http://hdl.handle.net/2122/294 2013-05-21T22:53:11Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8574 Title: Rapporto sulle attività geofisiche, oceanografiche e di campionamento durante la crociera PANSTR12 con Nave Aretusa: Isole Eolie (Stromboli, Panarea, Salina) (2012-06-30 - 2012-07-14) Authors: Dialti, L.; Marina Militare Italiana; De Lucia, A.; Marina Militare Italiana; Marziani, F.; Marina Militare Italiana; Niccolini, A.; Marina Militare Italiana; Zeppetella, A.; Marina Militare Italiana; Di Fava, M.; Marina Militare Italiana; Guideri, M.; Istituto Idrografico della Marina; Carmisciano, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Cocchi, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Miccini, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia; Bortoluzzi, G.; CNR-ISMAR; Aliani, S.; CNR-ISMAR Abstract: All’interno della collaborazione Coordinamento Nazionale per la Geofisica Marina (CO.NA.GEM.), che riunisce i vari Istituti e organizzazioni tecnico-scientifiche italiani, si è svolta la campagna denominata PANSTR12, realizzata con Nave Aretusa della Marina Militare Italiana (MMI). PANSTR12 ha avuto come obbiettivi principali la caratterizzazione morfologica e geofisica della porzione sommersa della Sciara del Fuoco, Isola di Stromboli e la ripetizione di rilievi multibeam e magnetometrici dell’area degli isolotti di Panarea realizzati a partire dal 2002, nell’ottica di permettere analisi e valutazioni sul percorso evolutivo dei fenomeni legati all’eruzione gassosa, anche in relazione all’assetto tettonico e geodinamico dell’arco vulcanico delle Eolie. La campagna PANSTR12 è stata realizzata attraverso una proficua collaborazione tra l’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), gli Istituti di Scienze Marine (ISMAR) di Bologna (ISMAR-BO) e di La Spezia (ISMAR-SP), entrambi del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), e l’Istituto Idrografico della Marina (IIM). 2012-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8551 Title: GIS Methodology to Assess Landslide Susceptibility: Application to a River Catchment of Central Italy Authors: Leoni, G.; Consultant Geologist,; Barchiesi, F.; Roma Tre University; Catallo, F.; Roma Tre University; Dramis, F.; Roma Tre University; Fubelli, G.; Roma Tre University; Lucifora, S.; Roma Tre University; Mattei, M.; Roma Tre University; Pezzo, G.; Department of Geological Sciences, Roma Tre University; Puglisi, C.; ENEA, C.R. Casaccia Abstract: This paper illustrates a geographic information system (GIS) supported methodology for the assessment of landslide susceptibility. The methodology involves four operational steps: survey, site analysis, macro- area analysis and susceptibility analysis . The Survey includes the production (or acquisition) of a large-scale litho-technical map, a large-scale geomorphological map, a detailed inventory of past and present land- slide events, and a high resolution DTM (Digital Terrain Model. Site analysis leads to the definition of discriminating parameters (commonly, lithological and morphometric conditions necessary but not suffi- cient to trigger a landslide of a given type) and predisposing factors (conditions that worsen slope stability but are not sufficient to trigger a landslide of a given type in the absence of discriminating parameters ). The different predisposing factors are subdivided into classes, whose intervals are established by descriptive, statistical analysis of landslide inventory data. A numerical index, based on the frequency of landslide occurrence, quantifies the contribution of each class to slope instability. Macro-area analysis includes the generation of Litho-Morphometric Units (LMU) by overlaying discrimina- ting parameters , manual drawing of LMU envelopes ( macro-areas ), generation of predisposing factor maps from the spatial distribution of predisposing factors , and heuristic weighting of predisposing factor indices. Susceptibility analysis includes the generation of Homogeneous Territorial Units (HTU) by overlaying macro- areas and predisposing factor maps , and the application of a susceptibility function to the different HTU. The resulting values are normalized before the generation of the landslide susceptibility maps . The methodo- logy has been applied to the Fiumicino River catchment, located in the western side of Latium Apennine (Central Italy) between 200 and 1300 m a.s.l. and developed on Late Miocene calcarenites, sandstones with clay intercalations, and marls. The resulting landslide susceptibility maps will be employed in envi- ronmental management. They also represent the preliminary step for the assessment of landslide hazard and risk 2012-01-22T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8442 Title: A rapid method to assess fire-related debris flow hazard in the Mediterranean region: An example from Sicily (southern Italy) Authors: Bisson, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia; Favalli, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia; Fornaciai, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia; Mazzarini, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia; Isola, I.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia; Zanchetta, G.; Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy; Pareschi, M. T.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia Abstract: Increased atmospheric temperatures during the high-pressure which characterise the Mediterranean climate in the dry summer time, coupled with an increase in the intensity of storms in the following wet season over recent years, increase the risk of summer fires as well as debris flows and floods in the autumn and/or in the following years. In addition, the diffuse urbanization of Italy requires a rapid and reliable tool be available in order to obtain preliminary information, at the end of the summer season, that identifies newly fired areas that present a significant hazard to human populations. In such burned zones, soil instability may be more severe favouring debris flows which may impact on populated zones. Thus, in this paper we discuss a rapid methodology to: (i) identify burned areas using band ratio's using multitemporal LANDSAT ETM images; (ii) evaluate the potential of the burned areas as the source of debris flows based on morphometric parameters (slope and hill slope curvature); (iii) evaluate the structures, such as houses and roads, exposed to potential damage by debris flows. Hazardous areas were evaluated using a stochastical model coupled with an empirical relationship which accounts for the mobility of the debris flows. The methodology provides a classification of the most “dangerous” burned areas and the potentially maximum inundated downslope areas. This has been applied to Sicily for the period autumn 2001–autumn 2002. The total burned area was 76.37 km2. According to the classification proposed 6.4% of the burned areas were consider of very high to high hazard potential, 54.4% of medium hazard and 43.2% of low hazard potential. 2005-10-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8392 Title: Assessment of the impact caused by natural disasters: simplified procedures and open problems Authors: Petrucci, Olga; CNR-IRPI Editors: Tiefenbacher, J.P. Abstract: A natural hazard is a geophysical, atmospheric or hydrological event (e.g., earthquake, landslide, tsunami, windstorm, flood or drought) that has the potential to cause harm or loss, while a natural disaster is the occurrence of an extreme hazard event that impacts on communities causing damage, disruption and casualties, and leaving the affected communities unable to function normally without outside assistance (Twig, 2007). The definition of natural disaster impact (NDI) can change according to both the aim of the study and the scientist assessing it. It can be defined as constituting the direct, indirect and intangible losses caused on environment and society by a natural disaster (Swiss Re, 1998). Direct losses include physical effects such as destruction and changes that reduce the functionality of an individual or structure. Damages to people (death/injury), buildings, their contents, and vehicles are included, as are clean-up and disposal costs. Indirect losses affect society by disrupting or damaging utility services and local businesses. Loss of revenue; increase in cost; expenses connected to the provision of assistance, lodging, and drinking water; and costs associated with the need to drive longer distances because of blocked roads are included. Intangible losses include psychological impairments caused by both direct and intangible losses that individuals personally suffer during the disaster. The Natural Disaster Impact Assessment (NDIA) is crucial in helping individuals to estimate replacement costs and to conduct cost-benefit analyses in allotting resources to prevent and mitigate the consequences of damage (UNEP-ECLAC, 2000). A general NDIA procedure has not yet been developed; several approaches are available in literature and their applicability depends on the accessibility of damage data. Possible end users of NDIA include the following (Lindell & Prater, 2003): 1. Governments, with an interest in estimating direct losses to report to taxpayers and to identify segments of the community that have been (or might be) disproportionately affected 2. Community leaders, who may need to use loss data after a disaster strikes to determine if external assistance is necessary and, if so, how much. 3. Planners, who can develop damage predictions to assess the effects of alternative hazard adjustments. Knowing both the expected losses and the extent to which those losses could be reduced makes it possible to implement cost-effective mitigation strategies. 4. Insurers, who need data on the maximum losses in their portfolios to guarantee their solvency or even to undertake additional measures to alleviate the risk that they would face in case of a disaster (i.e., the use of catastrophe bonds which are risk-linked securities that transfer a specified set of risks from a sponsor to investors) (Noy & Nualsri, 2011). Data availability and reliability, especially for old events, represent constraints in the NDIA context because of several issues of very different type: 1. Data availability, for current events, depends on the time at which data gathering started. It is impossible to decide a priori when data have to be gathered: it primarily depends on the type of phenomenon causing the disaster and its magnitude, and secondly on the scope of the assessment (for example, the assessment should not be unnecessarily delayed as there is an urgent need to elicit support from the international community) (ECLAC, 2003). 2. Long-term losses must sometimes be determined over a period of years. Slow landslides, for example, can cause damage over long periods. Intangible damage like disaster-related stress also requires years to be detected (Bland et al., 1996). 3. In most countries, there are no agencies responsible for gathering damage data. Damage caused by severest events can be mined from international databases, while data on less severe events can be obtained by means of specific historical studies. 4. Data on property damage can depreciate the value of property, thus they would not be available or not completely reliable (Highland, 2003). 5. For some type of disasters, as landslides or floods, the costs of damages to structures such as roads are often merged with maintenance costs and are therefore not labelled as damage. In addition, when heavy rains trigger both landslides and floods (Petrucci and Polemio, 2009), it is difficult to separate landslide damage from flood damage. 6. Developing countries have an incentive to exaggerate damage to receive higher amounts of international assistance; thus, in these cases, data may not be entirely reliable (Toya & Skidmore, 2007). This chapter starts with a panoramic of the different approaches reported in the literature to assess the impact of natural disasters, and then presents some simplified approaches to perform a relative and comparative assessment of the impact caused by phenomena as landslides and floods triggered by heavy rainfall during events defined as Damaging Hydrogeological Events. Finally, some indices to assess the relative impact of landslides are presented. 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8389 Title: Platinum levels in natural and urban soils from Rome and Latium (Italy): significance for pollution by automobile catalytic converter. Authors: Cinti, D.; aDipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Universita` ‘La Sapienza’, 00185 Rome, Italy; Angelone, M.; ENEA; Masi, U.; University of Rome "La Sapienza"; Cremisini, C. Abstract: Platinum concentrations in topsoil samples collected in 1992 (48) and in 2001 (16) from the urban area of Rome have been determined by ICP–MS.Concentrations in 47 soil samples collected in 1992 from natural sites of Latium (an area around Rome) have been determined for a first assessment of natural background levels.The Pt concentrations in Rome urban soils collected in 1992 range from 0.8 to 6.3 ngyg ( s3.8"1.0) overlapping the concentration range ¯X of natural soils from Latium ( s3.1"2.1 ngyg).No significant correlation has generally been found between Pt ¯X contents in the ‘natural’ soils and related bedrock or major pedogenetic parameters.These results suggest that there is no evidence of Pt pollution in Rome urban soils at that time, because the massive use of the automobile catalytic converter has only just started.Higher (up to six times more) Pt concentrations, than those measured in the 1992 samples, have been measured, in some cases, in Rome urban soils collected in 2001, suggesting a possible start of Pt accumulation because of the large-scale use in the last decade of automobile catalytic converters.At the same time, a clear decrease of lead levels in Rome urban soils with respect to the levels measured in 1992 has been observed, paralleling the decreasing number of lead gasoline-fuelled cars.Her e we present one of the first systematic studies for defining background levels of Pt in Italian natural soils, thus allowing for monitoring, in the future, should any possible Pt pollution caused by the use of automobile catalytic converter, especially in urban soils, occur. 2001-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8307 Title: How do volcanic rift zones relate to flank instability? Evidence from collapsing rifts at Etna Authors: Ruch, J.; Dipartimento Scienze Geologiche, Università Roma Tre, Roma, Italy; Pepe, S.; National Research Council (CNR), Istituto per il Rilevamento Elettromagnetico dell'Ambiente (IREA), Napoli, Italy; Casu, F.; National Research Council (CNR), Istituto per il Rilevamento Elettromagnetico dell'Ambiente (IREA), Napoli, Italy; Acocella, V.; Dipartimento Scienze Geologiche, Università Roma Tre, Roma, Italy; Neri, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; Solaro, G.; National Research Council (CNR), Istituto per il Rilevamento Elettromagnetico dell'Ambiente (IREA), Napoli, Italy; Sansosti, E.; National Research Council (CNR), Istituto per il Rilevamento Elettromagnetico dell'Ambiente (IREA), Napoli, Italy Abstract: Volcanic rift zones, characterized by repeated dike emplacements, are expected to delimit the upper portion of unstable flanks at basaltic edifices. We use nearly two decades of InSAR observations excluding wintertime acquisitions, to analyze the relationships between rift zones, dike emplacement and flank instability at Etna. The results highlight a general eastward shift of the volcano summit, including the northeast and south rifts. This steadystate eastward movement (1-2 cm/yr) is interrupted or even reversed during transient dike injections. Detailed analysis of the northeast rift shows that only during phases of dike injection, as in 2002, does the rift transiently becomes the upper border of the unstable flank. The flank's steady-state eastward movement is inferred to result from the interplay between magmatic activity, asymmetric topographic unbuttressing, and east-dipping detachment geometry at its base. This study documents the first evidence of steady-state volcano rift instability interrupted by transient dike injection at basaltic edifices. 2012-09-18T22:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8228 Title: Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily – Italy Authors: Grezio, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Gasparini, P.; Università di Napoli - Federico II; Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Patera, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Tinti, S.; Università di Bologna Abstract: We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probabil- ity Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (res- idential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a fac- tor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur. 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8225 Title: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Messina Strait Area (Sicily, Italy) Authors: Grezio, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Sandri, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Argnani, A.; CNR-Bologna; Gasparini, P.; Università di Napoli- Federico II; Selva, J.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Abstract: The general modular Bayesian procedure is applied to provide a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Messina Strait Area (MSA), Italy. This is the first study in an Italian area where the potential tsunamigenic events caused by both submarine seismic sources (SSSs) and submarine mass failures (SMFs) are examined in a probabilistic assessment. The SSSs are localized on active faults in MSA as indicated by the instrumental data of the catalogue of the Italian seismicity; the SMFs are spatially identified using their propensity to failure in the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Seas on the basis of mean slope and mean depth, and using marine geology background knowledge. In both cases the associated probability of occurrence is provided. The run-ups were calculated at key sites that are main cities and/or important sites along the Eastern Sicily and the Southern Calabria coasts where tsunami events were recorded in the past. The posterior probability distribution combines the prior probability and the likelihood calculated in the MSA. The prior probability is based on the physical model of the tsunami process, and the likelihood is based on the historical data collected by the historical catalogues, background knowledge, and marine geological information. The posterior SSSs and SMFs tsunami probabilities are comparable and are combined to produce a final probability for a full PTHA in MSA. 2011-12-31T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8222 Title: A Brownian Model for Recurrent Volcanic Eruptions: an Application to Miyakejima Volcano (Japan) Authors: Garcia-Aristizabal, A.; Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA); Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Fujita, E.; National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) Abstract: The definition of probabilistic models as mathematical structures to describe the response of a volcanic system is a plausible approach to characterize the temporal behavior of volcanic eruptions, and constitutes a tool for long-term eruption forecasting. This kind of approach is motivated by the fact that volcanoes are complex systems in which a com- pletely deterministic description of the processes preceding eruptions is practically impos- sible. To describe recurrent eruptive activity we apply a physically-motivated probabilistic model based on the characteristics of the Brownian passage-time (BPT) distribution; the physical process defining this model can be described by the steady rise of a state variable from a ground state to a failure threshold; adding Brownian perturbations to the steady load- ing produces a stochastic load-state process (a Brownian relaxation oscillator) in which an eruption relaxes the load state to begin a new eruptive cycle. The Brownian relaxation os- cillator and Brownian passage-time distribution connect together physical notions of unob- servable loading and failure processes of a point process with observable response statistics. The Brownian passage-time model is parameterized by the mean rate of event occurrence, μ , and the aperiodicity about the mean, α . We apply this model to analyze the eruptive his- tory of Miyakejima volcano, Japan, finding a value of 44.2(±6.5 years) for the μ parameter and 0.51(±0.01) for the (dimensionless) α parameter. The comparison with other models often used in volcanological literature shows that this pysically-motivated model may be a good descriptor of volcanic systems that produce eruptions with a characteristic size. BPT is clearly superior to the exponential distribution and the fit to the data is comparable to other two-parameters models. Nonetheless, being a physically-motivated model, it provides an insight into the macro-mechanical processes driving the system. 2012-02-29T23:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8221 Title: Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy Authors: Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; Garcia-Aristizabal, A.; Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA); Gasparini, P.; Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA); Mastellone, M. L.; Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Seconda Universita' di Napoli; Di Ruocco, A.; Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA) Abstract: The assessment of the impact of different catastrophic events in a given area requires innovative approaches that allow risks comparison and that account for all the possible risk interactions. In the common practice, the risk evaluation related to different sources is generally done through independent analyses, adopting disparate procedures and time–space resolutions. Such a strategy of risks evaluation has some evident major drawbacks as, for example, it is difficult (if not impossible) to compare the risk of different origins, and the implicit assumption of independence of the risk sources leads to neglect possible interactions among threats and/or cascade effects. The latter may amplify the overall risk, and potentially the multi-risk index could be higher than the simple aggre- gation of single-risk indexes calculated considering each source as independent from the others. In this paper, we put forward some basic principles for multi-risk assessment, and we consider a real application to Casalnuovo municipality (Southern Italy), in which we face the problem to make different hazards comparable, and we highlight when and how possible interactions among different threats may become important. 2012-05-31T22:00:00Z