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Ruscica, R.
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- PublicationRestrictedPrecipitation extremes over La Plata Basin –Review and new results from observations and climate simulations(2015)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Cavalcanti, I.; Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (CPTEC/INPE), Brazil ;Carril, A.; CIMA/CONICET-UBA, Argentina ;Penalba, O.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Grimm, A.; Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil ;Menendez, C.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Sanchez, E.; University of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain ;Cherchi, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Sorrenson, A.; CIMA/CONICET-UBA, Argentina ;Robledo, F.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Rivera, J.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Pantano, V.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Bettolli, L. M.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Zaninelli, P.; CIMA/CONICET-UBA, Argentina ;Zamboni, L.; Argonne National Laboratory, MCS Division, USA ;Tedeschi, R.; Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (CPTEC/INPE), Brazil ;Dominguez, M.; University of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain ;Ruscica, R.; CIMA/CONICET-UBA, Argentina ;Flach, R.; Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Monthly and daily precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin (LPB) are analyzed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project. A review of the studies developed during the project and results of additional research are presented and discussed. Specific aspects of analysis are focused on large-scale versus local processes impacts on the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB, and on the assessment of specific wet and dry spell indices and their changed characteristics in future climate scenarios. The analysis is shown for both available observations of precipitation in the region and ad-hoc global and regional models experiments. The Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans can all impact precipitation intensity and frequency over LPB. In particular, considering the Pacific sector, different types of ENSO events (i.e. canonical vs Modoki or East vs Central) have different influences. Moreover, model projections indicate an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB during El Niño and La Ninã events in future climate. Local forcings can also be important for precipitation extremes. Here, the feedbacks between soil moisture and extreme precipitation in LPB are discussed based on hydric conditions in the region and model sensitivity experiments. Concerning droughts, it was found that they were more frequent in the western than in the eastern sector of LPB during the period of 1962–2008. On the other hand, observations and model experiments agree in that the monthly wet extremes were more frequent than the dry extremes in the northern and southern LPB sectors during the period 1979–2001, with higher frequency in the south.116 24 - PublicationRestrictedExtreme events in the La Plata basin: a retrospective analysis of what we have learned during CLARIS-LPB project(2016)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ;Extreme climate events over the La Plata basin (LPB) can produce significant impacts due to the importance of the regional agriculture and hydroelectric power production for the local economy. Progress on describing, projecting and understanding extremes in LPB, in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin Project, are reviewed. The paper is based on recent studies and publications, as well as some new diagnostics as indicators of works in progress, and can be considered as an update for the LPB region of previous reviews by Cavalcanti et al. (2015; J Hydrol 523:211–230) and Rusticucci (2012; Atmos Res 106:1–17. Despite the significant advances on regional extremes, some gaps have been identified, and many challenges remain. Much of the recent progress considers temperature and precipitation extremes on timescales varying from synoptic to long-term variability and climate change, essential for impact and vulnerability assessments. Research lines on extremes requiring further efforts include the relative roles of local versus remote forcings, the impact of land use and land management changes, the specific role of soil moisture and land-atmosphere feedbacks as catalysts for heat waves, the impact of the local inhomogeneities in soil moisture, feedback and uncertainties in projections of extremes, as well as seasonal forecast and climate change attribution studies. We suggest combining intensive monitoring and modelling to address these issues.58 2