http://hdl.handle.net/2122/155 Thu, 23 May 2013 16:06:36 GMT 2013-05-23T16:06:36Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8588 Title: Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system Authors: Pohlmann, H.; Max-Planck-Institut fu ̈r Meteorologie,; Smith, D. M.; Met Office Hadley Centre; Balmaseda, M. A.; ECMWF; Keenlyside, N. S.; Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre, University of Bergen; Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Matei, D.; Max-Planck-Institut fu ̈r Meteorologie,; Muller, W. A.; Max-Planck-Institut fu ̈r Meteorologie,; Rogel, P.; CERFACS Abstract: Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of obser- vations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal corre- lates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3–6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions. Mon, 31 Dec 2012 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8588 2012-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8195 Title: Impacts of natural and anthropogenic climate variations on North Pacific plankton in an Earth System Model Authors: Patara, L.; CMCC; Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Abstract: The impacts of natural atmospheric variability and anthropogenic climate change on the spatial distribution, seasonality, structure, and productivity of North Pacific plankton groups are investigated by means of an Earth System Model (ESM) that contains a plankton model with variable stoichiometry. The ESM is forced with observed greenhouse gases for the 20th century and with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B Emission Scenario for the 21st century. The impacts of the two main modes of variability – connected with the Aleutian Low (AL) strength and with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) – are considered. When the AL is strong, primary productivity and chlorophyll concentrations are higher in the central Pacific, the seasonality of plankton is enhanced, and the classical grazing chain is stimulated, whereas in the Alaskan Gyre the model simulates a chlorophyll decrease and a shift toward smaller phytoplankton species. A stronger NPO increases productivity and chlorophyll concentration at ∼45°N. In the anthropogenic climate change scenario, simulated sea surface temperature is 4 °C higher with respect to contemporary conditions, leading to reduced mixing and nutrient supply at middle-subpolar latitudes. The seasonal phytoplankton bloom is reduced and occurs one month earlier, the flow of carbon to the microbial loop is enhanced, and phytoplanktonic stoichiometry is nutrient-depleted. Primary productivity is enhanced at subpolar latitudes, due to increased ice-free regions and possibly to temperature-related photosynthesis stimulation. This study highlights that natural climate variability may act alternatively to strengthen or to weaken the human-induced impacts, and that in the next decades it will be difficult to distinguish between internal and external climate forcing on North Pacific plankton groups. Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8195 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8193 Title: Global response to solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton in a coupled climate model Authors: Patara, L.; CMCC; Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Fogli, P. G.; CMCC; Manzini, E.; MPI Abstract: The global climate response to solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton is investigated by performing multi-century simulations with a coupled ocean–atmosphere-biogeochemistry model. The absorption of solar radiation by phytoplankton increases radiative heating in the near-surface ocean and raises sea surface temperature (SST) by overall ~0.5°C. The resulting increase in evaporation enhances specific atmospheric humidity by 2–5%, thereby increasing the Earth’s greenhouse effect and the atmospheric temperatures. The Hadley Cell exhibits a weakening and poleward expansion, therefore reducing cloudiness at subtropical-middle latitudes and increasing it at tropical latitudes except near the Equator. Higher SST at polar latitudes reduces sea ice cover and albedo, thereby increasing the high-latitude ocean absorption of solar radiation. Changes in the atmospheric baroclinicity cause a poleward intensification of mid-latitude westerly winds in both hemispheres. As a result, the North Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation extends more northward, and the equatorward Ekman transport is enhanced in the Southern Ocean. The combination of local and dynamical processes decreases upper-ocean heat content in the Tropics and in the subpolar Southern Ocean, and increases it at middle latitudes. This study highlights the relevance of coupled ocean–atmosphere processes in the global climate response to phytoplankton solar absorption. Given that simulated impacts of phytoplankton on physical climate are within the range of natural climate variability, this study suggests the importance of phytoplankton as an internal constituent of the Earth’s climate and its potential role in participating in its long-term climate adjustments. Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8193 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7807 Title: Ocean ensemble forecasting. Part II: Mediterranean Forecast System response Authors: Pinardi, N.; Bonazzi, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Dobricic, S.; Milliff, R. F.; Wikle, C. K.; Berliner, L. M. Abstract: This article analyzes the ocean forecast response to surface vector wind (SVW) distributions generated by a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) developed in Part I of this series. A new method for ocean ensemble forecasting (OEF), the socalled BHM-SVW-OEF, is described. BHM-SVW realizations are used to produce and force perturbations in the ocean state during 14 day analysis and 10 day forecast cycles of the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). The BHM-SVW-OEF ocean response spread is amplified at the mesoscales and in the pycnocline of the eddy field. The new method is compared with an ensemble response forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EEPS) surface winds, and with an ensemble forecast started from perturbed initial conditions derived froman ad hoc thermocline intensified random perturbation (TIRP) method. The EEPS-OEF shows spread on basin scales while the TIRP-OEF response is mesoscale-intensified as in the BHM-SVW-OEF response. TIRP-OEF perturbations fill more of the MFS domain, while the BHM-SVW-OEF perturbations are more location-specific, concentrating ensemble spread at the sites where the ocean-model response to uncertainty in the surface wind forcing is largest. Fri, 31 Dec 2010 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7807 2010-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7629 Title: Marine biogeochemical responses to the North Atlantic Oscillation in a coupled climate model Authors: Patara, L.; CMCC; Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Visbeck, M.; IFM-Kiel; Krahmann, G.; IFM-Kiel; Vichi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Abstract: In this study a coupled ocean‐atmosphere model containing interactive marine biogeochemistry is used to analyze interannual, lagged, and decadal marine biogeochemical responses to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of North Atlantic atmospheric variability. The coupled model adequately reproduces present‐day climatologies and NAO atmospheric variability. It is shown that marine biogeochemical responses to the NAO are governed by different mechanisms according to the time scale considered. On interannual time scales, local changes in vertical mixing, caused by modifications in air‐sea heat, freshwater, and momentum fluxes, are most relevant in influencing phytoplankton growth through light and nutrient limitation mechanisms. At subpolar latitudes, deeper mixing occurring during positive NAO winters causes a slight decrease in late winter chlorophyll concentration due to light limitation and a 10%–20% increase in spring chlorophyll concentration due to higher nutrient availability. The lagged response of physical and biogeochemical properties to a high NAO winter shows some memory in the following 2 years. In particular, subsurface nutrient anomalies generated by local changes in mixing near the American coast are advected along the North Atlantic Current, where they are suggested to affect downstream chlorophyll concentration with 1 year lag. On decadal time scales, local and remote mechanisms act contemporaneously in shaping the decadal biogeochemical response to the NAO. The slow circulation adjustment, in response to NAO wind stress curl anomalies, causes a basin redistribution of heat, freshwater, and biogeochemical properties which, in turn, modifies the spatial structure of the subpolar chlorophyll bloom. Fri, 31 Dec 2010 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7629 2010-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7588 Title: Assimilating Along-Track Altimetric Observations through Local Hydrostatic Adjustment in a Global Ocean Variational Assimilation System Authors: Storto, A.; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; Dobricic, S.; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Di Pietro, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Abstract: A global ocean three-dimensional variational data assimilation system was developed with the aim of assimilating along-track sea level anomaly observations, along with in situ observations from bathythermographs and conventional sea stations. All the available altimetric data within the period October 1992–January 2006 were used in this study. The sea level corrections were covariated with vertical profiles of temperature and salinity according to the bivariate definition of the background-error vertical covariances. Sea level anomaly observational error variance was carefully defined as a sum of instrumental, representativeness, observation operator, and mean dynamic topography error variances. The mean dynamic topography was computed from the model long-term mean sea surface height and adjusted through an optimal interpolation scheme to account for observation minus first-guess biases. Results show that the assimilation of sea level anomaly observations improves the model sea surface height skill scores as well as the subsurface temperature and salinity fields. Furthermore, the estimate of the tropical and subtropical surface circulation is clearly improved after assimilating altimetric data. Nonnegligible impacts of the mean dynamic topography used have also been found: compared to a gravimeter-based mean dynamic topography the use of the mean dynamic topography discussed in this paper improves both the consistency with sea level anomaly observations and the verification skill scores of temperature and salinity in the tropical regions. Furthermore, the use of a mean dynamic topography computed from the model long-term sea surface height mean without observation adjustments results in worsened verification skill scores and highlights the benefits of the current approach for deriving the mean dynamic topography. Mon, 28 Feb 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7588 2011-02-28T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7562 Title: Global ocean re-analyses for climate applications Authors: Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Di Pietro, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Storto, A.; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Abstract: One of the main objectives of the global ocean modelling activities at Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) is the production of global ocean re-analyses over multidecadal periods to reconstruct the state of the ocean and the large scale cir- culation over the recent past. The re-analyses are used for climate applications and for the assessment of the benefits of assimilating ocean observations on seasonal and longer predictions. Here we present the main characteristics of an optimal interpola- tion based assimilation system used to produce a set of global ocean re-analyses validated against a set of high quality in situ observa- tions and independent data. Differences among the experiments of the set are analyzed in terms of improvements in the method used to assimilate the data and the quality of observations them- selves. For example, the integrated ocean heat content, which can be taken as an indicator of climate changes, is examined to detect possible sources of uncertainty of its long-term changes. Global and basin scale upper ocean heat content exhibits warming trends over the last few decades that still depend in a significant way on the assimilated observations and the formulation of the background covariances. However, all the re-analyses show a global warming trend of the oceanic uppermost 700 m over the last five decades that falls within the range of the most recent observation-based estimates. The largest discrepancies between our estimates and observational based ones are confined in the upwelling regions of the PacificandAtlanticOceans.Finally,theresultsshow that the climatological heat and salt transports as a function of latitude also fall within the range of the estimates based on observations and atmospheric re-analyses. Wed, 31 Aug 2011 22:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7562 2011-08-31T22:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7104 Title: Societal need for improved understanding of climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and geo-hazard warning drive development of ocean observatories in European Seas Authors: Ruhl, H. A.; NOCS; Andrè, M.; UPC; Beranzoli, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Çagatay, M. N.; ITU; Colaço, A.; Univ. Azores; Cannat, M.; IPGP; Dañobeitia, J. J.; CSIC-UTM; Favali, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Géli, L.; IFREMER; Gillooly, M.; IMI; Greinert, J.; NIOZ; Hall, P. O. J.; Univ. Goteborg; Huber, R.; MARUM; Karstensen, J.; Univ. Kiel; Lampitt, R. S.; NOCS; Larkin, K. E.; NOCS; Lykousis, V.; HCMR; Mienert, J.; Univ. Tromsø; Miranda, J. M.; Univ. Lisboa; Person, R.; IFREMER; Priede, I. G.; Univ. Aberdeen; Puillat, I.; IFREMER; Thomsen, L.; Jacobs Univ. Bremen; Waldmann, C.; MARUM Abstract: Society’s needs for a network of in situ ocean observing systems cross many areas of earth and marine science. Here we review the science themes that benefit from data supplied from ocean observatories. Understanding from existing studies is fragmented to the extent that it lacks the coherent long-term monitoring needed to address questions at the scales essential to understand climate change and improve geo-hazard early warning. Data sets from the deep sea are particularly rare with long-term data available from only a few locations worldwide. These science areas have impacts on societal health and well-being and our awareness of ocean function in a shifting climate. Substantial efforts are underway to realise a network of open-ocean observatories around European Seas that will operate over multiple decades. Some systems are already collecting high-resolution data from surface, water column, seafloor, and sub-seafloor sensors linked to shore by satellite or cable connection in real or near-real time, along with samples and other data collected in a delayed mode. We expect that such observatories will contribute to answering major ocean science questions including: How can monitoring of factors such as seismic activity, pore fluid chemistry and pressure, and gas hydrate stability improve seismic, slope failure, and tsunami warning? What aspects of physical oceanography, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems will be most sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic change? What are natural versus anthropogenic changes? Most fundamentally, how are marine processes that occur at differing scales related? The development of ocean observatories provides a substantial opportunity for ocean science to evolve in Europe. Here we also describe some basic attributes of network design. Observatory networks provide the means to coordinate and integrate the collection of standardised data capable of bridging measurement scales across a dispersed area in European Seas adding needed certainty to estimates of future oceanic conditions. Observatory data can be analysed along with other data such as those from satellites, drifting floats, autonomous underwater vehicles, model analysis, and the known distribution and abundances of marine fauna in order to address some of the questions posed above. Standardised methods for information management are also becoming established to ensure better accessibility and traceability of these data sets and ultimately to increase their use for societal benefit. The connection of ocean observatory effort into larger frameworks including the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) is integral to its success. It is in a greater integrated framework that the full potential of the component systems will be realised. Fri, 31 Dec 2010 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7104 2010-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7063 Title: Tropical Pacific-North Pacific teleconnection in a coupled GCM: Remote and local effects Authors: Cherchi, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Abstract: The connection between Tropical Pacific and North Pacific variability is investigated in a state-of-the art coupled ocean-atmosphere model, comparing two 20th century simulations at T30 and T106 atmospheric horizontal resolutions. Despite a better simulation of the frequency and the spatial distribution of the Tropical Pacific anomalies associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the high-resolution experiment, the response in the North Pacific is scarcely different from the low-resolution experiment where the ENSO variability is weaker and at higher than observed frequency. In the North Pacific, the response of surface atmospheric fields to the variability in the Tropical Pacific appears to be affected by local coupling processes significantly different in the two experiments. The coupling between sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific as well as the influence of the Tropical Pacific SST has been measured here by means of the ‘coupled manifold’ technique. In the low-resolution case the SLP variances linked to the fraction of North Pacific SST not influenced by the Tropical Pacific are weak suggesting that the remote influence is strong, consistently with the observations. On the contrary, in the high-resolution experiment the fractions and the patterns of the SLP variances due to the Tropical Pacific SST and those linked to the North Pacific SST are comparable. In the latter case, model systematic errors in the northwestern Pacific influences the local coupling processes thus triggering the remote response. We conclude that an increased atmospheric horizontal resolution does not reduce the coupled model systematic errors in the representation of the teleconnection between the North and the Tropical Pacific and that the validation of coupled models has to consider both remote and local processes. Sat, 31 Dec 2011 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7063 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6857 Title: Stratigraphic evidence for a “pluvial phase” between ca 8200–7100 ka from Renella cave (Central Italy) Authors: Zhornyak, L. V.; Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy; Zanchetta, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy; Drysdale, R. N.; Department of Resource Management and Geography, University of Melbourne, Australia; Hellstrom, J. C.; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Isola, I.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia; Regattieri, E.; Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy; Piccini, L.; Istituto di Geoscienze e Georisorse - CNR, Pisa, Italy; Baneschi, I.; Istituto di Geoscienze e Georisorse - CNR, Pisa, Italy; Couchoud, I.; Laboratoire EDYTEM, UFR CISM, Université de Savoie, Le Bourget du Lac, France Abstract: A stratigraphic and chronological study of the upper level of Renella Cave (Apuan Alps, Central Italy) reveals that two episodes of flowstone accumulation bracket a thick clastic layer deposited between ca 8.2 and 7.1 ka. This layer, which represents a period of enhanced cave flooding, is substantially in phase with an interval of depleted oxygen isotope values previously recorded in a stalagmite from nearby Corchia Cave, interpreted to have resulted from an increase in local precipitation. These data confirm that during this period of time the region experienced relatively wetter conditions, including an increase in high-magnitude events capable of invading the higher passages of Renella Cave. The timing of the clastic phase occurred when the Eastern Mediterranean experienced deposition of sapropel layer S1, which is thought to reflect the stagnation of sea water produced largely by enhanced flood activity along the Nile in response to increased monsoon intensity in northern equatorial Africa. Recent estimates suggest that S1 may have lasted from ca 10.8 to ca 6.1 ka cal BP. Combined evidence from Renella and Corchia Cave indicates that the period corresponding to the wettest phase in the Apuan Alps was much shorter than this, and suggests that there is no straightforward connection between increased advection of water vapour from the Atlantic between 8.2 and 7.1 ka, as recorded in the Corchia and Renella records, and monsoon-driven enhancement of Nile discharge and S1 deposition in the eastern Mediterranean. Thu, 31 Dec 2009 23:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6857 2009-12-31T23:00:00Z