face a series of scientific and practical challenges still open. Examples include the non-linear interaction of waves and currents, the problem of turbulence, the modelling of resuspension and sediment-transport processes, the role of longperiod waves in generating beach and dune erosion. Dealing with these using numerical models is necessary for a variety of reasons, from protecting the coast to search-and-rescue activities and support for marine construction work of all types. Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8372 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8334 Title: NEMO-SN1 Abyssal Cabled Observatory in the Western Ionian Sea Authors: Favali, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia; Chierici, F.; Istituto di Radio Astronomia-INAF; Marinaro, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Giovanetti, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Azzarone, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Beranzoli, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; De Santis, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Embriaco, D.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Monna, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Lo Bue, N.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Sgroi, T.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Cianchini, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Badiali, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia; Qamili, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; De Caro, M. G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Falcone, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Montuori, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Frugoni, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; NEMO Collaboration; INFN - Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; Pignagnoli, L.; CNR-ISMAR - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Scienze Marine, Italy; Zitellini, N.; CNR-ISMAR - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Scienze Marine, Italy; Federico, B.; Bruni, F.; Tecnomare S.p.A, Italy; Gasparoni, F.; Tecnomare S.p.A, Italy; Pavan, G.; CIBRA, Università di Pavia, Italy Abstract: The “NEutrino Mediterranean Observatory - Submarine Network 1” (NEMO-SN1) seafloor observatory is located in the central Mediterranean Sea, Western Ionian Sea, off Eastern Sicily (Southern Italy) at 2100 m water depth, 25 km from the harbour of the city of Catania. It is a prototype of a cabled deep-sea multiparameter observatory and the first one operating with real-time data transmission in Europe since 2005. NEMO-SN1 is also the first-established node of the “European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatory” (EMSO, http://www.emso-eu.org), one of the incoming European large-scale research infrastructures included in the Roadmap of the “European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures” (ESFRI, http://cordis.europa.eu/esfri/roadmap.htm) since 2006. EMSO will specifically address long-term monitoring of environmental processes related to Marine Ecosystems, Climate Change and Geo-hazards. NEMO-SN1 has been deployed and developed over the last decade thanks to Italian funding and to the EC project “European Seas Observatory NETwork - Network of Excellence” (ESONET-NoE, 2007-2011) that funded the “Listening to the Deep Ocean - Demonstration Mission” (LIDO-DM) and a technological interoperability test (http://www.esonet-emso.org/). NEMOSN1 is performing geophysical and environmental long-term monitoring by acquiring seismological, geomagnetic, gravimetric, accelerometric, physico-oceanographic, hydroacoustic, bio-acoustic measurements. Scientific objectives include studying seismic signals, tsunami generation and warnings, its hydroacoustic precursors, and ambient noise characterisation in terms of marine mammal sounds, environmental and anthropogenic sources. NEMO-SN1 is also an important test-site for the construction of the “Kilometre-Cube Underwater Neutrino Telescope” (KM3NeT, http://www.km3net.org/), another large-scale research infrastructure included in the ESFRI Roadmap based on a large volume neutrino telescope. The description of the observatory and its most recent implementations is presented. On 9th June, 2012 NEMO-SN1 was successfully deployed and is working in real-time. Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8334 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8300 Title: High-resolution shallow seismic tomography of a hydrothermal area: application to the Solfatara, Pozzuoli Authors: Letort, J.; ISTERRE, Institut des Sciences de la Terre, CNRS UMR 5275, Universit´e Grenoble 1, France.; Roux, P.; ISTERRE, Institut des Sciences de la Terre, CNRS UMR 5275, Universit´e Grenoble 1, France.; Vandemeulebrouck, J.; ISTERRE, Institut des Sciences de la Terre, CNRS UMR 5275, Université de Savoie, Chamb´ery, France; Coutant, O.; ISTERRE, Institut des Sciences de la Terre, CNRS UMR 5275, Universit´e Grenoble 1, France.; Cros, E.; ISTERRE, Institut des Sciences de la Terre, CNRS UMR 5275, Universit´e de Savoie, Chamb´ery, France; Wathelet, M.; Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Universit`a di Perugia, Perugia, Italy; Cardellini, C.; Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Universit`a di Perugia, Perugia, Italy; Avino, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia Abstract: The Solfatara is one of the major volcanoes of the Phlegrean Fields (Campi Flegrei) volcanic complex, and it is located in a densely populated area a few kilometres west of the city of Naples. It is an active resurgent caldera that has been characterized by a rich history of surface–ground deformation and soil diffuse degassing and fumarolic emissions, which are indications of the top of a hydrothermal plume. A seismic survey was completed in May 2009 for the characterization of the main subsurface features of the Solfatara. Using the complete data set, we have carried out surface wave inversion with high spatial resolution. A classical minimization of a least-squares objective function was first computed to retrieve the dispersion curves of the surface waves. Then, the fitting procedure between the data and a three-sedimentlayer forward model was carried out (to a depth of 7 m), using an improved version of the neighbourhood algorithm. The inversion results indicate a NE-SW fault, which is not visible at the surface. This was confirmed by a temperature survey conducted in 2010. A passive seismic experiment localized the ambient noise sources that correlate well with the areas of high CO2 flux and high soil temperatures. Finally, considering that the intrinsic attenuation is proportional to the frequency, a centroid analysis provides an overview of the attenuation of the seismic waves, which is closely linked to the petrophysical properties of the rock. These different approaches that merge complete active and passive seismic data with soil temperature and CO2 flux maps confirm the presence of the hydrothermal system plume. Some properties of the top of the plume are indicated and localized. Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8300 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8297 Title: Early signals of new volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera? Insights from geochemical data and physical simulations Authors: Chiodini, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia; Caliro, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia; De Martino, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia; Avino, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia; Gherardi, F.; Istituto di Geoscienze e Georisorse, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Via Moruzzi, 1, 56124 Pisa, Italy Abstract: For the fi rst time a physical model, constrained by monitoring data, is used to derive a quantitative estimate of the evolution in time of magmatic gases that enter a hydrothermal system of an active volcano. The site is Campi Flegrei (west of Naples, in Italy), a caldera that had a large ground infl ation in 1982–1984 followed by 20 yr of subsidence. More recently the behavior of the system has changed: the magmatic component of fumaroles has increased, swarms of earthquakes are more frequent, and the ground has started a general uplifting trend, indicating that the hydrothermal system undergoes repeated injections of magmatic fl uid. Physical simulations of the process show that total injected fl uid masses are the same order of magnitude as those emitted during small to medium size volcanic eruptions, and their cumulative curve highlights a current period of increasing activity. Gas emission studies coupled with physical modeling can be extremely effective in predicting magmatic evolution and eruptive activity at volcanoes. Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8297 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z