http://hdl.handle.net/2122/167 Search the Channel search http://www.earth-prints.org/simple-search http://hdl.handle.net/2122/2591 Title: Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multi-Model-Ensemble Study <br/> <br/>Authors: Collins, M.; Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Botzet, M.; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany; Carril, A. F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Drange, H.; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Jouzeau, A.; CERFACS, Toulouse, France; Latif, M.; Max-Planck-Institut für Meterologie, Hamburg, and Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Kiel, Germany; Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Otteraa, O. H.; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Pohlmann, H.; Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada; Sorteberg, A.; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Sutton, R.; Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Reading, United Kingdom; Terray, L.; CERFACS, Toulouse, France <br/> <br/>Abstract: Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere–ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system. http://hdl.handle.net/2122/2557 Title: Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System: Toward Environmental Predictions-MFSTEP Executive Summary <br/> <br/>Authors: Pinardi, N.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Coppini, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; MFSTEP Partners; MFSTEP <br/> <br/>Abstract: Objectives: The Project aims at the further development of an operational forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea based upon three main components: a) a Real Time-RT Observing system; b) a numerical forecasting system at the basin scale and for the sub-regional/shelf areas; c) the forecast products dissemination/exploitation system. The Observing system component consists of: • a SOOP-VOS system with RT data dissemination and test of new sensors that collect multidisciplinary data; • a moored buoy network (M3A) designed to serve the RT validation of the basin scale models and the calibration of the ecosystem models; • a satellite RT data analysis system using several satellites for sea surface elevation, sea surface temperature and sea surface winds; • a high space-time resolution network of autonomous subsurface profiling floats (Array for Real-Time Geostrophic Oceanography-ARGO); • a basin scale glider autonomous vehicle experiment; The sampling strategy is continuously assessed by the Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) activities and a RT data management and delayed mode archiving system has been organized. http://hdl.handle.net/2122/2477 Title: Flow changes and geochemical anomalies in warm and cold springs associated with the 1992-1994 seismic sequence at Pollina, central Sicily, Italy <br/> <br/>Authors: Favara, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Palermo, Palermo, Italia; Grassa, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Palermo, Palermo, Italia; Madonia, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Palermo, Palermo, Italia; Valenza, M.; Dipartimento CFTA-University of Palermo, <br/> <br/>Abstract: During a three-years discontinuous geochemical monitoring of some warm springs and cold discharges located in central-northern Sicily, some hydro-geochemical changes were observed. Excluding a possible related to a moderate seismic activity were accidentally identified. The observed anomalies showed amplitudes that were modulated by the different geometries and volumes of the feeding aquifers. A poroelastic aquifer contraction, a shaking-induced dilatancy theory as well as seismogenetic-induced changes in the properties of the aquifers have been proposed as possible mechanisms for the water flow and hydro-geochemical changes. These preliminary results could be used to design a monitoring network aimed at surveilling the seismic activity of the studied area from a geochemical standpoint. http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1326 Title: Flood forecasting in the Tiber catchment area: a methodological analysis <br/> <br/>Authors: Calenda, G.; Università di <<Roma Tre>>, Dipartimento di Scienze dell'Ingegneria Civile, Roma, Italy; Casaioli, M.; CNR, Istituto di Fisica dell'Atmosfera, Roma, Italy; Cosentino, C.; Università di <<Roma Tre>>, Dipartimento di Scienze dell'Ingegneria Civile, Roma, Italy; Mantovani, R.; Università di Bologna, Dipartimento di Fisica, Bologna, Italy; Speranza, A.; Università di Camerino, Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Camerino, Italy <br/> <br/>Abstract: The most difficult step in hydrological forecasting is precipitation forecast, since rain is the most irregular and least predictable meteorological field. Numerical meteorological models are the main tool to forecast the precipitation field over river basins where floods may be expected. Object of this paper is a preliminary analysis of the appropriate methodological approach to flood forecasting in the Tiber River basin. An assessment of the flood forecasting skill of a meteorological limited area model, coupled with a lumped rainfall-runoff model, is performed. The main indications which seem to arise are that integral precipitation over the catchment area is adequately forecast in its time-evolution, but the total rainfall shows a systematic deficit with respect to observations.